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Bob Coppo
Week on Wall Street

The Week on Wall Street

Thursday's Action:   Strong results from Yahoo and an upbeat outlook from Dell helped keep the Nasdaq in the black, but disappointment over Wal-Mart's profit prospects added to the Dow's decline. Major world markets reported mostly higher results on Thursday. London's FTSE closed up 0.47%; Frankfurt's DAX closed up 0.31%, and Paris' CAC 40 closed up 0.15%. Japan's Nikkei closed up 0.61%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.08%, and Sydney's All Ordinaries Index closed down 0.18%. In economic news, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 3 fell 14,000 to 328,000. Wholesale Inventories in February were up 1.2%. Volume came in at 1.19 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.71 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was negative, with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by 1.70, and down volume over up volume by 1.42; Nasdaq declining issues over advancing issues by 1.15, and up volume over down volume by 1.08. Leading sectors were Internets, +4.71%, Energy, +0.97%, Semiconductors, +0.89% and Oil Services, +0.88%. Laggards were Retailers, -1.46%, Gold Bugs, -1.20% and Gold/Silver, -1.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 0.50 pts lower to settle at 1489.50, while the S&P's settled down 2.70 pts at 1139.60.

Weekly Recap:   Stocks slipped slightly last week, as geopolitical events were in the spotlight again with an escalation of fighting in Iraq. Normally, that would benefit the Treasury market, but with concerns about a potential Fed rate hike, the bond market continued to decline. The benchmark 10-yr note rose 6 basis points to 4.2%.

Gold was down slightly for the week to $420.70/oz with the dollar's strength against the yen and the euro acting as a deterrent for safe-haven seekers. A spike in crude oil futures, which followed a bearish inventory report, also acted weighed on the stock and bond markets, re-igniting concerns about inflation and rising energy prices. For the week, crude oil futures gained 8% to $37.14/bbl. The key economic reports last week were mostly bullish however, with the ISM Services Index and initial jobless claims report coming in better than expected. The former checked in at 65.8 (consensus 61.5), indicating expansion on the services side of the economy, while the 328K claims (consensus 340K) for unemployment benefits marked the lowest level since January of 2001.

The earnings reporting period for Q1 officially began after Tuesday's close when Alcoa posted its results. The Dow component came in a penny short of consensus estimates. Both Alcoa, and Nokia, which issued an earnings warning, were the disappointments for the week. Yahoo, however, delivered a solid report and gained 16.3% to close the week. Overall, earnings news was generally good. General Electric, Genentech and Research In Motion all beat their respective consensus estimates, while Dell, Black & Decker, Cummins and Cigna all raised their revenue and/or earnings guidance. A number of retailers did the same after reporting March same-store sales results on Thursday. Many of those stocks failed to benefit as traders sold on the news and left flat for the long weekend.

For the week, the Dow lost -0.3%, the S&P 500 finished -0.2% lower and the Nasdaq slipped -0.2%. The small cap Russell 2000 fell -.9%. Next week is fairly heavy on the economic front, with Business inventories and Retail Sales on Tuesday, the Trade Balance and CPI on Wednesday, Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Index and the Philly Fed Survey on Thursday and Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

Inflation and the Yield Spread:   The main reason we've seen a recent jump in long term interest rates (see 10-Yr T-note Yield chart above) is bond traders "expectations" that the Fed will be forced to raise the Fed Funds rate sooner rather than later. A rising yield spread, as measured by the ratio of the 30-yr T-bond to the 13-wk T-Bill, reflects this heightened concern by the bond market. The 13-wk yield is effectively set by the Fed, as it tracks closely with the Fed Funds rate. By using the 13-wk yield as the denominator in the yield spread equation, it becomes relatively easy to spot when the Fed's monetary policy is "too easy" or "too tight". Currently, the Fed is insisting that it is going to remain "patient", meaning that it plans to hold the Fed Funds Rate near the current low level until the economy starts creating substantially more jobs. But at the same time, longer term bond yields are getting close to an upside breakout. When bond yields do eventually breakout to the upside, the yield spread will be pushed higher and the Fed will be forced to hike rates whether the jobs picture is improving or not.

When the yield spread is rising, it is often a sign that inflation expectations are also rising. That's bearish for the US Dollar and, therefore, bullish for the gold price. The Fed plays an important role because it controls short-term interest rates and consequently has a big influence on the yield spread.Ê

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Since its inception on January 2, 2002 to April 7, 2004, the America First Investor Portfolio gained a solid +181.1%. During this same time period, a buy-and-hold strategy with the S&P 500 Index lost -1.2%. On a quarterly basis, the AFI model produced steady equity growth, even during the bear market of 2002.

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The COT Report:   The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers bought some 2,600 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -10,042 contracts. Large Traders remained net short -40,046 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +50,088 contracts held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold some 1,000 contracts to bring their net long position to +20,096 contracts. Small Traders were net short -12,750 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money sell some 500 contracts to bring their net long position to just +993 contracts.

Commercial Hedgers were better buyers in the S&P's last week, but still remain net short. For the intermediate term, their position should be considered a bearish sign.

Sentiment Surveys:   The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed that the percentage of bullish newsletter writers came in at 48.5%, while the percentage of bears registered 22.8%. The bullish ratio (bulls/bulls +bears) came in at 68%.

The latest AAII survey showed an increase to 59% bulls, and a decrease to 20% bears. The bullish ratio came in at 75%, while the 4-week moving average remains high at 62%. One thing to note about the AAII survey is that, while membership in this organization is quite large as investor groups go, the number of members that actually participate in the survey is very small. Thus, large fluctuations in survey results from week to week are not uncommon.

The latest Market Vane survey came in at 69%, indicating that the majority of commodity trading advisors (CTA's) remain bullish on the future direction of the S&P's.

The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days:   We said in Wednesday night's column that the odds favored making higher highs on Thursday, and that happened. Thursday's price action favors making lower lows on Monday, and that fits with the Easter holiday seasonal bias expectation of a lower close the Monday after Easter. The stock market closed mixed on Thursday after opening higher, which is consistent with a market that is in a short-term overbought condition. On Wednesday night, we showed the Nasdaq Composite Index as being overbought. The Dow looks very similar. The INDU is backing off from its upper bollinger band with its stochastics rolling over from above 80%, an area that normally leads to short-term profit-taking. The daily MACD lines remain positive, but the RSI and CCI indicators are turning down. Volume was light due to the holiday-shortened week. With more bad news coming from Iraq, short-term traders were reluctant to carry long positions over the long weekend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is low, suggesting that the market may be entering a trading range between the highs and lows of the first quarter. While the Dow closed lower on Thursday, the Nasdaq managed a modest gain. That discrepancy can largely be explained by the action of two stocks, Yahoo and Wal-Mart. The former surged while the latter sank.

SMT's Pivot Point Forecast; 1-2 Weeks:   Our Pivot Point forecast is currently on a sell signal. Our next Pivot Point is forecast to occur on or near April 12th.

The 60-mn NDX chart below shows that the StochRSI indicator is in the BUY zone. For Monday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 1148 and then 1162. Support lies at 1126 and then 1119. For the Naz, resistance comes in at 1502 and then 1516.50. Support lies at 1477 and then 1466.

The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks:   Wal-Mart Stores is the worldÕs largest company based on sales and has led the S&P 500 Index at important turning points over the past year or so. Although same store sales were up last week, several retailers sold off and WMT was the biggest loser. The chart below shows WMT falling to a seven-week low on Thursday on rising volume and testing its 200-day moving average. The relative strength line is also dropping. If past relationships prevail, WMT could well be setting up to lead the market lower.

Our Market Trend Indicator (MTI) is currently positive and trended slightly higher on Thursday.

Good Trading!

Housekeeping:   Our telephone number has changed. The new number is 303-470-0411

Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:
StockCharts.com

Have you traded any of our recommended plays along the way? We'd love to hear from you and how you did. Please send your stories to comments@talkingpoints.com.

Jeff Neal
Tech Watch

Satellite Radio Growth

By Jeff Neal
Optionetics.com

Each week, Mr. Swing analyzes his database of more than 9,200 securities to scan for swing trading opportunities. But be warned: Do not expect a fast way to make money. Mr. Swing is going to show you how you can accumulate small gains weekly, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach. While he realizes that this short-term swingtrading approach is not for everyone, he hopes that the information given at MrSWING.com will be useful to you in the near future...

Larry Swing MrSwing.com

These are your Swing Trading Opportunities for this week: Talking Points member - Over the nearly two years that we have carried the Mr. Swing's Place column, Larry's picks have consistently put in great performances. Don't miss out on the full swing-trading content available at Mr. Swing.com. Take advantage of some of the great programs available by clicking here. Long Swings: bullish SWINGS ^ click here CMCSA FDRY DD AV BBY MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND FORCE3<= 0 AND FORCE13>=0 AND ADX10>30 AND HIGH < HIGH1 and HIGH1 < HIGH2 AND CLOSE > SMAC10 and CLOSE > SMAC20 Short Swings: bearish what is short selling? SWINGS ^ click here NFI MCO AFR SY DRL MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND FORCE3>=0 AND FORCE13<=0 AND ADX10>30 AND LOW >LOW1 and LOW1 > LOW2 AND CLOSE < SMAC10 and CLOSE < SMAC20 WINDOW ^ click here GLW ABX ACS EXC PAAS MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5   WINDOW ^ click here TDW MCO ACG NDC MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5 1-2-3-4 ^ click here BSX DD BBY AMR SBUX MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1 and HIGH1< HIGH2   1-2-3-4 ^ click here ADRX MCO TMA SY NDC MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH> HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2 CROSS ^ click here SBUX ABX GNSS TLRK EXC MAV20 >= 500000 AND CLOSE >12 AND SMAC5 > SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC5 AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND HIGH<HIGH1 AND CLOSE > OPEN   CROSS ^ click here DISH MGAM DRL NDC MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND SMAC5< SMAC15 AND CLOSE> SMAC5 AND CLOSE < SMAC15 and LOW > LOW1 and CLOSE < OPEN REVIVAL ^ click here / MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >= 0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE > SMAC50   REVIVAL ^ click here PLCE AFR TMA LUM MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1) >= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC50 REVERSE ^ click here HOTT MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW2 > LOW1 AND LOW1 > LOW AND CLOSE2 <= OPEN2 AND CLOSE1 <= OPEN1 AND CLOSE >= OPEN AND VOLUME>1.5* MAV20   REVERSE ^ click here VRX MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH2 < HIGH1 AND HIGH1 < HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW1 < LOW AND CLOSE2 >= OPEN2 AND CLOSE1 >= OPEN1 AND CLOSE <= OPEN AND VOLUME>1.5* MAV20 TRIANGLE ^ click here JBLU IR TUP MEE FO MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND CLOSE> SMAC20 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH2 > HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW2 < LOW AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW1 < LOW   TRIANGLE ^ click here PCL WFMI VTR MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND CLOSE < SMAC20 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH2 > HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW2 < LOW AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW1 < LOW BREAKOUTS ^ click here IPIX DCLK ALL MWY INSP MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW )   BREAKDOWNS ^ click here FRED MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW) REVERSALS ^ click here HOTT MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>12 AND LOW <= MIN40_1 AND VOLUME>2* MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN   REVERSALS ^ click here BSTE IPAS FWHT PAL ASCA MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH >= MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>2* MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing. Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST... Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...   REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing. Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST... Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB... INTC (Short) - Chart of the Week Larry Swing Analysis: Our COTW today covers a trade based purely on technical analysis; a short-trade on INTC.  The stock appears likely to continue its decline for four important reasons: The stock has formed a good-looking bear flag; the stock declined on heavy volume, and then made the classic “abcde” bottom.  That is, a low, a small advance to a high, a small decline to a low, another small advance, then a decline through the line drawn from one low to the next. SwingTracker MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index   Volume has negatively followed the stock’s movements; it has risen during declines, and fallen during advances.  This suggests that the information content is higher during the declines than the advances.  In other words, the “smart” money is probably selling. The stock has shown extremely poor relative strength, and has diverged negatively from the NASDAQ.  Furthermore, since the stock’s volatility has remained high, and the stock did not participate well in the recent rally, it appears likely that this divergence is sustainable. SwingTracker MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index   The NASDAQ withdrew to important gap support Wednesday.  Should the support level fail, a broad decline is likely. SwingTracker MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index   Key Levels: Stop short:  27.24, a little below Wednesday’s low.  A decline to this level should be accompanied by a support break on the NASDAQ.   Stop loss:  28.76, a little above point “d” on the bear flag (the most recent downside inversion point).   Target:  26.16.  This is just above the stock’s recent lows.  We will take profits early because of the recently high directionless market volatility, and because this level is significant support.  Aggressive traders may reopen the short if 25.24 fails (this is the pivot point of an old bull flag that led to a major rally that has not yet been completely retraced). >TRADE in the DIRECTION OF THE MARKET<

Mr.Swing DISCLAIMER: Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MRSWING.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the strategies described above. © Copyright 2002, MrSwing.com. All rights reserved. COPYING AND OR ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF THIS DOCUMENT WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONSENT OF MRSWING.COM IS A VIOLATION OF THE COPYRIGHT LAW.

THE TRADER'S MINDSET: If You Can't Pull the Trigger, Fear is Stopping You / by Bennett McDowell, Columnist

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Founder and President of TradersCoach.com, Bennett started his financial career on Wall Street with the firm J.J. Kenny Co. in 1984 after serving as an officer in the U.S. Navy. Bennett also served as a Retirement Plan Specialist with the Equitable in New York and has investment real estate experience as well. In addition, his 1979 Economics BA degree from Syracuse University in upstate New York gave him a foundation on which he was able to build a solid background in Finance. Bennett has extensive experience in trading the financial markets and is currently an active trader including day trading the financial futures markets. He also coaches many traders through his company TradersCoach.com. Considered an expert in technical analysis and complex computer trading platforms and applications, Bennett has educated and helped traders worldwide improve their trading. Bennett is well known for helping traders overcome sabotaging psychological issues that keep them from reaching their full potential. In addition to his educational and coaching abilities, Bennett, a registered securities broker, manages money and trades for clients throughout the United States. Bennett released his home study course Applied Reality Trading, also known as "ART" in January 2002. His cutting-edge course teaches traders his state of the art Pyramid Trading Points, Money management, and developing the "Trader's Mindset." Bennett is also known for developing The Trader's Assistant - a premier trade-posting record-keeping system for traders, as well as writing and publishing The Survival Guide For Traders, a book on how to set up and organize your trading business. Bennett provides private consultation/coaching services to many traders throughout the world by telephone, video conferencing, and in person. Working with Bennett, traders spend time focusing on trading system development, trading psychology, and disciplined money management.

Bennett McDowell The Trader's Mindset Columnist

If You Can't Pull The Trigger, Fear Is Stopping You! By Bennett McDowell, President, TradersCoach.com Fear can be good thing if it is based in reality. When fear is based on fantasy or on past events that do not correctly represent reality, then fear is destructive. I think the first question to ask yourself should be: Is your fear based on reality or fantasy? If the answer is a lack of confidence then that maybe your fear is based on reality because your body is telling you to be better prepared. If this is the case, then you need to "Paper Trade" until you build your confidence enough that those feelings of fear dissipate. If the answer is that your fear is based on fantasy then you need to rid yourself of this fear before trading. Examples of this are seeing yourself failing before you even begin. Or visions of losing everything based on other trader's experiences, etc. Basically the best way to eliminate this type of fear is to make trading fun again and not filled with worry and anxiety. This is where trading with risk control using the proper trade size should allow you to trade without worry. Say to yourself, if I am stopped out, I am within my risk tolerance, so why should I worry? Also, don't focus on individual trade results. Instead, focus on how you did over a period of 35 trades and how these results compare to the testing that you have previously done. If your state of mind hinges on the outcome of a single trade then you will be nervous wreak while trading and fear manifests more fear and then you will be trading from a fearful mindset and you will never win because you will be emotionally trading. If you feel that ever happening to you, stop trading and take some time off to re-charge yourself and only trade again when you mindset is one of abundance and trading is fun. You need to make trading fun, so remove enough risk until it is. Try not to focus on the money, instead try to focus on what the market is saying and stay in the here and now. Every time you think about anything other then what is happening right now, you are fantasying and are not living in the present moment. Successful trading REQUIRES you to live in the present moment! Make trading fun by removing the complexity of it and simplifying you're trading and your self. When you trade you want to be relaxed and just flow with the markets like a leaf flows with a stream of water. Go where the markets want you to go, and when the water gets too rough, get out and go to another stream. Bennett McDowell, President www.TradersCoach.com Free Video – Trading The Perfect Business! 10755-F Scripps Poway Parkway, #477 San Diego, CA. 92131 858-695-1985 http://www.traderscoach.com TradersCoach@msn.com Copyrighted © 2003 TradersCoach.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

Weekly Stock Picks From Bob Coppo - New Feature!   Top Stock PickS for Monday, Apr 05, 2004: PBCP Good Trading! Bob Coppo is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.