What People Are Saying About Talking Points:

"Best report that I receive. Comprehensive, easy to understand and extremely useful."


Being a subscriber from outside the U.S. most of the information relating to specific stocks is of no use to me, but the comments on the broad U.S. market activity, gold, and the TA columns are very interesting and helpful when doing research and formulating an opinion on what's going on and what may occur. From someone who wouldn't get as much out of it as your 'home' subscibers, I still find it worth a read. A good read, guaranteed. Thanks and keep up the great work.

-Grant and Lisa Middleton

(Use the submenu at left for navigation in the Members Only Section.)
For the previous week's Premium Edition Talking Points, click HERE.

September 6, 2004


Issue #133

Greg Fry
   Greg Fry

Latest Updates:

No new updates this week.

Thanks again for subscribing to Talking Points Premium Edition!



Back to top

Click above for details on October's EXPO!

WEEK ON WALL STREET: Week In Review  /   by Bob Coppo

Back to top

Our new Week on Wall Street columnist is Bob Coppo. Bob is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

Bob Coppo
Week on Wall Street
The Week on Wall Street

Friday's Action:   Stocks finished in the red after a sales warning from Intel spooked investors. The decline was tempered, however, by an August employment report that mostly met expectations. Major world markets reported mixed results on Friday. London's FTSE closed up 0.64%; Frankfurt's DAX finished higher by 0.98%, and Paris' CAC 40 closed up 0.95%. Japan's Nikkei closed down 1.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.39%, and Sydney's All Ordinaries finished lower by 0.29%. In economic news, Nonfarm Payrolls in August rose by 144,000 jobs and the July number was revised to 73,000 from 32,000 jobs; the Unemployment Rate dipped to 5.4%, its lowest since Sep of 2001; Hourly Earnings showed a gain of 0.3%. The ISM Services index in Aug slipped to 58.2 from 64.8, lower than expected. Volume came in at 0.92 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.25 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was negative, with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by 1.42, and down volume over up volume by 1.41; Nasdaq declining issues over advancing issues by 1.61, and down volume over up volume by 6.39. Leading sectors were Oil services, +1.59%, REITs, +0.59% and Insurance, +0.20%. Laggards were Semiconductors, -5.23%, Comp Tech, -2.44% and Networkers, -2.31%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 23 pts lower to settle at 1375, while the S&P's settled down 5.20 pts at 1114.40.

Weekly Recap:   Stocks finished mixed in a week marked by extremely low volume and low volatility, ending with every major index having changed less than 1%. Of the weeks major events, Intel's disappointing guidance on Thursday sent most tech stocks lower.

In economic news, the monthly jobs report showed good progress on all fronts and was a modest, but positive report on the economy. Terrorism was a non-event, at least in the US. Chechen terrorists took over a school in Russia and more than 100 persons have been killed. However, the event did not seem to create a rising fear of terrorism in the US. The Republican National Convention ended without incident, although hundreds of protesters were arrested. Hurricane Francis appears likely to cause massive damage in Florida over the weekend.

The oil price ended its precipitous decline to finish the week higher by 2.4%, but its rebound had little effect on investors. With the Yukos situation apparently back in play and an Iraqi pipeline explosion in Northern Iraq however, the bullish oil bias is likely to continue next week and could start effecting stocks once again.

For the week, the Dow gained +0.6%, the S&P 500 finished +0.5% higher, while the Nasdaq gave back -0.9%. The small cap Russell 2000 rose +0.8%. Next week will be a shortened trading week with the markets closed Monday for Labor Day. The economic calendar is sparse, with jobless claims on Thursday and the Producer Price Index and Trade Balance on Friday.

The Dollar and the Dow:   Over the past 18 months or so, we have seen a strong inverse correlation between the US Dollar and the US stock market, i.e., when the Dollar declines, the market rises and vice versa. The chart below clearly shows that the recovery of the Dow Industrials off its May low was accompanied by weakness in the Dollar, while the preceding decline in the Dow was accompanied by a strengthening dollar. So if the Dollar has just bottomed and is about to rally again, as the chart would indicate, then any rebound by the stock market will most likely be short lived. While there could be a bit more downside to the dollar over the short term, this week's action clearly demonstrates that the inter-market relationship that has been in play over the past year and a half is still valid. A resumption of the Dollar's post-February recovery could pose a real problem for the US stock market going forward.

Improving the MTI:   This is an update of a report we issued in July.

In our continuing efforts to improve the quality of our market timing services for our members, we recently made some enhancements to our Market Trend Indicator (MTI). The MTI is an intermediate term trend indicator for the general US stock market. Based on the trends of more than 8,000 underlying stocks, it generates buy and sell signals for the major market averages. We've been tracking the results of the enhanced indicator in real time since mid-May. Since the MTI is an end-of-day indicator, index fund traders must wait until the next trading day to enter and exit their trades. The table below shows the results trading the two beta Rydex Velocity and Venture funds the day after the MTI signal is generated.

Signal Enter Exit Fund Buy Sell % Gain Cum %
5/19/04 5/20/04 6/10/04 RYVYX 17.53 19.63 +12.0% +12.0%
6/09/04 6/10/04 6/21/04 RYVNX 24.96 25.88 +3.7% +16.1%
6/18/04 6/21/04 7/02/04 RYVYX 18.87 19.54 +3.6% +20.2%
7/01/04 7/02/04 7/21/04 RYVNX 24.87 28.21 +13.4% +36.4%
7/20/04 7/21/04 7/22/04 RYVYX 17.07 17.61 +3.2% +40.7%
7/21/04 7/22/04 7/29/04 RYVNX 27.35 27.64 +1.1% +42.2%
7/28/04 7/29/04 8/05/04 RYVYX 17.34 16.21 -6.5% +32.9%
8/04/04 8/05/04 8/17/04 RYVNX 29.46 30.11 +2.2% +35.9%
8/16/04 8/17/04 Open RYVYX 15.75 16.56 +5.1% +42.8%

While the test period is rather short, it does indicate that trading the next day has little effect on performance. The indicator is updated daily and is available to subscribers of our Basic Service. To learn more about the MTI and the other market timing indicators available to our subscribers, click HERE.

The COT Report:   The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers bought some 7,700 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -10,141 contracts. Large Traders remained net short -19,636 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +29,777 contracts held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold some 600 contracts to bring their net long position to +4,756 contracts. Small Traders were net long +4,063 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money sell some 500 contracts to bring their long position to +4,565 contracts.

Commercial Hedgers were better buyers in the S&P's last week, while Small Traders were better sellers. For the short term, their action is seen as potentially bullish, but for the intermediate term, their opposing net positions should still be considered bearish.

Sentiment Surveys:   The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed that the percentage of bullish newsletter writers came in at 42.6%, while the percentage of bears registered 27.7%. The bullish ratio (bulls/bulls +bears) remains high at 61.2%.

The latest AAII survey showed a decrease to 42% bulls, and an increase to 28% bears. The bullish ratio came in at 60%, while the 4-week moving registered 56%. One thing to note about the AAII survey is that, while membership in this organization is quite large as investor groups go, the number of members that actually participate in the survey is very small. Thus, large fluctuations in survey results from week to week are not uncommon.

The latest Market Vane survey came in at 61%, indicating that the majority of commodity trading advisors (CTA's) remain bullish on the future direction of the S&P's.

The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days:   Friday's price action favors making lower lows on Tuesday. The big loser Friday was the Semiconductor Index, which dropped over 5% on the Intel sell-off. INTC, of course, gapped lower at the open Friday and finished down 7.3% on heavy volume. Both INTC and the SOX ended up being deeply oversold, which is just the place we would expect to see bargain hunters emerge. The last time INTC gapped down back in July, it traded lower for two more days before finding a footing, so we may see a little more selling this time also.

The Nasdaq 100 tracking stock (QQQ) also sold off, losing over 1.8%, but on average volume. That is to say, we didn't see any panic selling in the Q's on Friday. The QQQ has a degree of support around the 34 level and we suspect it will tend to hold back further selling next week.

SMT's Pivot Point Forecast; 1-2 Weeks:   Our Pivot Point RS indicator generated a SELL signal on Aug 20th. Our next Pivot Point is forecast to occur on or near Sep 8th.

The 60-mn NDX chart below shows that the StochRSI indicator is in the BUY zone. For Tuesday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 1122 and then 1128. Support lies at 1108 and then 1102. For the Naz, resistance comes in at 1399 and then 1403. Support lies at 1361 and then 1354.

The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks:   The chart below shows a 10-day simple moving average of the daily Nasdaq New Highs minus New Lows. The significant thing to notice about the chart is that the indicator has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows off the January top. Until the NHNL indicator breaks out and establishes a higher high, the Nasdaq is likely to continue to bump and grind its way lower.

Market Trend Indicator:   Our Market Trend Indicator (MTI) generated a BUY signal on Aug 16th and trended slightly higher on Friday.

Good Trading!

Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:

LAST WEEK'S PICKS: Breaking Even

Back to top

Last week's shorting of the Q's paid off with a slim 1.2% profit over the five sessions, with the index closing near intraweek lows on Friday. We foresee a continued trend lower over the near term, and would let the trade continue on the short side until renewed buying volume becomes more evident.

Have you traded any of our recommended plays along the way? We'd love to hear from you and how you did. Please send your stories to comments@talkingpoints.com.

TECH WATCH: Health Care Industry Needs Tech Overhaul / by Jeff Neal, Technical Market Columnist

Back to top

Jeff Neal is a veteran options strategist and trader with over a decade of experience in the trading business. Jeff has had a diversified business career operating a very successful management consulting business with his clients representing some of the largest companies in the world.

He has a B.S. in Computer Science from Indiana University and an MBA in Finance from the University of Indianapolis. Jeff is a writer, mentor, and options strategist for Optionetics (http://www.optionetics.com/) and as head of his own hedge fund is an active options trader in both the equity and futures markets.

Jeff Neal - Staff Writer & Options Strategist - Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

Jeff Neal
Tech Watch

Health Care Industry Needs Tech Overhaul

By Jeff Neal

Productivity and costs reductions have been enhanced by technology in virtually every industry in the United States. However, the health care industry still applies antiquated technologies, with a large segment still operating on paper. A regular visit to the physician’s office requires the patient to fill out numerous forms, and communication between other offices is very poor. This has led to excessive costs and poor patient care in general.

Technical experts agree: if the health care industry were revamped and properly applied the latest technologies, that cost could be reduced by as much as 30 percent, with a significant improvement in patient care as well. These studies have prompted Mr. Bush and the White House to set a goal of having no more patient paper trails within the next 10 years and that every American would instead have an electronic medical record. As a result there are several bills now being considered which tout the implementation of some major technology projects within the health care industry.

Even with strong backing from the federal government the technical retooling of this industry still remains a daunting task. The difficulty resides in the fact that the health care sector is extremely large and very fragmented. There are more than 710,00 doctors and 5,800 hospitals that store and organize data using their own methods and standards. It is this lack of conformity and no common standards that poses the greatest challenge. In addition, you have the economic factor of upgrading to new hardware and software that has to be shouldered by hospitals and doctors. Even with the reduction of errors and improved efficiency, there is definitely an initial period of time where productivity will suffer when converting to the new work procedures.

However, regardless of the obstacles, it is clear that something has to be done. Consider that a recent survey showed more than 90 percent of the 31 billion health care transactions completed yearly happen via the phone, fax or paper. Technology leaders as well as political officials in Washington clearly recognize the need for this industry to upgrade. Government officials say the nation could save over $140 billion a year by upgrading the technology used in the health care sector.

And the actual patient care would improve dramatically. According to a study done by the Institute of Medicine, medical errors were responsible for more than 50,000 deaths in U.S. hospitals. By adopting up-to-date computer systems, this number could be reduced by preventing a patient being prescribed a drug that might react badly with another drug. The new technology would greatly improve the quality of patient care.

For some hospitals that have already upgraded their technology the results have been impressive. The recent implementation at El Camino hospital in California claims that now 97 percent of all orders by more than 200 doctors are done electronically; as a result, medical errors have been reduced to 4 per 1,000 patient days, which is down from the previous 13 per 1,000 patient days.

These types of stories are prompting government and health care leaders to accelerate technology upgrade projects across the country. If done properly, the reward will be extremely high—not only in pure monetary terms, but also by saving lives.

Happy Trading.

MARKET TA: Riding the Waves / by Dale Woodson, Technical Market Columnist

Back to top

Dale Woodson is the editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

We encourage our subscribers to visit his site at http://www.woodsonwave.com and please see Dale's complete bio following his column.

Dale Woodson

Dale Woodson
Market TA columnist

TIMER DIGEST’S (P.O. BOX 1688, Greenwich, CT. 06836/ 203-629-3503)

#9 STOCK MARKET TIMER: 6/18/03 – 6/18/04.
#5 GOLD MARKET TIMER: 6/18/03 – 6/18/04.
















Year 2012



1932 or 1942


Year 2012*



12/6/74 or 8/12/82


Year 2012





.618 = 5803





Complete @ 8062 on 9/21/01





Complete @ 10,673 on 3/19/02





Complete @ 7197 on 10/10/02





Complete @ 10,753 on 2/19/04





 .500 = 6865/ .618 = 5803





Year 2012

* "…it should terminate about the year 2012"

* "...not expected to terminate until about 2012"

R. N. Elliott, Educational Bulletin O

R.N. Elliott, Interpretive Letter No. 17

October 26, 1942.



August 25, 1941.

Primary degree wave 2 down (1987 - 1990) running flat correction.

Primary degree wave 3 up (1990 - 1999)



Primary degree wave 4 down (8/24/99 -?)





Since our fibonacci turning point high in February, we have been able to count five-waves to the downside in several instances, indicating that indeed, the main direction of the trend is down. The price action since the Dow broke from its months long trading range provides more evidence of the same. As the chart above illustrates, wave four up in a five-wave decline appears complete or nearly so.

The high as of today (8/11/04) 9953 is just three ticks shy of closing the gap left by wave three down at 9956. Once that gap is closed, we expect wave five down to new lows below the wave three low of 9793 to unfold. Looks like an excellent opportunity for a short term short play here. Of course, once five waves to the downside are complete, we look for the market to correct that decline in a three-wave advance.


In the July report, we detailed the correction from the April 1 high as it relates to the previous five-wave advance. Keep in mind, gold is in a bull market. We saw gold move from around $320 per ounce in April of last year to $430 per ounce at the April high of this year. That’s a 34% increase in exactly one year! The decline from the April high is a downward correction in a bull market. This correction should take the form of three waves – wave a down, wave b up, and finally wave c down. As the chart below illustrates, waves a down and b up appear complete. Now we await the culmination of wave c down to near $362. Once complete, expect gold to reverse course and continue the bull market run to new all time highs.


The July report detailed the price action of the bond market from the high of last June. The short-term tradable bounce appeared complete near our fibonacci .382-retracement level. The bad news is that since that report bonds have continued higher. The good news is that it looks like bonds have now reversed course near the fibonacci .618 retracement level of the previous decline at the 111-30 high registered on August 6, 2004 basis the September contract. Therefore, we will remain short the bond market in anticipation of wave b down at a minimum. Remain short.

Positions for rating services:

The “positions for rating services” below are assumed positions taken for rating services such as Timer Digest to rate our newsletter and rank us against other market timing newsletters. While the Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci ratios have implications regarding the overall direction and turning points in the markets, a reader is not justified

in inferring that any trading advice is given. Woodson Wave Report, LLC does not offer specific trading recommendations.

Long-term counts are found on weekly and/or monthly charts and generally cover a time period of years to decades.

Intermediate-term counts are found on daily and/or weekly charts and generally cover a time period of weeks to years.

Short-term counts are found on daily and/or hourly charts and generally cover a time period of days to hours.


Long term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows.
Intermediate term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Short term: Remain short, as the anticipated short-term bounce appears complete.


Long term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Intermediate term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Short term: Remain short.

S&P 500:

Long term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows.
Intermediate term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Short term: Remain short.

Bonds: Remain short.

Gold: Remain short as wave c down to near $362 unfolds.

Dale Woodson is editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

Timer Digest rates Woodson Wave Report as the #5 stock market timer and #5 bond market timer for the three-year period from 12/31/98 through 12/31/2001. Woodson broke into the top ten rated stock market timers by placing #7 in the year 2000. He followed that up with a #4 rating for the year in 2001. These ratings were achieved during a period when market timing was extremely difficult as the bull market was turning over to bear and most were caught off guard.

While there is no feeling like catching a turn on the dime, Dale especially enjoys writing the newsletter. He is most proud of the numerous correspondences complimenting him on his writing abilities. He has a real passion for his work. He knows that the market will move in certain Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci sequences. His challenge is to identify those patterns and sequences in advance, while there is still time to profit from them.

Woodson Wave Report offers monthly, quarterly and yearly subscriptions. Newsletters are delivered via email and URL links and are published on the first Friday of every month. Special interim reports are released as market conditions warrant and targets are achieved. All new annual subscribers receive two months free.

You can subscribe to Woodson Wave Report via the secure online order form link below: http://www.woodsonwave.com/orderform.html

Disclaimer: The Woodson Wave Report combines Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci ratios to identify turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 cash, bond and gold markets with respect to both price and time. The monthly newsletter is generally released on the first Friday of the month and special interim reports are issued as market conditions warrant and as targets are achieved. The information contained in the report is prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be taken as an offer to buy or sell any investment vehicle. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Woodson Wave Report is waived of any liabilities.

GOLD RUSH: Golden Crossroads Revisited / by John Dowdee, Ph.D., Gold Editor

Back to top

Golden Crossroads Revisited

I am off on a Labor Day vacation, away from quote machines and the internet. Therefore this commentary is being written on Thursday, 3 September and does not reflect the action last Friday.

The previous commentary noted that both gold and the dollar were at crossroads. Unfortunately, last week did not provide a clear vision of which path the bull will choose. The fact that bullion consolidated above $400 was positive but it was disappointing when the yellow metal could not mount a sustained push above the $410 resistance levels. After briefly rising to $413, gold quickly fell back and closed at $407.50, near the low for the week.

The action in the dollar also did not provide any definitive guidance on whether the bull or bear will prevail. The dollar dropped on Monday but then bounced off the 200 day moving average and consolidated the rest of the week. As long as the greenback remains above support (around 88.60), the bull stays alive and well.

Gold stocks, as measured by the XAU, mirrored the action in gold. The XAU opened the week at 94.73 and closed (on Thursday) at 94.51. This action can be characterized by one word: Boring!

The only bright part of the week was that our Newmont (NEM) trade continued to increase profits. As you may recall, we bought NEM when it retraced to the bottom of the upward gap (about $42.75). Newmont continued its upward trek to close at $44.49.

Where do we go from here? In my opinion, the gold bull is just resting and the upward march will begin again soon. Only an extended drop below $400 would cause me to move to the sidelines. I think the gold train is about to leave the station. If you are not already on board, now may be the time to buy a ticket! But as I always warn, you should never rely solely on my (or anyone else’s) opinion. Gold is risky and only you can decide if it is the right investment for you. You should do your own due diligence and evaluate your risk tolerance before making decisions to buy (or sell) any stocks or funds. Best of luck and have a wonderful Labor Day!

MR. SWING'S PLACE: Weekly Swing Trading Ideas / by Larry Swing

Back to top

Each week, Mr. Swing analyzes his database of more than 9,200 securities to scan for swing trading opportunities. But be warned: Do not expect a fast way to make money. Mr. Swing is going to show you how you can accumulate small gains weekly, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach. While he realizes that this short-term swingtrading approach is not for everyone, he hopes that the information given at MrSWING.com will be useful to you in the near future...

These are your Swing Trading Opportunities for this week:

Talking Points member - Over the nearly two years that we have carried the Mr. Swing's Place column, Larry's picks have consistently put in great performances. Don't miss out on the full swing-trading content available at Mr. Swing.com. Take advantage of some of the great programs available by clicking here.

Long Swings:


^ click here
GTK,GTECH Holdings
TZOO,Travelzoo Inc
PEG,Public Svc Enterprises
PNC,PNC Financial Services Group
NLY,Annaly Mortgage Mgmt


Short Swings:


^ click here
CCU,Clear Channel Commun
TSN,Tyson FoodsA
ACDO,Accredo Health
IP,Intl Paper
URI,United Rentals

^ click here
NITE,Knight Trading GroupA
SNY,Sanofi-Aventis ADS
PAAS,Pan Amer Silver
ASPT,Aspect Communications

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5
^ click here
IP,Intl Paper
DPH,Delphi Corp
FRED,Freds Inc A
HRB,Block (H&R)

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5
^ click here
GG,Goldcorp Inc
GTK,GTECH Holdings
ADTN,Adtran Inc
CEG,Constellation Energy Group

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1 and HIGH1< HIGH2

^ click here
RHAT,Red Hat Inc
SNPS,Synopsys Inc
RSAS,RSA Security
TSN,Tyson FoodsA
SVU,Supervalu Inc

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH> HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2

^ click here
CTSH,Cognizant Tech SolutionsA
PAAS,Pan Amer Silver
BC,Brunswick Corp
MICU,Vicuron Pharmaceuticals


^ click here
RHAT,Red Hat Inc
SNPS,Synopsys Inc
CCU,Clear Channel Commun
RSAS,RSA Security


^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >= 0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE > SMAC50
^ click here
SMH,Semiconductor HOLDRsTr
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Prod
KLAC,KLA-Tencor Corp
NVLS,Novellus Systems
STA,St. Paul TravelersCos

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1) >= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC50
^ click here
^ click here
TASR,TASER International
RSAS,RSA Security
IVE,iShares S&P 500/BARRA Val Ind
K,Kellogg Co

^ click here
SUN,Sunoco Inc
PNC,PNC Financial Services Group
KWK,Quicksilver Resources
KFT,Kraft FoodsA

^ click here
^ click here
QLGC,QLogic Corp
IYR,iShares DJ US R/E Index Tr

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW )
^ click here
AMD,Advanced Micro Dev

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW)
^ click here

INTC,Intel Corp

^ click here
IVE,iShares S&P 500/BARRA Val Ind
LNG,Cheniere Energy


REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

QCOM (Long)
Larry Swing



Several catalysts currently speak towards stock price appreciation for QCOM:

  • A bull flag
  • Bullish volume
  • Rising analyst estimates

    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index


    We believe this bull flag pattern represents a push against resistance that is met not by selling, and a decline to lower levels, but rather by a period of consolidation during which resistance is weakened by consistent buying pressure.  This is consistent with the strong advance that is followed by consolidation of a relatively small range.


    When the stock price has risen, volume has also risen.  Similarly, when the stock has fallen, volume has also fallen.  This is consistent with investors fearing that they will miss the boat during advances, and not being worried during declines.  We view the volume of the stock as bullish because it shows investor conviction in the stock. 


    Analyst estimates for the current quarter have been raised 4c/share to 29c/share during the past sixty days.  Similarly, expectations for the fiscal year have increased 6c/share, and expectations for the following year have risen by 8c/share.  Rising analyst estimates are generally somewhat useful as a predictive indicator of stock price appreciation.


    Key Levels


    Stop buy:  39.06

    Slightly above the recent highs


    Stop loss:  37.24

    Slightly beneath the lows of consolidation


    Target:  43.97

    Slightly less than the technical target of the bull flag


    Mr.Swing DISCLAIMER: Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MRSWING.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the strategies described above. © Copyright 2002, MrSwing.com. All rights reserved. COPYING AND OR ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF THIS DOCUMENT WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONSENT OF MRSWING.COM IS A VIOLATION OF THE COPYRIGHT LAW.

    THE TRADER'S MINDSET: The Trader Within / by Bennett McDowell, Columnist

    Back to top

    Founder and President of TradersCoach.com, Bennett started his financial career on Wall Street with the firm J.J. Kenny Co. in 1984 after serving as an officer in the U.S. Navy. Bennett also served as a Retirement Plan Specialist with the Equitable in New York and has investment real estate experience as well. In addition, his 1979 Economics BA degree from Syracuse University in upstate New York gave him a foundation on which he was able to build a solid background in Finance.

    Bennett has extensive experience in trading the financial markets and is currently an active trader including day trading the financial futures markets. He also coaches many traders through his company TradersCoach.com.

    Considered an expert in technical analysis and complex computer trading platforms and applications, Bennett has educated and helped traders worldwide improve their trading. Bennett is well known for helping traders overcome sabotaging psychological issues that keep them from reaching their full potential. In addition to his educational and coaching abilities, Bennett, a registered securities broker, manages money and trades for clients throughout the United States.

    Bennett released his home study course Applied Reality Trading, also known as "ART" in January 2002. His cutting-edge course teaches traders his state of the art Pyramid Trading Points, Money management, and developing the "Trader's Mindset." Bennett is also known for developing The Trader's Assistant - a premier trade-posting record-keeping system for traders, as well as writing and publishing The Survival Guide For Traders, a book on how to set up and organize your trading business.

    Bennett provides private consultation/coaching services to many traders throughout the world by telephone, video conferencing, and in person. Working with Bennett, traders spend time focusing on trading system development, trading psychology, and disciplined money management.


    The Trader's Mindset Columnist
    The Trader Within

    By Bennett McDowell, TradersCoach.com

    None of us are born successful traders. Instead we had to find and develop the trader within in us. One of the key ingredients to developing our trader within is to understand ourselves, know our strengths and weaknesses, and apply this knowledge in the market place to produce profits.

    Trading System Mentality

    Many traders believe that profitable trading is just a matter of having a trading system. This trading system mentality falls short of what is really needed to be successful. A quality trading approach combined with risk control and money management is essential, but the real factor in determining your success will come from developing the trader within. The trader within is a culmination of your beliefs, personality, attitude or mindset, character, and health. You cannot buy these at the trading store! Instead you must identify and know yourself, and then if needed make adjustments.

    Align Your Beliefs With Your Trading

    First you must find or develop a trading system that matches your personality and style of trading. Many traders fail because they choose a trading system that is not in alignment with their belief system. For example, chances are if you’re a loner and don’t like crowds, then you will not be a good trend trader where you would be required to follow the crowd of traders to make money by being with this crowd in the trend. Know yourself well enough to know what your beliefs are so you can trade in accordance with them.

    Practice To Compete Against Champion Traders

    You must hone yourself into a trader through education, trading, and then more trading. You must practice or “Paper Trade” until you develop a profitable trading approach. It may take years to develop both the “science” of trading which represents your trading skills, and the “art” of trading which represents your judgment and mindset. Most new traders fail here because they do not have the discipline to work on their trading approach until it is profitable. If you think about playing golf or tennis, you would not compete for money until you became a good player. And you do not become a good player until you have practiced for years. The same is true for trading! Think how foolish it would be for you to go play against champion golfers or tennis players if you where just a beginner. Yet, this is exactly what many new traders attempt to do. Every time you actively trade the financial markets, you are competing against other traders, some of which are champions. Therefore, you must acknowledge that all markets are championship arenas and you are competing against the best traders in any financial market you choose to trade. Think of how foolish it would be for a novice trader to enter a market and expect a positive outcome competing against traders that are champions. This is why new traders need to practice until their skills are developed enough to be able to successfully compete.

    Balance, Yet Focused

    Another important part of the trader’s mindset is to incorporate balance into your life and into your trading. While it is important to be a focused trader and also one that is focused in pursuit of proficiency, there is a line in which focus can become obsession. Do not cross this line! If you find you are becoming obsessed with your trading, then it is time to pull back and take some time off. Relax regularly to avoid becoming obsessed with trading. If you are not balanced, work on being balanced. Make yourself devote time to your relationships outside of trading. Go to the gym to improve your health. Do activities that you enjoy besides trading. And don’t forget to relax. A well balanced skilled trader will win more than an obsessed skilled trader nearly all the time because their bodies are more relaxed, less anxious, and less susceptible to negative emotions such as fear and greed which cause poor trading.

    Practice Trading As A Game, But Trade To Win

    When you are developing your trading skills and trading mindset have fun at it, and treat it like a game. Develop a stress free environment where practicing and learning are fun. This is where “Paper Trading” can help you. ȁPaper Trading” is a great way to practice your trading in a stress free environment where you can have fun while learning and improving. When you ready to trade with real money, trade to win! Be relaxed yet focused. Don’t get too serious or you will lose your edge and become uptight and stressed. Instead flow with the markets but make no mistake about it, you are there to win! The Navy Seals have a great saying, “It Pays To Be A Winner!”, and “Second Place Is First Loser!”, and this is true for trading as well.

    Bennett McDowell, President
    Free Video – Trading The Perfect Business!
    10755-F Scripps Poway Parkway, #477
    San Diego, CA. 92131

    Copyrighted © 2003 TradersCoach.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

    CONTRARIAN CORNER / by Jeff Weber, Columnist

    Back to top

    As a leading contrary investing expert, Jeff has written own investing book, I Guarantee You Will Buy Low Sell High and Make Money, which shows you when to buy and sell the stocks he recommends in his book. You can order the book by clicking on the title and it comes with a free one-year subscription to his newsletter, one month of coaching articles, and one year free email support.

    Jeff Weber of JJJ Investing Services
    Jeff Weber
    Jeff Weber
    Contrarian Columnist

    The Future Looks Good

    So you say where’s the sunshine for the stock market? Well, it’s coming. A look at the past stock markets strongly suggests that the flat growth in 2004 will be followed by a good Bull Market in 2005. Analysts do not expect the stock market to turn around in 2004. This gives you the rest of the year to start using my system by buying 10 really cheap excellent stocks and then wait for next year.

    This year will show one of smallest gains in the history of the S& P 500. But it’s certainly better than the big losses from 1999 to 2002. Isn’t it better to be in idle in a traffic jam than have your radiator go kaput? Because if your car is running, once the cars ahead of you start moving, you can to. Think of the stock market now as a traffic jam that is slowly moving and soon will speed up. Better than the cars going backward! And once traffic in the stock market starts driving at full speed, you’ll make up all the time you were waiting.

    The future good news will make up for the boring stock market news now happening. Actually to us “contrarians” the news is far less boring than it is for the herd. We benefit in both Bull & Bear markets because we can help ourselves make profits in both. For now we can plant the seeds that will grow into stock market profits by buying cheap stocks and wait for them to grow

    Here’s the good news history shows us. Since 1928, the S & P 500 has finished the year up less than 5% only six times. In five of the six years that happened, the following year the gains showed an average gain of 9.1%.

    Several reasons show why the market won’t be doing much the rest of the year and they really don’t have much to do with the companies performances related to the stocks. Traditionally the 4th quarter of the year is a weak time for the stock market. Looking back to 1928, the stock market has averaged a miniscule gain of 0.2%. And this year you have the Presidential Election dragging the quarter down too. As herd investors read the continually depressing news about the Iraq war, Afgan war, politics etc, they are not in Buy Mood. They are writing this year off – us contrarians are certainly NOT writing this year off – we are writing checks to buy cheap stocks and in the immortal words of baseball – wait till next year!!!

    The Stock Market is a little like the weather in Germany. An old saying there is if you don’t like the weather don’t worry, it changes every 15 minutes. Well the stock market is a lot like that. And just as people want to know what the weather will be like tomorrow, next week, next month, next year; investors want to know the same for the stock market. You can liken the weather to the stock market – think of rain like a Bear Market and sunshine like a Bull market. Sure, rain might spoil your picnic but it waters your lawn, causes crops to grow and is always followed by sunshine.

    AT&T - (NYSE: T, $14.80)
    52 week: High - $23.18 - Low $13.59

    Near 52-week low, P/E is 10 & now paying 6.4% dividend

    Am Pwr Conv - (Nasdaq: APCC, $14.55)
    52 week: High - $27.42 - Low $17.76

    Near 52-week low, P/E is 20 & pays 2.4% dividend

    Career Ed - (Nasdaq: CECO, $34.51)
    52 week: High - $70.91 - Low $26.89

    Near 52-week low, earnings forecasted to rise

    INSIDE TRACK: Weekly Insider Report / By Jeff Williams

    Back to top

    Jeff Williams is a partner with http://www.insiderreview.com For the past seven years Jeff has done extensive investment research as a member of an institutional investment team. His background consists of a degree in Finance from the University of South Florida with a minor in Economics. Jeff's everyday activities as an insider stock analyst consist of analyzing data available through a multiple of sources as it applies to all publicly traded companies. With this information he can then make short-term and long-term evaluations on a company’s present and future performance based on insider buying patterns. Each month Jeff will share with you his thoughts on stocks he believes to display the most interesting insider buying patterns.

    Jeff Williams
    Inside Track Columnist

    Interesting Buy Patterns

    Open market insider trading activity for MUSA August 2004

    Metals USA, Inc.

    Metals USA, Inc. is a provider of value-added processed steel, aluminum and specialty metals, as well as manufactured metal components. The Company's operations are organized into three product group segments, such as Flat Rolled and Plates and Shapes and Building Product Group, which manufactures and distributes aluminum products related to the residential and commercial construction and improvement industry. The Flat Rolled Group customers are in businesses such as machining, furniture, transportation equipment, power and process equipment, industrial/commercial, construction/fabrication, consumer durables and electrical equipment industries and machinery and equipment manufacturers. The Building Products Group customers are distributors and contractors engaged in residential and commercial building products.

    C. Lourenco Goncalves, 46, has been President and Chief Executive Officer and a director since February 2003. Mr. Goncalves served as President and Chief Executive Officer of California Steel Industries, Inc. from March 1998 to February 2003. From 1981 to 1998, he was employed by Companhia Siderurgica Nacional, where he held positions as a managing director, general superintendent of Volta Redonda Works, hot rolling general manager, cold rolling and coated products general manager, hot strip mill superintendent, continuous casting superintendent and quality control manager. Mr. Goncalves is a metallurgical engineer with a Masters degree from the Federal University of Minas Gerais State and a bachelor's degree from the Military Institute of Engineering in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

    We like the fact that Goncalves bought in March at the $12.50 level. That trade worked out well as the stock went as high as $18 before recently pulling back. Now Goncalves is back buying again.  Clearly, he sees a higher stock price on the way.

    From our Readers:

    Back to top

    Do you have comments, thoughts or opinions on Talking Points that you would like to share? Email them to letters@talking-points.com.

    FRESH PICKS: On the Prowl

    Back to top

    Weekly Stock Picks From Bob Coppo - New Feature!  

    Top Stock Picks for Tuesday, Sep 7th, 2004:
    We have no new buy signals for Tuesday.

    Bob Coppo is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

    The week past did nothing to motivate us toward loading up on our buy candidates. Instead, INTC's after-hours bombshell (surprisingly not met with more negativity by The Street) has led us to maintain our short recommendation on the QQQ's for the week ahead. We are looking forward to an end to the current downtrend in the Nasdaq, but it looks like the time is not yet upon us. Err on the side of caution.

    As always, do your own research before buying or selling any security. Our recommendations are for informational purposes only and are only our opinions. Make sure to read our Disclaimer

    List Maintenance:

    Back to top

    Online issues can be found at
    and click on the "Past Issues" menu item.


    Back to top

    1. We are not brokers, investment advisors, or securities dealers. Our newsletter is provided as our personal opinions and are for informational purposes only.

    2. Information on our website may contain "forward looking statements" as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

    3. Always research your own investments, and consult your investment advisor before investing.

    4. Visit the Securities Exchanges Commission website and read about how to avoid internet scams.

    5. Understand that we at Talking-Points.com may buy stock in the companies that we recommend in our newsletter, and may sell those shares after recommending them.

    6. Small-cap companies, micro-cap companies, penny stocks and/or thinly traded shares are highly risky and volatile investments. You risk losing some or all of the money you invest.

    7. We disclose any and all compensations received from companies profiled or mentioned on the site in accordance with the 1933 Securities Act Section 17 (b).

    Our Picks

    The stocks profiled on Talking-Points.com are only the opinions of Talking-Points.com and its representatives. These opinions are based on our research, which may be extensive or limited, done on each individual stock. Our sources include, but are not limited to, online research, company profiles, member suggestions, past performance, magazines, newspapers, analyst suggestions, broker recommendations, contact with the company, company rumors, and other similar information sources. All opinions are based on information that is accessible by the public.

    Risks Involved

    Investing in stocks involves risk. You should consult a qualified financial advisor or stock broker before making any decisions to invest. Stocks reviewed on this website or through email are for informational purposes only. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.

    Accuracy of Information is not Guaranteed

    Talking-Points.com works to verify the accuracy of all information contained on its website but does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Talking-Points.com does not represent itself to be, nor is it a registered investment advisor or stock broker. As advised before, you should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance of stocks profiled on this website is not a guarantee as to future performance. The performance of other members choosing to invest in any stocks profiled on this site may or may not be an indication as to your performance.

    Our Positions in the Stocks Mentioned

    Talking-Points.com and its representatives reserve the right to buy and sell any stock mentioned on this web site. Talking-Points.com reserves the right to buy or sell any of these profiled stocks before, during and immediately after they are posted to the site. Talking-Points.com is not responsible for any gains or losses incurred do to investing in these opinions.

    Our Relationship to You as a Subscriber

    Obtaining a subscription to the emailed newsletter does not in any way create any principle-agent relationship between Talking-Points.com and the recipient. Receipt of the recommended stocks, either via email, or directly from our website, is not in any way a recommendation to buy or sell but is just the opinion of StockTalkReport.com and its representatives and should be used for informational purposes only.

    Compensation Received if Any

    As in compliance with the 1933 Securities Act Sect. 17 (b) any and all compensation received from a company is publicly stated.

    Forward Looking Statements

    Information presented on the Talking-Points.com web site and supplied through the newsletter may contain "forward looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, goals, assumptions or future events or performance are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward looking statements." Forward looking statements are based on expectations, estimates and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. Forward looking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as "projects", "foresee", "expects'", "will," "anticipates," "estimates," "believes," "understands" or that by statements indicating certain actions "may," "could," or "might" occur.

    General Risks, Research and Types of Orders

    Short-term trading can be extremely risky. It is highly recommended that when ever making a decision to buy or sell you use limit orders. As with any investment decision, careful research should be done before making any decision to invest. As with any decision to invest it is usually recommended that you use limit orders, especially in fast moving, volatile stocks. You should only invest money that you are willing to lose. We also encourage you to read up on the SEC policies regarding online newsletters. Also before investing online please visit the Securities Exchanges Commission website and read about how to avoid internet scams.

    Copyright © 2002-2003, StockTalkReport.com and Talking-Points.com