April 11, 2004


Issue #112

Greg Fry
   Greg Fry

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WEEK ON WALL STREET: Week In Review  /   by Bob Coppo

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Our new Week on Wall Street columnist is Bob Coppo. Bob is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

Bob Coppo
Week on Wall Street
The Week on Wall Street

Thursday's Action:   Strong results from Yahoo and an upbeat outlook from Dell helped keep the Nasdaq in the black, but disappointment over Wal-Mart's profit prospects added to the Dow's decline. Major world markets reported mostly higher results on Thursday. London's FTSE closed up 0.47%; Frankfurt's DAX closed up 0.31%, and Paris' CAC 40 closed up 0.15%. Japan's Nikkei closed up 0.61%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.08%, and Sydney's All Ordinaries Index closed down 0.18%. In economic news, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 3 fell 14,000 to 328,000. Wholesale Inventories in February were up 1.2%. Volume came in at 1.19 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.71 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was negative, with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by 1.70, and down volume over up volume by 1.42; Nasdaq declining issues over advancing issues by 1.15, and up volume over down volume by 1.08. Leading sectors were Internets, +4.71%, Energy, +0.97%, Semiconductors, +0.89% and Oil Services, +0.88%. Laggards were Retailers, -1.46%, Gold Bugs, -1.20% and Gold/Silver, -1.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 0.50 pts lower to settle at 1489.50, while the S&P's settled down 2.70 pts at 1139.60.

Weekly Recap:   Stocks slipped slightly last week, as geopolitical events were in the spotlight again with an escalation of fighting in Iraq. Normally, that would benefit the Treasury market, but with concerns about a potential Fed rate hike, the bond market continued to decline. The benchmark 10-yr note rose 6 basis points to 4.2%.

Gold was down slightly for the week to $420.70/oz with the dollar's strength against the yen and the euro acting as a deterrent for safe-haven seekers. A spike in crude oil futures, which followed a bearish inventory report, also acted weighed on the stock and bond markets, re-igniting concerns about inflation and rising energy prices. For the week, crude oil futures gained 8% to $37.14/bbl. The key economic reports last week were mostly bullish however, with the ISM Services Index and initial jobless claims report coming in better than expected. The former checked in at 65.8 (consensus 61.5), indicating expansion on the services side of the economy, while the 328K claims (consensus 340K) for unemployment benefits marked the lowest level since January of 2001.

The earnings reporting period for Q1 officially began after Tuesday's close when Alcoa posted its results. The Dow component came in a penny short of consensus estimates. Both Alcoa, and Nokia, which issued an earnings warning, were the disappointments for the week. Yahoo, however, delivered a solid report and gained 16.3% to close the week. Overall, earnings news was generally good. General Electric, Genentech and Research In Motion all beat their respective consensus estimates, while Dell, Black & Decker, Cummins and Cigna all raised their revenue and/or earnings guidance. A number of retailers did the same after reporting March same-store sales results on Thursday. Many of those stocks failed to benefit as traders sold on the news and left flat for the long weekend.

For the week, the Dow lost -0.3%, the S&P 500 finished -0.2% lower and the Nasdaq slipped -0.2%. The small cap Russell 2000 fell -.9%. Next week is fairly heavy on the economic front, with Business inventories and Retail Sales on Tuesday, the Trade Balance and CPI on Wednesday, Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Index and the Philly Fed Survey on Thursday and Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

Inflation and the Yield Spread:   The main reason we've seen a recent jump in long term interest rates (see 10-Yr T-note Yield chart above) is bond traders "expectations" that the Fed will be forced to raise the Fed Funds rate sooner rather than later. A rising yield spread, as measured by the ratio of the 30-yr T-bond to the 13-wk T-Bill, reflects this heightened concern by the bond market. The 13-wk yield is effectively set by the Fed, as it tracks closely with the Fed Funds rate. By using the 13-wk yield as the denominator in the yield spread equation, it becomes relatively easy to spot when the Fed's monetary policy is "too easy" or "too tight". Currently, the Fed is insisting that it is going to remain "patient", meaning that it plans to hold the Fed Funds Rate near the current low level until the economy starts creating substantially more jobs. But at the same time, longer term bond yields are getting close to an upside breakout. When bond yields do eventually breakout to the upside, the yield spread will be pushed higher and the Fed will be forced to hike rates whether the jobs picture is improving or not.

When the yield spread is rising, it is often a sign that inflation expectations are also rising. That's bearish for the US Dollar and, therefore, bullish for the gold price. The Fed plays an important role because it controls short-term interest rates and consequently has a big influence on the yield spread.Ê

A Conservative Approach to Long Term Investing:   Our investment philosophy has always been to diversify our capital between high risk and more conservative vehicles. We believe conservative investing should be viewed with an eye towards retirement. The ideal investment vehicle would preserve capital while still generating acceptable long term growth. America First Investor has developed just such an investment model. Based on a Nobel prize winning theory of asset allocation and sector rotation, the model has produced solid results over the last two years. In 2002, the AFI model produced gains of 82.3% while the bench mark S&P 500 Index lost 23.4%. In 2003, the model outperformed the S&P again, gaining 43.9% to 26.4%. But just as important, the maximum monthly draw-down was only 5.1%, while the average draw down was less than 3.0%. Compare that to an average monthly gain of 4.0% and an impressive 88.9% win to loss ratio and you get an idea of just how solid this model is.

Since its inception on January 2, 2002 to April 7, 2004, the America First Investor Portfolio gained a solid +181.1%. During this same time period, a buy-and-hold strategy with the S&P 500 Index lost -1.2%. On a quarterly basis, the AFI model produced steady equity growth, even during the bear market of 2002.

America First is offering first time subscribers a FREE 30-day Trial. To learn more, click HERE.

The COT Report:   The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers bought some 2,600 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -10,042 contracts. Large Traders remained net short -40,046 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +50,088 contracts held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold some 1,000 contracts to bring their net long position to +20,096 contracts. Small Traders were net short -12,750 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money sell some 500 contracts to bring their net long position to just +993 contracts.

Commercial Hedgers were better buyers in the S&P's last week, but still remain net short. For the intermediate term, their position should be considered a bearish sign.

Sentiment Surveys:   The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed that the percentage of bullish newsletter writers came in at 48.5%, while the percentage of bears registered 22.8%. The bullish ratio (bulls/bulls +bears) came in at 68%.

The latest AAII survey showed an increase to 59% bulls, and a decrease to 20% bears. The bullish ratio came in at 75%, while the 4-week moving average remains high at 62%. One thing to note about the AAII survey is that, while membership in this organization is quite large as investor groups go, the number of members that actually participate in the survey is very small. Thus, large fluctuations in survey results from week to week are not uncommon.

The latest Market Vane survey came in at 69%, indicating that the majority of commodity trading advisors (CTA's) remain bullish on the future direction of the S&P's.

The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days:   We said in Wednesday night's column that the odds favored making higher highs on Thursday, and that happened. Thursday's price action favors making lower lows on Monday, and that fits with the Easter holiday seasonal bias expectation of a lower close the Monday after Easter. The stock market closed mixed on Thursday after opening higher, which is consistent with a market that is in a short-term overbought condition. On Wednesday night, we showed the Nasdaq Composite Index as being overbought. The Dow looks very similar. The INDU is backing off from its upper bollinger band with its stochastics rolling over from above 80%, an area that normally leads to short-term profit-taking. The daily MACD lines remain positive, but the RSI and CCI indicators are turning down. Volume was light due to the holiday-shortened week. With more bad news coming from Iraq, short-term traders were reluctant to carry long positions over the long weekend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is low, suggesting that the market may be entering a trading range between the highs and lows of the first quarter. While the Dow closed lower on Thursday, the Nasdaq managed a modest gain. That discrepancy can largely be explained by the action of two stocks, Yahoo and Wal-Mart. The former surged while the latter sank.

SMT's Pivot Point Forecast; 1-2 Weeks:   Our Pivot Point forecast is currently on a sell signal. Our next Pivot Point is forecast to occur on or near April 12th.

The 60-mn NDX chart below shows that the StochRSI indicator is in the BUY zone. For Monday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 1148 and then 1162. Support lies at 1126 and then 1119. For the Naz, resistance comes in at 1502 and then 1516.50. Support lies at 1477 and then 1466.

The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks:   Wal-Mart Stores is the worldÕs largest company based on sales and has led the S&P 500 Index at important turning points over the past year or so. Although same store sales were up last week, several retailers sold off and WMT was the biggest loser. The chart below shows WMT falling to a seven-week low on Thursday on rising volume and testing its 200-day moving average. The relative strength line is also dropping. If past relationships prevail, WMT could well be setting up to lead the market lower.

Our Market Trend Indicator (MTI) is currently positive and trended slightly higher on Thursday.

Good Trading!

Housekeeping:   Our telephone number has changed. The new number is 303-470-0411

Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:

LAST WEEK'S PICKS: Moving Sideways

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Last week's Fresh Picks made their way through a holiday-shortened week in ho-hum fashion, finishing with an average gain of 0%.

Both picks crawled along through the four sessions, with QLGC finishing the week just $0.08 above our recommended entry point, while TSIC finished exactly where it began the week at $1.08.

Make sure to also have a look at the Track Record page on the site for our 2003 monthly breakdown showing each and every Fresh Pick from the year, along with its price when recommended and where it ended the year. For specific targets and stops, please see the archives.

Have you traded any of our recommended plays along the way? We'd love to hear from you and how you did. Please send your stories to comments@talkingpoints.com.

TECH WATCH: Satellite Radio Growth / by Jeff Neal, Technical Market Columnist

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Jeff Neal is a veteran options strategist and trader with over a decade of experience in the trading business. Jeff has had a diversified business career operating a very successful management consulting business with his clients representing some of the largest companies in the world.

He has a B.S. in Computer Science from Indiana University and an MBA in Finance from the University of Indianapolis. Jeff is a writer, mentor, and options strategist for Optionetics (http://www.optionetics.com/) and as head of his own hedge fund is an active options trader in both the equity and futures markets.

Jeff Neal - Staff Writer & Options Strategist - Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

Jeff Neal
Tech Watch

Satellite Radio Growth

By Jeff Neal

Recent technological developments have spawned two very interesting players in the satellite communications and entertainment sector. Both seem to have funding and market traction, which could potentially translate into major growth in the satellite radio space. The two firms are Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) and are both traded on the NASDAQ.

Both companies are primarily targeting the lucrative market of car and truck drivers, which is estimated to exceed 200 million units. They have also started to focus on high-end quality radio use in the home, which is forecasted to explode much like satellite and cable television usage. The digital sound is said to be near CD quality.

Sirius as well as XM Satellite come in with an impressive array of informational and entertainment programming choices. For example, Sirius offers 60 streams of 100% commercial-free music, which is all produced in-house by what the company calls “stream jockeys” who really know the music they play.

Sirius is headquartered in New York City and offers exclusive performances and interviews with top artists virtually every day. In addition to the music programming they offer 8 sports channels and possess an exclusive agreement with the NBA and NHL to broadcast 40 games each week for each respective sports league. This sports offering is part of the 40 sports, news, and entertainment stream package the company markets.

The Sirius service is delivered via 3 geosynchronous satellites, which beams the 100 streams of radio programming to their subscription base. Sirius has a distinctive list of strategic partners among automotive dealers including names like Chrysler, Ford, BMW, Mercedes Benz and Jaguar. Sirius is an optional stock and currently has a market cap of approximately 2.2 billion.

XM Satellite Radio also has a very robust digital programming package that includes 101 digital channels across the nation. They offer music, sports, news, and entertainment. Even though they do not have an exclusive deal with any of the major sports leagues they do offer 5 sports channels with top content providers including such names as NASCAR and CNN/Sports Illustrated.

The company is headquartered in Washington, DC and is a wholly owned subsidiary of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Incorporated. Their broadcast studio is the largest digital radio facility of its kind in the country. XM Satellite utilizes 2 geostationary satellites to deliver their programming. Just like Sirius, XM Satellite also has quite a stable of automotive dealers offering their service. Key dealerships include GMC, Honda, Cadillac, Buick, Nissan, Saturn and Toyota.

XM Satellite is also an optional stock with an approximate market cap of 3.22 billion. Recently, the company posted a 52-week high at 24.95.

There are some fundamental reasons why both of these stocks have the potential to do very well going forward. First, considering the capital intensive nature of the business coupled with stiff regulations makes future competitors have to scale a steep barrier to market entry. Also, for just about everybody concerned including consumers, partners, alliances and even the Federal government it is in their best interests that there are two firms operating in this space versus just one survivor. So barring any major management scandals both firms should find enough support to not only survive but a chance to thrive in the foreseeable future.

Currently XM Satellite has a lead in market share and it has manifested itself in the stock’s appreciable year-to-date gain. However, both companies appear poised to take advantage of the potentially explosive market of digital satellite radio programming. These companies continue to get more and more news headlines, which has dramatically improved the volume not only in the stock but the options as well. These two hi-tech issues are worth adding to the list as possible momentum plays using the optimum option strategy for the existing conditions.

Happy Trading.

Jeff Neal
Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

MARKET TA: Riding the Waves / by Dale Woodson, Technical Market Columnist

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Dale Woodson is the editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

We encourage our subscribers to visit his site at http://www.woodsonwave.com and please see Dale's complete bio following his column.

Dale Woodson

Dale Woodson
Market TA columnist

TIMER DIGEST’S (P.O. BOX 1688, Greenwich, CT. 06836/ 203-629-3503)

















Year 2012



1932 or 1942


Year 2012*



12/6/74 or 8/12/82


Year 2012





.618 = 5803





Complete @ 8062 on 9/21/01





Complete @ 10,673 on 3/19/02





Complete @ 7197 on 10/10/02





Topping, high 10,753 on 2/19/04





 .500 = 6865/ .618 = 5803





Year 2012

* "…it should terminate about the year 2012"

* "...not expected to terminate until about 2012"

R. N. Elliott, Educational Bulletin O

R.N. Elliott, Interpretive Letter No. 17

October 26, 1942.



August 25, 1941.

Primary degree wave 2 down (1987 - 1990) running flat correction.

Primary degree wave 3 up (1990 - 1999)



Primary degree wave 4 down (8/24/99 -?)




From the 3/20 report:

“…wave (E) down had just begun…the first wave down in that decline is still unfolding… A Fibonacci 34 days from the top gives us a target date of 3/24/04 while a Fibonacci 55 days marks 4/14/04 for a possible target.”

The Fibonacci gods have smiled upon us once again as the Dow appears to have completed the first wave down of this major decline at the 3/24/04 low just above the 10,000 mark. A Fibonacci .382 retracement of this decline gives us a target price of 10,300 for this upward correction, while -.618-retracement points toward 10,408. Keep in mind this is a bear market and surprises should be to the downside.


It has been exactly one full year since the war in Iraq began. How many times have you heard phrases like “the market fell on fears of war” or “the main direction of the market is up and it will continue to rise unless some shock like war occurs”? Once again, the experts were wrong. We all know the only things that actually move the market are human emotions like hope greed and fear. An actual war more often times marks a low point, despite the popular belief that it can actually signal the start a decline. As the chart above so perfectly illustrates, if anything, war moves the market up, not down. We talked about this factor a year ago, as it became obvious that war in Iraq was imminent. From the March 7, 2003 report from Woodson Wave.

“The direction of the stock market is not a result of war. In fact, the cause and effect is just the opposite. War is a product of the stock market. Just as peace reigns at the top of bull markets, wars tend to occur at the bottom of bear markets, usually near the bottoms of c waves…”

It is safe to say that the war in Iraq started much closer to a bottom than to a top. It is also safe to say from the chart above that the direction of the stock market was definitely up, not down after the war began. And lastly, as the chart below illustrates, wars do tend to occur near the bottom of c waves. Instead of looking toward events and outside noise for market turns, at Woodson Wave we focus on a more reliable source – the Fibonacci sequence. And, once again, as the spiral called for a top, the market has accommodated.

Sure, we all know that the market moved up from the beginning of the war exactly one year ago. We also know that the always-reliable Fibonacci weekly spiral called the top of wave (D) to within nine days. Since that top, we have seen some intense selling pressure in the markets. This of course, is the last wave down in the now five-year old bear market. The good news is that it could end this year. The bad news is the worst is yet to come. And if you think about, the good news is actually bad news because if the bear market does end this year (as we expect) that means the decline will most surely be a devastating one.

Wave (E) down is the worst. It’s the wave that will bring everyone to his or her knees. At the bottom, it should definitely fall below the low of wave (C) at 7197. Our long-standing Fibonacci target for this decline is 5803. And if we connect the lows of wave (A) and (C) and allow for a “thrust” below that trend line, which is common in triangles, then the target is even lower still.

But for now let’s focus on the near term. In the near term, wave (E) down has just begun. It should shape up to be a five-wave decline. The first wave down in that decline is still unfolding. It is difficult to label the first through third waves of this decline, as there are several possibilities. However, the most recent price action has taken on the definite shape of a triangle. And triangles always appear as fourth waves. We can expect one more decline in wave five to develop in the next few days to complete the initial decline in wave (E). A fibonacci 34 days from the top gives us a target date of 3/24/04 while a fibonacci 55 days marks 4/14/04 for a possible target. 


We have viewed the rise from the lows of last August as a corrective wave. The most recent top occurred last June. Our stance from the February 7, 2004 report:

“Recall that in the big picture, bonds moved lower in a steep decline from last June to the August lows… while wave two up can certainly move higher and maintain the wave count…”

Move higher is certainly what the market has done. In fact this move higher is about to challenge the entire wave count. Remember second waves can retrace up to 100% of the preceding first wave. The move up in the bond market frankly surprised us and we moved to a neutral stance, expecting this rise to terminate soon. So far, it has yet to do so. At this point, the retracement has moved well past the .382 and .618 fibonacci levels. Not far away is the high of last June. Once that high is eclipsed, we will need to rethink the count.

The chart below illustrates the sharp decline from the highs of last June. The move up from the lows of last August hardly resembles a motive wave, as overlaps are aplenty. However, it would take a move above the highs of last June to eliminate our count. We maintain a neutral position as we wait for the wave pattern to unfold.


We have maintained a short position in the gold market against the early January high. We count the current decline as a fourth wave. This decline, as it is a fourth wave, should not violate the price territory of the first wave. In other words, this decline should hold above the $380 level. A Fibonacci .382 retracement gives us a target of $398.57 for the decline while a Fibonacci .618 pullback points toward $377.73 in the April contract. To date, the low for this move is $388.20, right between our two targets. This brings us to another common Fibonacci target level that we would like to mention – the .500 retracement. A fifty per cent retracement gives us a target price of $388.15, within a mere five cents of the actual low. Combine this with the fact that the three-wave pattern appears complete at that low, and we can label the fourth wave as complete. The first indication that our wave count is correct will be a move above the third wave high of $432.30. Woodson Wave moves to a long position in the gold market.

Positions for rating services:

The “positions for rating services” below are assumed positions taken for rating services such as Timer Digest to rate our newsletter and rank us against other market timing newsletters. While the Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci ratios have implications regarding the overall direction and turning points in the markets, a reader is not justified

in inferring that any trading advice is given. Woodson Wave Report, LLC does not offer specific trading recommendations.

Long-term counts are found on weekly and/or monthly charts and generally cover a time period of years to decades.

Intermediate-term counts are found on daily and/or weekly charts and generally cover a time period of weeks to years.

Short-term counts are found on daily and/or hourly charts and generally cover a time period of days to hours.


Long term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows.
Intermediate term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Short term: Remain short.


Long term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Intermediate term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Short term: Remain short.

S&P 500:

Long term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows.
Intermediate term: Remain short expecting wave (E) down to new lows
Short term: Remain short.

Bonds: Remain neutral.

Gold: Move to a long position.

Dale Woodson is editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

Timer Digest rates Woodson Wave Report as the #5 stock market timer and #5 bond market timer for the three-year period from 12/31/98 through 12/31/2001. Woodson broke into the top ten rated stock market timers by placing #7 in the year 2000. He followed that up with a #4 rating for the year in 2001. These ratings were achieved during a period when market timing was extremely difficult as the bull market was turning over to bear and most were caught off guard.

While there is no feeling like catching a turn on the dime, Dale especially enjoys writing the newsletter. He is most proud of the numerous correspondences complimenting him on his writing abilities. He has a real passion for his work. He knows that the market will move in certain Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci sequences. His challenge is to identify those patterns and sequences in advance, while there is still time to profit from them.

Woodson Wave Report offers monthly, quarterly and yearly subscriptions. Newsletters are delivered via email and URL links and are published on the first Friday of every month. Special interim reports are released as market conditions warrant and targets are achieved. All new annual subscribers receive two months free.

You can subscribe to Woodson Wave Report via the secure online order form link below: http://www.woodsonwave.com/orderform.html

Disclaimer: The Woodson Wave Report combines Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci ratios to identify turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 cash, bond and gold markets with respect to both price and time. The monthly newsletter is generally released on the first Friday of the month and special interim reports are issued as market conditions warrant and as targets are achieved. The information contained in the report is prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be taken as an offer to buy or sell any investment vehicle. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Woodson Wave Report is waived of any liabilities.

GOLD RUSH: Golden Uncertainty Continues/ by John Dowdee, Ph.D., Gold Editor

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Golden Uncertainty Continues

Last week gold did virtually nothing to clear the air. The prospects for the yellow metal are as uncertain as ever.

Gold opened the week at $423, fell to a low of $414.50, recovered to a high of $425, and then settled backward to close the holiday shortened week at $420.00. Although the U.S. markets were closed on Friday, gold traded overseas and was showing strength into the weekend as a result of the deteriorating war situation in Iraq. We will see if bullion can follow through next week and finally break out above $433. On the positive side, bullion is above the 50 day moving average and both the 50 day and 200 day averages are increasing. However, the potential double top around $431 and $433 is worrisome. Until the gold prices rises above this resistance, we will remain neutral. If gold falls below the psychologically important $400 level, this would be bad news for the bulls and could signal a long hard summer of lower prices.

Gold stocks, as measured by the XAU index, exhibited similar patterns and provided no clear guidance. The XAU traded in a very narrow range, opening at 103.40 and closing at 101.62. Like the metal, stocks have also left a double top. To resume the bull market with confidence, the XAU must close above resistance at 114. A drop below 100 would not bode well.

Last week I stated that I had begun to accumulate stocks and discussed that Barrick (ABX) was one of my favorite “blue chip” miners. ABX traded in a narrow range with a high of $23.93 and a low of $23.30. ABX closed the week in the middle of the range at 23.49. Support for Barrick is at $22.80 and resistance is around $24.

The other stock we mentioned was Glamis (GLG). This was touted as a momentum play but GLG slumped last week to close at the first support around $18.20. Lower support is at $17.20. Although momentum is waning, the stock is still well above the 50 day moving average and both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages are increasing. If support holds, then GLG will continue to be attractive.

The summary this week is the same as last week. I am continuing to climb the “wall of worry” and I still recommend accumulating gold stocks. But caution is the watchword. I am keeping my finger on the trigger and will not hesitate to sell if support is breached.

Remember that gold stocks are volatile and are not for everyone. You should never depend on anyone else’s opinion. You should do your own due diligence and evaluate your risk tolerance before making decisions to buy (or sell) any stocks or funds. Best of luck!

MR. SWING'S PLACE: Weekly Swing Trading Ideas / by Larry Swing

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Each week, Mr. Swing analyzes his database of more than 9,200 securities to scan for swing trading opportunities. But be warned: Do not expect a fast way to make money. Mr. Swing is going to show you how you can accumulate small gains weekly, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach. While he realizes that this short-term swingtrading approach is not for everyone, he hopes that the information given at MrSWING.com will be useful to you in the near future...

These are your Swing Trading Opportunities for this week:

Talking Points member - Over the nearly two years that we have carried the Mr. Swing's Place column, Larry's picks have consistently put in great performances. Don't miss out on the full swing-trading content available at Mr. Swing.com. Take advantage of some of the great programs available by clicking here.

Long Swings:

^ click here


Short Swings:


^ click here
^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5
^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5
^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1 and HIGH1< HIGH2

^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH> HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2

^ click here

^ click here

^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >= 0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE > SMAC50
^ click here
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1) >= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC50
^ click here
^ click here
^ click here
^ click here
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MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW )
^ click here
MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW)
^ click here
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REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
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REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

INTC (Short) - Chart of the Week
Larry Swing


Our COTW today covers a trade based purely on technical analysis; a short-trade on INTC.  The stock appears likely to continue its decline for four important reasons:

  • The stock has formed a good-looking bear flag; the stock declined on heavy volume, and then made the classic “abcde” bottom.  That is, a low, a small advance to a high, a small decline to a low, another small advance, then a decline through the line drawn from one low to the next.

    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index


    1. Volume has negatively followed the stock’s movements; it has risen during declines, and fallen during advances.  This suggests that the information content is higher during the declines than the advances.  In other words, the “smart” money is probably selling.
    2. The stock has shown extremely poor relative strength, and has diverged negatively from the NASDAQ.  Furthermore, since the stock’s volatility has remained high, and the stock did not participate well in the recent rally, it appears likely that this divergence is sustainable.

    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index


    1. The NASDAQ withdrew to important gap support Wednesday.  Should the support level fail, a broad decline is likely.

    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index


    Key Levels:

    Stop short:  27.24, a little below Wednesday’s low.  A decline to this level should be accompanied by a support break on the NASDAQ.


    Stop loss:  28.76, a little above point “d” on the bear flag (the most recent downside inversion point).


    Target:  26.16.  This is just above the stock’s recent lows.  We will take profits early because of the recently high directionless market volatility, and because this level is significant support.  Aggressive traders may reopen the short if 25.24 fails (this is the pivot point of an old bull flag that led to a major rally that has not yet been completely retraced).


    Mr.Swing DISCLAIMER: Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MRSWING.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the strategies described above. © Copyright 2002, MrSwing.com. All rights reserved. COPYING AND OR ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF THIS DOCUMENT WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONSENT OF MRSWING.COM IS A VIOLATION OF THE COPYRIGHT LAW.

    THE TRADER'S MINDSET: If You Can't Pull the Trigger, Fear is Stopping You / by Bennett McDowell, Columnist

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    Founder and President of TradersCoach.com, Bennett started his financial career on Wall Street with the firm J.J. Kenny Co. in 1984 after serving as an officer in the U.S. Navy. Bennett also served as a Retirement Plan Specialist with the Equitable in New York and has investment real estate experience as well. In addition, his 1979 Economics BA degree from Syracuse University in upstate New York gave him a foundation on which he was able to build a solid background in Finance.

    Bennett has extensive experience in trading the financial markets and is currently an active trader including day trading the financial futures markets. He also coaches many traders through his company TradersCoach.com.

    Considered an expert in technical analysis and complex computer trading platforms and applications, Bennett has educated and helped traders worldwide improve their trading. Bennett is well known for helping traders overcome sabotaging psychological issues that keep them from reaching their full potential. In addition to his educational and coaching abilities, Bennett, a registered securities broker, manages money and trades for clients throughout the United States.

    Bennett released his home study course Applied Reality Trading, also known as "ART" in January 2002. His cutting-edge course teaches traders his state of the art Pyramid Trading Points, Money management, and developing the "Trader's Mindset." Bennett is also known for developing The Trader's Assistant - a premier trade-posting record-keeping system for traders, as well as writing and publishing The Survival Guide For Traders, a book on how to set up and organize your trading business.

    Bennett provides private consultation/coaching services to many traders throughout the world by telephone, video conferencing, and in person. Working with Bennett, traders spend time focusing on trading system development, trading psychology, and disciplined money management.


    The Trader's Mindset Columnist
    If You Can't Pull The Trigger, Fear Is Stopping You!
    By Bennett McDowell, President, TradersCoach.com

    Fear can be good thing if it is based in reality. When fear is based on fantasy or on past events that do not correctly represent reality, then fear is destructive. I think the first question to ask yourself should be: Is your fear based on reality or fantasy? If the answer is a lack of confidence then that maybe your fear is based on reality because your body is telling you to be better prepared. If this is the case, then you need to "Paper Trade" until you build your confidence enough that those feelings of fear dissipate.

    If the answer is that your fear is based on fantasy then you need to rid yourself of this fear before trading. Examples of this are seeing yourself failing before you even begin. Or visions of losing everything based on other trader's experiences, etc. Basically the best way to eliminate this type of fear is to make trading fun again and not filled with worry and anxiety. This is where trading with risk control using the proper trade size should allow you to trade without worry. Say to yourself, if I am stopped out, I am within my risk tolerance, so why should I worry?

    Also, don't focus on individual trade results. Instead, focus on how you did over a period of 35 trades and how these results compare to the testing that you have previously done. If your state of mind hinges on the outcome of a single trade then you will be nervous wreak while trading and fear manifests more fear and then you will be trading from a fearful mindset and you will never win because you will be emotionally trading. If you feel that ever happening to you, stop trading and take some time off to re-charge yourself and only trade again when you mindset is one of abundance and trading is fun.

    You need to make trading fun, so remove enough risk until it is. Try not to focus on the money, instead try to focus on what the market is saying and stay in the here and now. Every time you think about anything other then what is happening right now, you are fantasying and are not living in the present moment. Successful trading REQUIRES you to live in the present moment!

    Make trading fun by removing the complexity of it and simplifying you're trading and your self. When you trade you want to be relaxed and just flow with the markets like a leaf flows with a stream of water. Go where the markets want you to go, and when the water gets too rough, get out and go to another stream.

    Bennett McDowell, President
    Free Video – Trading The Perfect Business!
    10755-F Scripps Poway Parkway, #477
    San Diego, CA. 92131

    Copyrighted © 2003 TradersCoach.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

    CONTRARIAN CORNER / by Jeff Weber, Columnist

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    As a leading contrary investing expert, Jeff has written own investing book, I Guarantee You Will Buy Low Sell High and Make Money, which shows you when to buy and sell the stocks he recommends in his book. You can order the book by clicking on the title and it comes with a free one-year subscription to his newsletter, one month of coaching articles, and one year free email support.

    Jeff Weber of JJJ Investing Services
    Jeff Weber
    Jeff Weber
    Contrarian Columnist

    Are you falling victim to shortsideness? After a good run-up last year, stock prices have cooled a little in the past several months. So what does that mean for the AIM investor? That means we have more stocks to choose from to start our portfolio. It means if we own stocks already, AIM will soon be telling us to buy more of the cheaply-priced stocks. So we really don't worry what our stocks are doing now, we wait for the future to raise up the prices of our stocks now selling cheaply.

    Of course like all people, we want to know the future now or at least have some idea what the future of our stocks will be. There are indexes that can give us a pretty good of what the future holds. Stocks had a really frenzied run-up since last March when they hit bottom. The S&P 500 is up 44%, the Dow Jones Average is up 42% and NASDAQ index has done even better - it's up 64%! You'll feel good to know that experts feel the stock market is doing exactly the right now by pulling back. Gives people time for smart buys now before the next run-up - maybe non-contrary investors learned a bit of a lesson from the late,long Bear market.

    The experts feel valuations aren't really wrong except in a few areas. The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 20 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months which is higher than the historical 15 times average. But it means the price-earnings ratios are back to where they were 5 years ago before the bubble burst. Also realize that interest rates are at 45-year lows, there's low inflation, and very low bond yields and experts feel higher valuations are justified. Stocks are still the preferred asset in the investing market.

    Some even forecast that price-earnings ratios could go to 25 before the stock market is fully valued. Of course some areas are overheated; the NASDAQ top 100 companies are currently trading at 35 times expected earnings but again there's an explanation as tech stocks are red-hot with investors and institutions and holdings in tech stocks increased 44% - hey their earnings will go up by outsourcing jobs to India and other third-world countries!

    Small-cap stocks are also showing signs of over heatings. Many with little or no earnings have been top performers over the last year. But my AIMers won't have to worry - they wouldn't be buying small-caps at their 52-week high - they bought them last year at their lows. Even the big picture Russell 2000, a small company index, is trading at 30 times expected earnings. But realize the economy is still improving and interest rates are likely to stay low. So analysts feel any market correction would lead to a rebound - so Buy Low Sell High still looks like the financial forecast.

    But as I always teach my AIM investors, you must be patient bumping along the stock market road until the pavement gets smooth again. My investors know that - they don't believe every stock will have its "15 minutes of fame" so they don't react to daily bounces. They are patient and do what AIM tells them to do and then they know they are always making the right decision for the long term. Estimates by the experts forecasts a 15% drop by the summer. But companies are doing better than last year when prices did skyrocket - profits this year for S&P 500 companies estimated to rise 12% over last year.

    Bank, insurance companies and financial companies lead the increase and are paying out 34% more than last year. Citgroup's dividend is up 94% from last year and 58 companies really made their investors happy with special cash dividends. But remember dividends aren't everything. A comparison shows that dividend-paying stocks were up 23% but non-dividend payers were up 54%. Investors would rather have the company invest that money into the future than pay it to them now.

    Young tech companies feel their investors are more interested in growth and the stock appreciation that comes with growth than in dividends. But even Microsoft has started paying a small dividend. I have always favored recommending stocks with little or no dividends (except for closed-end income funds for IRAs) because investors do make more money in the long-term on stock appreciation rather than dividends. So my AIM investors, again we are set for whatever the market brings temporarily because we know we are always doing the right thing for the long-term.

    Here are three stocks very low-priced stocks I like this month:

    aai Pharma - (Nasdaq: AAIIE, $7.57)
    52 week: High - $31.85 - Low $5.95

    AAII d trouble already factored into price, risky but great potential.

    Dynegy A - (NYSE: DYN, $3.98)
    52 week: High - $5.43 - Low $2.10

    DYN good cheap energy play - will recover from problems

    McData A - (Nasdaq: MCDTA, $6.92)
    52 week: High - $15.90 - Low $6.60

    MCDTA at their 52-week low, another good one for the risk-taker.

    INSIDE TRACK: Weekly Insider Report / By Jeff Williams

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    Jeff Williams is a partner with http://www.insiderreview.com For the past seven years Jeff has done extensive investment research as a member of an institutional investment team. His background consists of a degree in Finance from the University of South Florida with a minor in Economics. Jeff's everyday activities as an insider stock analyst consist of analyzing data available through a multiple of sources as it applies to all publicly traded companies. With this information he can then make short-term and long-term evaluations on a company’s present and future performance based on insider buying patterns. Each month Jeff will share with you his thoughts on stocks he believes to display the most interesting insider buying patterns.

    Jeff Williams
    Inside Track Columnist

    Interesting Buy Patterns

    Open market insider trading activity for FCFC 11/19/03 through 03/30/04

    FirstCity Financial Corporation

    FirstCity Financial Corporation is a financial services company with offices throughout the United States and Mexico and a presence in France. The Company began operating as a specialty financial services company focused on acquiring and resolving distressed loans and other assets purchased at a discount relative to the aggregate unpaid principal balance of the loans or the appraised value of the other assets (Face Value). The Company has acquired, for its own account and through various affiliated partnerships, pools of assets or single assets (collectively, Portfolio Assets) with a Face Value of approximately $7.1 billion. The Company is engaged in two principal businesses, Portfolio Asset acquisition and resolution, and consumer lending through its minority investment in Drive Financial Services LP.

    Robert E. Garrison II has been a Director of FirstCity since May 1999. Mr. Garrison is the President, Chief Executive Officer and director of Sanders Morris Harris Group. Previously, Mr. Garrison served as Executive Vice President and director of Harris Webb & Garrison and also served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and director of Pinnacle Management & Trust Co. Mr. Garrison co-founded both of these companies in 1994. Both Harris Webb & Garrison and Pinnacle Management & Trust Co. are subsidiaries of Sanders Morris Harris Group. In addition, Mr. Garrison serves as Chairman of the Board of BioCyte Therapeutics, a cancer diagnostic and therapeutic company focused on breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer. Mr. Garrison serves as a director of TeraForce Technology Corporation, Inc., a public defense electronics company, Somerset House Publishing, First Capital Bank, and is a member of the Finance Committee of Memorial Hermann Hospital System. He has over 36 years of experience in the securities industry. Mr. Garrison is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

    An interesting trade by Garrison. His last trades were back in 2000 and 2001 all under $3.It is interesting that he has done nothing for some years and now all of a sudden comes in and purchases a large amount of stock and near the stocks recent high.  This is similar to a pattern we saw with FLBK which we put out in February.  Those of you that bought that one know the stock was bought out at a nice profit only a month later.  At the very least this buying suggests a strong earnings report ahead followed by a higher stock price.

    From our Readers:

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    Do you have comments, thoughts or opinions on Talking Points that you would like to share? Email them to letters@talking-points.com.

    FRESH PICKS: On the Prowl

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    Weekly Stock Picks From Bob Coppo - New Feature!  

    Top Stock PickS for Monday, Apr 05, 2004:

    Good Trading!

    Bob Coppo is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

    1. APT (Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd, Apparel - accessories) $1.87 - Buy. We start off what looks to be a very uncertain week with a small undervalued spec play. With escalating violence in Iraq, a calendar full of economic reports and a busy earnings week, it's tough gauge direction for the coming sessions with any degree of certainty. Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (APT) develops, manufactures and markets a line of disposable protective apparel for the cleanroom, industrial, pharmaceutical, medical and dental markets. Its products are primarily sold under the Alpha Pro Tech brand name, but are also sold for use under private label. We came across this one based on a fundamental screen, showing solid earnings growth and strong management numbers is 2003. Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2003 increased 23.7% to $27.0 million from $21.8 million in the prior year while gross profit for the year increased 29.8% to $13.7 million, or a gross margin of 50.7%, compared to a gross profit of $10.5 million, or a gross margin of 48.3% for last year. As a percentage of net sales, selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to 31.9% from 34.1% in 2002. Net income for 2003 increased 80.8% to $3.0 million, or $0.13 per share, from $1.7 million, or $0.07 per share in 2002. These are all things we like to see in a company of this size. The only question mark is in the declining concern over SARS. Approximately $3.5 million of the $5.2 million sales increase is due to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) related sales of the N-95 mask and eye shields.Excluding the increase in non-core sales related to SARS, the Company's core business grew 7.7% for the year. APT president Al Millar commented on the SARS-inspired growth: "The outbreak of SARS had a profound impact on our financial results. We believe the outbreak led to an overall heightening of safety measures in medical facilities and led to increased demand for many of our products. Indeed, our core business grew at 8 percent exclusive of SARS-related sales. We certainly hope further outbreaks of SARS will not occur, and SARS-related sales have slowed since the end of the second quarter as the outbreak slowed. However, we anticipate strong demand for our masks and eye shields in the future due to increased awareness of the urgency of infection control precautions and we have adjusted our inventories accordingly." In terns of the fundamentals that caught our eye, the company, that grew revenues almost 24% year-to-year currently trades with an attractive price-to-earnings ratio of 14, with an equal forward P/E. We also like the looks of the zero debt load, and the management numbers showin Return on of 20.43% and return on equity of 26.67%. Looking at the chart, we also like what we see. APT is trading at the lower end of its 52-week range, having not been swept up in recent market advances. The stock made a 2004 high of $2.94 in February before giving in to more than a month-long corrective move to the downside, bottoming in March at $1.80. Since that, APT has moved mostly sideways in a consolidating fashion. Thursday, the stock made an intraday move to its 13-day MA, a key resistance point that we'll be watching closely. The stock ended the day where it began on stronger volume that seen recently. With a float of just 18 million shares, a pick-up in buying volume could move the stock quickly. We're looking for a confirmation of the reversal as a move through the 13-day MA, a move that would then open the door for a run back to the $2.25 level. Keep a stop in place after entry, as this week is likely to be quite volatile. Short-term price target: $2.10 (13% gain) Stop loss trigger: $1.75 (6% loss)

    APT Chart

    2. DFIB (Cardiac Science, Inc., Medical equipment and supplies) $3.33 - Buy. Our second play for the coming week is in the form of DFIB. Cardiac Science, Inc. is a developer, manufacturer and marketer of public access defibrillators, or automated external defibrillators (AEDs), and therapeutic patient monitor-defibrillators that instantly and automatically treat cardiac patients with life-threatening heart rhythms and those that suffer sudden cardiac arrest. The Company's proprietary software technology, RHYTHMx, and biphasic energy delivery system, STAR Biphasic, form the basis of its line of automated external defibrillator products, the Powerheart AED, and its therapeutic monitor-defibrillator, the Powerheart Cardiac Rhythm Module. This one is based far less on fundamentals than on our affection for playing short-term technical bounces. DFIB was radically sold off through most of last week to the tune of 20%, culminating in a huge-volume bloodbath Thursday that took the stock down 15% on the day. DFIB is now trading at a level not seen since July. The selloff was inspired by news that DFIB expects its first-quarter revenue to rise to between $15.6 million and $15.9 million, which is lower than expected. The Irvine, California-based company said: "The lower than expected revenue growth was primarily due to softer demand in the municipal segment of the domestic AED business combined with longer-than-expected selling cycles for larger customers. The Company's overall growth prospects are undiminished and we are very optimistic about the second quarter's revenue growth given the number of prospects in our direct sales channel pipeline, and based on the introduction of our two new AED products which will begin shipping to customers this quarter." While we aren't convinced that the fundamentals alone are worth labeling DFIB a buy, we do think the market overreacted to the announcement, a typical response from The Street, and that the stock should likely turn higher in the short-term to correct for the selloff. The stock is now deeply oversold here, and we're looking for a quick bounce trade targeting the previous March low of $3.58. If the stock can recoup and recover beyond that resistance point, we'd look to move a trailing stop in to protect those gains and allow another window to see if the stock can make secondary resistance in the $3.70 area. Short-term price target: $3.58 (8% gain) Stop loss trigger (if bought at current price): $3.15 (5% loss)

    DFIB Chart

    As always, do your own research before buying or selling any security. Our recommendations are for informational purposes only and are only our opinions. Make sure to read our Disclaimer

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