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April 25, 2004
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PREMIUM EDITION
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Issue #114
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Latest Updates:
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| WEEK ON WALL STREET: Week In Review / by Bob Coppo |
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| Our new Week on Wall Street columnist is Bob Coppo. Bob is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com. |
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The Week on Wall Street
Friday's Action: Markets finished mixed Friday, but moved higher in late trading on positive economic news and upbeat earnings led by tech-giant Microsoft. Major world markets closed mostly higher. London's FTSE closed down 0.04%; Frankfurt's DAX closed up 1.10%, and Paris' CAC 40 closed up 0.68%. Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 1.78%, and Sydney's All Ordinaries closed up 0.57%. In economic news, the Durable Goods report for March was up 3.4%, higher than expected. Volume came in at 1.39 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.95 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was mixed, with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by 1.89, and down volume over up volume by 1.50; Nasdaq declining issues over advancing issues by 1.16, and up volume over down volume by 1.81. Leading sectors were Semiconductors +1.56%, Retailers,+ 0.20% and Hardware, +0.20%. Laggards were Airlines, -2.05%, Homebuilders, -1.46% and Internets -1.16%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 14 pts higher to settle at 1498, while the S&P's settled up 2.70 pts at 1139.50.
Weekly Recap: It was a choppy week on Wall Street. The bearish implications of impending higher interest rates vied with the bullish impact of strong earnings growth, with the earnings numbers proving slightly more influential. Almost 50% of Dow components reported and over 35% of the S&P 500 companies. Through Friday, over 75% of the reports were above the average Wall Street forecast, well above the normal 60%. Total operating earnings growth is running over 3% ahead of expectations, which suggests that the final gain for the S&P 500 will be over 20% for the third straight month.
On the economy, initial jobless claims for the week ended April 17 fell 9,000 to 353,000, but that was somewhat disappointing after the 32,000 increase the prior week, suggesting only a moderate gain in April nonfarm payrolls to be reported in early May. The March PPI rose 0.5%, but the core rate was up only 0.2%. The biggest economic news came on Friday, as March durable goods orders were up a very strong 3.4%. The February increase was revised to +3.8% from an originally reported 2.5% gain and reflects strong business investment. Orders in the first quarter have been strong across the board, and support expectations that real GDP for the period will be up 5% or more. The 10-year note yield closed Friday at 4.44%, up from 4.35% at the close of the prior week. A rise through 4.50% could be psychologically negative for stocks. Still, investor focus is expected to remain on earnings.
For the week, the Dow edged up +0.2%, the S&P 500 finished +.5% higher and the Nasdaq rose +2.7%. The small cap Russell 2000 gained +1.3%. The earnings calendar is jam packed again next week. Some of the major companies scheduled to report include AmeriSource Bergen, Electronic Data Systems, Humana, Pulte Homes, Sysco, Zimmer, Aflac, AirTran Holdings, Avaya, BP, DuPont, Lockheed Martin, McDonalds, R.J. Reynolds Tobacco, United States Steel, UTStarcom, Verizon, Anthem, Applebee's, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Halliburton, QLogic, Symantec, and Boeing.
Greenspan and Deflation: During testimony before Congress last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that deflation is "no longer an issue." Recent Fed policy had stated that inflation and deflation were equal risks. Greenspan said companies are regaining pricing power, but maintained that strong productivity growth should curb inflation for the time being. He is currently optimistic about the economy and job growth. What seemed like optimistic comments about the economy by the Fed Chairman did little to sooth the equity markets. Stocks plunged after investors took Greenspan's comments to mean that inflation is now a concern and that interest rate hikes are imminent.
While Greenspan is now saying what the markets have been telling us for the past year, that deflation is not a serious threat, the markets have started to focus elsewhere. The price of almost everything has risen over the past year because inflation has been seen everywhere except the debt market. The price of money is about the only commodity that has not experienced a substantial rise. What the markets appear to be worrying about now, however, is that the price of money (interest rates) will soon rise and that will force down the prices of all investments that have benefited from inflation over the past year, such as interest rate sensitive stocks.
Bond prices have dropped dramatically over the past month as the bond market has been anticipating a move to higher interest rates. But recent price drops in commodities have occurred (see the CRB and GYX charts below), suggesting that the rapid rise in inflation expectations is abating. In other words, at about the same time Greenspan has started talking about an end to the deflation risk, the markets have begun to anticipate a reduction to the inflation risk. Greenspan, it would seem, is woefully behind to curve.
Ê
A Conservative Approach to Long Term Investing: Our investment philosophy has always been to diversify our capital between high risk and more conservative vehicles. We believe conservative investing should be viewed with an eye towards retirement. The ideal investment vehicle would preserve capital while still generating acceptable long term growth. America First Investor has developed just such an investment model. Based on a Nobel prize winning theory of asset allocation and sector rotation, the model has produced solid results over the last two years. In 2002, the AFI model produced gains of 82.3% while the bench mark S&P 500 Index lost 23.4%. In 2003, the model outperformed the S&P again, gaining 43.9% to 26.4%. But just as important, the maximum monthly draw-down was only 5.1%, while the average draw down was less than 3.0%. Compare that to an average monthly gain of 4.0% and an impressive 88.9% win to loss ratio and you get an idea of just how solid this model is.
Since its inception on January 2, 2002 to April 22, 2004, the America First Investor Portfolio gained a solid +164.5%. During this same time period, a buy-and-hold strategy with the S&P 500 Index lost -1.3%. On a quarterly basis, the AFI model produced steady equity growth, even during the bear market of 2002.
America First is offering first time subscribers a FREE 30-day Trial. To learn more, click HERE.
The COT Report: The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers sold some 4,600 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -11,727 contracts. Large Traders remained net short -31,990 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +43,717 contracts held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold some 800 contracts to bring their net long position to +18,888 contracts. Small Traders were net short -10,893 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money buy some 1,400 contracts to bring their net long position to just +2,147 contracts.
Commercial Hedgers were better sellers in the S&P's last week, and remain net short. For the intermediate term, their position should be considered a bearish sign.
Sentiment Surveys: The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed that the percentage of bullish newsletter writers came in at 49.5%, while the percentage of bears registered 21.2%. The bullish ratio (bulls/bulls +bears) came in at 70.0%.
The latest AAII survey showed an decrease to 50% bulls, and an increase to 23% bears. The bullish ratio came in at 69%, while the 4-week moving average remains high at 64%. One thing to note about the AAII survey is that, while membership in this organization is quite large as investor groups go, the number of members that actually participate in the survey is very small. Thus, large fluctuations in survey results from week to week are not uncommon.
The latest Market Vane survey came in at 64%, indicating that the majority of commodity trading advisors (CTA's) remain bullish on the future direction of the S&P's.
The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days: We said in Thursday night's column that the odds favored making higher highs on Friday, and that happened. Friday's price action favors making higher highs on Monday. While the major averages managed to close in positive territory Friday, market internals were not at all positive. Breadth was mostly negative and both the SPX and the NDX formed narrow range days. Narrow range days, sometimes called "wimp" days, are often transition or trend change points. Since the short-term trend has been up, this could mean a trend reversal or a consolidation. Also negative Friday was the action of the VIX volatility index. The VIX closed below it's lower bollinger band, signifying that volatility has been stretched "out-of-bounds". Unlike stocks, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning that it can't remain out of bounds for very long. And rising volatility means a declining stock market.
Also negative is the New High-New Low Index for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. While the Nasdaq is approaching recent highs, the NAHL is making much lower highs, and actually turned down on Friday. That's not a good sign, since it means fewer and fewer stocks have been leading the Nasdaq higher.
The NDX led the market averages Friday with a gain of 0.8%. But in the process, the NDX hit important trendline resistance. The NDX is in overbought territory and will be challenged to break above that resistance line.
SMT's Pivot Point Forecast; 1-2 Weeks: Our Pivot Point forecast is currently on a sell signal. Our next Pivot Point is forecast to occur on or near April 12th.
The 60-mn NDX chart below shows that the StochRSI indicator is in the SELL zone. For Monday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 1143.50 and then 1147.50. Support lies at 1134.50 and then 1129. For the Naz, resistance comes in at 1505.50 and then 1511. Support lies at 1490.50 and then 1481.
The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks: A chart we've shown in the past is the monthly S&P 500 Index with its 80-mth moving average. What's interesting about this chart is the fact that the SPX has been unable to close above this resistance line for the last four months now. The 80-mth ma corresponds roughly with the 50% retracement from March 2000 high to the October 2002 low. In a secular bear market, the 50% retracement is an important psychological resistance level, and so far, it has remained intact.
Our Market Trend Indicator (MTI) is currently positive and trended slightly higher on Friday.
Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:
StockCharts.com
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Last week's Fresh Picks took a fall on the ugly performance of semi play CCMP. The stock plunged after earnings disappointed and were followed by the obligatory day-late-and-dollar-short analyst downgrades. Despite the fact that our rec hit its stop target for a 3% loss in the pre-market session, we like the entry point here even more after the gap down at the open. Keep this one on your radar.
Our second play last week was telco pick LVLT, which met a similar fate, getting stopped out for a 6% loss. Together then, the Fresh Picks suffered through one of our worst week in recent months for a 5% average loss.
Make sure to also have a look at the Track Record page on the site for our 2003 monthly breakdown showing each and every Fresh Pick from the year, along with its price when recommended and where it ended the year. For specific targets and stops, please see the archives.
Have you traded any of our recommended plays along the way? We'd love to hear from you and how you did. Please send your stories to comments@talkingpoints.com.
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| TECH WATCH: Satellite Radio Growth / by Jeff Neal, Technical Market Columnist |
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Jeff Neal is a veteran options strategist and trader with over a decade of experience in the trading business. Jeff has had a diversified business career operating a very successful management consulting business with his clients representing some of the largest companies in the world.
He has a B.S. in Computer Science from Indiana University and an MBA in Finance from the University of Indianapolis. Jeff is a writer, mentor, and options strategist for Optionetics (http://www.optionetics.com/) and as head of his own hedge fund is an active options trader in both the equity and futures markets.
Jeff Neal - Staff Writer & Options Strategist - Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
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Jeff's Tech Watch column will return next week.
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| MARKET TA: Riding the Waves / by Dale Woodson, Technical Market Columnist |
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Dale Woodson is the editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.
We encourage our subscribers to visit his site at http://www.woodsonwave.com and please see Dale's complete bio following his column.
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TIMER DIGEST’S (P.O. BOX 1688, Greenwich, CT. 06836/ 203-629-3503)
#9 LONG TERM STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THE YEAR 2003.
#4 GOLD MARKET TIMER FOR THE YEAR 2003.
#8 STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THE FIVE-YEAR PERIOD OF 12/31/98- 12/31/03.
#6 STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THREE-YEAR PERIOD OF 12/29/00- 12/31/03.
#4 STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THREE-YEAR PERIOD OF 12/31/99- 12/31/02.
#5 STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THREE-YEAR PERIOD OF 12/31/98- 12/31/01.
#4 STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THE YEAR 2001.
#7 STOCK MARKET TIMER FOR THE YEAR 2000.
#5 BOND MARKET TIMER FOR THREE-YEAR PERIOD OF 12/31/99- 12/31/02.
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DOW
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WAVE DEGREE
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COUNT
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FROM
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DIRECTION
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TARGET
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GRAND
SUPERCYCLE
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THREE
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1784
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UP
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Year 2012
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SUPERCYCLE
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(V)
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1932 or 1942
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UP
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Year 2012*
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CYCLE
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V
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12/6/74 or 8/12/82
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UP
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Year 2012
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PRIMARY
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4
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8/24/99
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DOWN
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.618 = 5803
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INTERMEDIATE
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(A)
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8/24/99
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DOWN
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Complete @ 8062 on 9/21/01
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(B)
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9/21/01
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UP
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Complete @ 10,673 on 3/19/02
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(C)
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3/19/02
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DOWN
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Complete @ 7197 on 10/10/02
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(D)
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10/10/02
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UP
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Topping, high 10,753 on 2/19/04
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(E)
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12/31/03
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DOWN
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.500 = 6865/ .618 = 5803
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PRIMARY
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5
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NOT YET
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UP
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Year 2012
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* "…it should terminate about the year 2012"
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* "...not expected to terminate until about 2012"
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R. N. Elliott, Educational Bulletin O
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R.N. Elliott, Interpretive Letter No. 17
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October 26, 1942.
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August 25, 1941.
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Primary degree wave 2 down (1987 - 1990) running flat correction.
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Primary degree wave 3 up (1990 - 1999)
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Primary degree wave 4 down (8/24/99 -?)
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Dale's column will return next week
Dale Woodson is editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.
Timer Digest rates Woodson Wave Report as the #5 stock market timer and #5 bond market timer for the three-year period from 12/31/98 through 12/31/2001. Woodson broke into the top ten rated stock market timers by placing #7 in the year 2000. He followed that up with a #4 rating for the year in 2001. These ratings were achieved during a period when market timing was extremely difficult as the bull market was turning over to bear and most were caught off guard.
While there is no feeling like catching a turn on the dime, Dale especially enjoys writing the newsletter. He is most proud of the numerous correspondences complimenting him on his writing abilities. He has a real passion for his work. He knows that the market will move in certain Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci sequences. His challenge is to identify those patterns and sequences in advance, while there is still time to profit from them.
Woodson Wave Report offers monthly, quarterly and yearly subscriptions. Newsletters are delivered via email and URL links and are published on the first Friday of every month. Special interim reports are released as market conditions warrant and targets are achieved. All new annual subscribers receive two months free.
You can subscribe to Woodson Wave Report via the secure online order form link below: http://www.woodsonwave.com/orderform.html
Disclaimer: The Woodson Wave Report combines Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci ratios to identify turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 cash, bond and gold markets with respect to both price and time. The monthly newsletter is generally released on the first Friday of the month and special interim reports are issued as market conditions warrant and as targets are achieved. The information contained in the report is prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be taken as an offer to buy or sell any investment vehicle. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Woodson Wave Report is waived of any liabilities.
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| GOLD RUSH: Golden Bear Romps/ by John Dowdee, Ph.D., Gold Editor |
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Golden Bear Romps
Last week the golden bear continued to romp, inflicting major damage on the bull. The week started on a plus note with bullion opening slightly above the psychologically important $400 level. The bull gathered strength as the yellow metal added over $5.00 to reach a high of $406.50. But this was the last hooray for the bull. For most of the week, the bear was firmly in charge, driving gold all the way down to the 200 day moving average at $390.20. Gold bounced off the moving average to close the week at $395.70.
The main culprit in the demise of the precious metals has been the strength of the dollar. The dollar continued its strong advance last week and closed just below the 200 day moving average. There is a confluence of resistance around the 92 level so it is likely that the dollar may stall for a few weeks, which could be the opening gold needs for a short term rally.
As shown by the MACD, bullion has become oversold and may be ready for a bounce. Over the next few weeks, gold could easily tack on another $20 per ounce and sprint up to the $416 to $418 resistance area. However, if the dollar rallies above 92 and gold falls below support at $388 to $390, it will not bode well for the bulls.
The other precious metal, silver, has seen a much more violent plunge. Just a few weeks ago, silver bulls were dancing around $8.50 an ounce but then the bears crashed the party. Silver plummeted over 30% to around $6.00 an ounce. Like gold, silver is also oversold and could see a nice bounce before the descent continues.
Gold stocks, as measured by the XAU index, are even weaker than the metal. The XAU has already dived through both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The XAU opened the week at 95.55 but quickly sunk to a low of 87.09 before recovering slightly to close the week at 88.12. Gold stocks have now reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. If gold can rally short term, then the XAU should also benefit and could easily rally back to at least the 200 day moving average.
The short term trends for both gold and gold stocks are down. The old saying that the “trend is your friend” is good advice. It is dangerous to try to pick a bottom or play bounces. The conservative approach is to wait until a low is firmly in place and the upward trend has resumed. However, if you are a risk taker and would like to try to catch the bouncing ball, you may want to look at Barrick Gold (ABX). This stock is still above its 200 day moving average and will likely rally strongly when (and if) the price of gold moves upward.
I realize the above commentary paints a bleak picture of the precious metal market. For the short term, I believe the market will be treacherous. Gold has been in long bull market and was overdue for a pullback. The first phase of the advance is now over but I do not believe the long term bear market has resumed. This is just a normal correction in a developing super-bull market, which should eventually take bullion to over $1000 an ounce. The correction that is now unfolding may be the last great buying opportunity of the decade. As the storm clouds clear, I believe the sun will shine brightly again. When this happens, we will try to jump back onto the gold train before it picks up too much speed.
Remember that gold stocks are volatile and are not for everyone. You should never depend on anyone else’s opinion. You should do your own due diligence and evaluate your risk tolerance before making decisions to buy (or sell) any stocks or funds. Best of luck!
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| MR. SWING'S PLACE: Weekly Swing Trading Ideas / by Larry Swing |
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Each week, Mr. Swing analyzes his database of more than 9,200 securities to scan for swing trading opportunities. But be warned: Do not expect a fast way to make money. Mr. Swing is going to show you how you can accumulate small gains weekly, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach. While he realizes that this short-term swingtrading approach is not for everyone, he hopes that the information given at MrSWING.com will be useful to you in the near future...
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These are your Swing Trading Opportunities for this week:
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Talking Points member - Over the nearly two years that we have carried the Mr. Swing's Place column, Larry's picks have consistently put in great performances. Don't miss out on the full swing-trading content available at Mr. Swing.com. Take advantage of some of the great programs available by clicking here.
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Long
Swings:
bullish
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SWINGS
^
click here
DBD
DRXR
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND FORCE3<= 0
AND FORCE13>=0 AND ADX10>30 AND HIGH <
HIGH1 and HIGH1 < HIGH2 AND CLOSE > SMAC10
and CLOSE > SMAC20
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Short
Swings:
bearish
what
is
short
selling?
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SWINGS
^
click here
NOK
AMD
KRB
MU
CY
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND FORCE3>=0 AND
FORCE13<=0 AND ADX10>30 AND LOW >LOW1 and
LOW1 > LOW2 AND CLOSE < SMAC10 and CLOSE <
SMAC20 |
WINDOW
^
click here
TBUS
MDT
SPLS
BP
RD
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND
PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5 |
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WINDOW
^
click here
AXP
IDTI
MCD
SINA
FDRY
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND
PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5 |
1-2-3-4
^
click here
MDT
DBD
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2
> 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND
LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1
and HIGH1< HIGH2 |
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1-2-3-4
^
click here
CSCO
NOK
CY
MXIM
SLM
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2
> 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20)
AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH>
HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2
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CROSS
^
click here
GSK
RD
VOD
SC
DBD
MAV20 >= 500000 AND CLOSE >12 AND SMAC5 >
SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC5 AND CLOSE > SMAC15
AND HIGH<HIGH1 AND CLOSE > OPEN |
|
CROSS
^
click here
AMGN
JNPR
HPQ
QCOM
TWN
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND SMAC5<
SMAC15 AND CLOSE> SMAC5 AND CLOSE < SMAC15
and LOW > LOW1 and CLOSE < OPEN
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REVIVAL
^
click here
/
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1)
<= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >=
0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE
> SMAC50 |
|
REVIVAL
^
click here
MAT
RIG
DHI
AEP
CIT
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1)
>= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <=
0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE
< SMAC50 |
REVERSE
^
click here
FRX
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1
AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW2 > LOW1 AND LOW1
> LOW AND CLOSE2 <= OPEN2 AND CLOSE1 <=
OPEN1 AND CLOSE >= OPEN AND VOLUME>1.5* MAV20 |
|
REVERSE
^
click here
GILD
ACF
CELG
IMDC
IWO
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH2 < HIGH1
AND HIGH1 < HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW1
< LOW AND CLOSE2 >= OPEN2 AND CLOSE1 >=
OPEN1 AND CLOSE <= OPEN AND VOLUME>1.5* MAV20 |
TRIANGLE
^
click here
EWT
HBAN
ESRX
DRXR
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND CLOSE> SMAC20
AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH2 > HIGH AND LOW2
< LOW1 AND LOW2 < LOW AND HIGH1 > HIGH
AND LOW1 < LOW |
|
TRIANGLE
^
click here
TASR
N
NVTL
TRB
GNTX
HDWR
MAV20
>=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND CLOSE < SMAC20
AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH2 > HIGH AND LOW2
< LOW1 AND LOW2 < LOW AND HIGH1 > HIGH
AND LOW1 < LOW |
BREAKOUTS
^
click here
MCHP
NBIX
IMGN
MAV20
>=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and
HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20
AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and (
( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW ) |
|
BREAKDOWNS
^
click here
ELX
ARDI
STE
MAV20
>=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND
LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE
< OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE -
LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW) |
REVERSALS
^
click here
FRW
MMC
KMX
BSG
MAV20
>=200000 AND CLOSE>12 AND LOW <= MIN40_1
AND VOLUME>2* MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN |
|
REVERSALS
^
click here
BRCM
GILD
MEE
CAMD
GYI
MAV20
>=200000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH >= MAX40_1
AND VOLUME>2* MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN |
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REVIVAL
(Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3)
are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you
the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are explained
in our new section called: SWINGLAB...
|
|
REVIVAL
(Track1)
+ REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are
different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits
you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained
in our new section called: SWINGLAB...
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Analysis:
Our COTW today is a pure technical play: RMK. The stock has formed an ascending triangle with excellently following volume, following a strong rally, and with the highs of the pattern challenging old resistance (28.20). The breakout that occurred yesterday occurred on a significant volume—approximately 1.5x the recent average.
Key Levels:
The stock closed precisely at resistance on Wednesday. We would like to see the highs of the day beaten before becoming more bullish. Stop buy: 28.36.
Stop loss: 27.24, just below the lows of Wednesday, and the lower trend-line of the ascending triangle.
Target: 29.97, just below the pattern’s technical target.
(2*28.20)-26.35 = 30.05, where 28.20 is the pivot point for the pattern, and 26.35 is the low of the triangle.
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>TRADE in the DIRECTION OF THE MARKET<
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| Mr.Swing DISCLAIMER: Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MRSWING.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the strategies described above. © Copyright 2002, MrSwing.com. All rights reserved. COPYING AND OR ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF THIS DOCUMENT WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONSENT OF MRSWING.COM IS A VIOLATION OF THE COPYRIGHT LAW. |
| THE TRADER'S MINDSET: Trading Psychology - "The Trader's Mindset" / by Bennett McDowell, Columnist |
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Founder and President of TradersCoach.com, Bennett started his financial career on Wall Street with the firm J.J. Kenny Co. in 1984 after serving as an officer in the U.S. Navy. Bennett also served as a Retirement Plan Specialist with the Equitable in New York and has investment real estate experience as well. In addition, his 1979 Economics BA degree from Syracuse University in upstate New York gave him a foundation on which he was able to build a solid background in Finance.
Bennett has extensive experience in trading the financial markets and is currently an active trader including day trading the financial futures markets. He also coaches many traders through his company TradersCoach.com.
Considered an expert in technical analysis and complex computer trading platforms and applications, Bennett has educated and helped traders worldwide improve their trading. Bennett is well known for helping traders overcome sabotaging psychological issues that keep them from reaching their full potential. In addition to his educational and coaching abilities, Bennett, a registered securities broker, manages money and trades for clients throughout the United States.
Bennett released his home study course Applied Reality Trading, also known as "ART" in January 2002. His cutting-edge course teaches traders his state of the art Pyramid Trading Points, Money management, and developing the "Trader's Mindset." Bennett is also known for developing The Trader's Assistant - a premier trade-posting record-keeping system for traders, as well as writing and publishing The Survival Guide For Traders, a book on how to set up and organize your trading business.
Bennett provides private consultation/coaching services to many traders throughout the world by telephone, video conferencing, and in person. Working with Bennett, traders spend time focusing on trading system development, trading psychology, and disciplined money management.
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Trading Psychology – “The Trader’s Mindset”
Developing “The Trader’s Mindset” is a must for trading success and this can take some time. This is not an area where you can take a short cut or learn a formula. You usually develop it by actually trading and the experiences you gain from trading. A developed “Trader’s Mindset” and help you handle account draw-downs, losses, and profits. Yes, profits or winning can actually cause stress!
Your Psychology and beliefs will be a major determining factor in your trading results. Consider this example, where the same successful trading approach is used by a hundreds traders and usually no two of them will trade it exactly the same way. Why? Because each trader has a unique belief system, and their beliefs will determine their trading style and their trading results. That is why even with a profitable and proven trading approach, many traders will fail. They do not have the proper belief system to enable them to trade well. In other words, they lack “The Trader’s Mindset.”
When you encounter psychological issues it is best to recognize the issues, just be aware of them and don’t deny they exist. In order to “fix” psychological issues, we must first become aware of the issues that are causing the problems in order to heal. This is much of what psychoanalysis is all about. The psychologist or psycho- therapist tries to get the patient first to recognize issues that are causing their problems. The patient must believe that these issues are causing the problem in order for the patient to heal. The reason this process can take so long, perhaps even years, is because the patient needs to not only recognize their problems, but must accept that there truly is a problem. They must take responsibility for their problems to heal. As traders, we need must take responsibility for our trading results in order to make changes and be profitable.
Success in trading is a direct result of a sound trading system, sound money management, proper capitalization, and sound psychology. All of these must be in sync to be successful in your trading. The only area where you may need additional help once you have mastered your trading skills is your psychology.
Mastering your psychology is an ongoing process that really never ends. To master your psychology to be a profitable trader can take time, and the amount of time will be different for each trader.
Here is a list of common psychological trading issues and their causes:
1.Fear Of Being Stopped Out Or Fear Of Taking A Loss: The usual reason for this is that the trader fears failure and feels like he or she cannot take another loss. The trader’s ego is at stake.
2.Getting Out Of Trades Too Early: Relieving anxiety by closing a position. Fear of position reversing and then feeling let down. Need for instant gratification.
3.Adding On To A Losing Position (Doubling Down): Not wanting to admit your trade is wrong. Hoping it will come back. Again, ego is at stake.
4.Wishing And Hoping: Not wanting to take control or take responsibility for the trade. Inability to accept the present reality of the market place.
5.Compulsive Trading: Drawn to the excitement of the markets. Addiction and Gambling issues are present. Needing to feel you are in the game.
6.Anger After A Losing Trade: The feeling of being a victim of the markets. Unrealistic expectations. Caring too much about a specific trade. Tying your self-worth to your success in the markets. Needing approval from the markets.
7.Excessive Joy After A Winning Trade: Tying your self-worth to the markets. Feeling unrealistically “in control” of the markets.
8.Limiting Profits: You don’t deserve to be successful. You don’t deserve money or profits. Usually psychological issues such as poor self-esteem.
9.Not Following Your Proven Trading System: You don’t believe it really works. You did not test it well. It does not match your personality. You want more excitement in your trading. You don’t trust your own ability to chose a successful system.
10. Over Thinking The Trade, Second Guessing Your Trading
Signals: Fear of loss or being wrong. Wanting a sure thing where sure things don’t exist. Not understanding that loss is a part of trading and the outcome of each trade is unknown. Not accepting there is risk in trading. Not accepting the unknown.
11. Not Trading The Correct Position Size: Dreaming the trade will
be only profitable. Not fully recognizing the risk and not
understanding the importance of money management. Refusing
to take responsibility for managing your risk.
12. Trading Too Much: Need to conquer the market. Greed.
Trying to get even with the market for a previous loss. The
excitement of trading (similar to Compulsive Trading).
13. Afraid To Trade: No trading system in place. Not comfortable
with risk and the unknown. Fear of total loss. Fear of ridicule.
Need for control. Fear of another loss. No trust in your trading.
14. Irritable after the Trading Day: Emotional roller coaster due to
anger, fear, and greed. Putting too much attention on trading
results and not enough on the process and learning the skill of
trading. Focusing on the money too much. Unrealistic trading
expectations.
15. Trading With Money You Cannot Afford To Lose Or Trading
With Borrowed Money: Last hope at success. Trying to be
successful at something. Fear of losing your chance at
opportunity. No discipline. Greed. Desperation.
These are by no means all the psychological issues, but these are the most common. They usually center on the fact that for one reason or another, the trader is not following their chosen trading approach or system. And instead prefers to wing it or trade their emotions which in trading will always get you in trouble.
Our goal as traders in regards to psychology is to maintain an even keel so to speak when trading. Our winning trades and losing trades should not affect us. Obviously we are trading better when we are winning, but emotionally we should strive to maintain an even balance emotionally in regards to our wins and our losses.
Obtaining “The Trader’s Mindset” takes time. It will happen when it happens, and when you achieve this level of mental ability; it will come after working long and hard on yourself. It may even happen without you even knowing it. It usually happens when you least expect it.
Below is a list of what one feels after acquiring “The Trader’s Mindset.”
1. Sense of calmness
2. Ability to focus on the present reality
3. Not caring which way the market breaks or moves
4. Always aligning trades in the direction of the market, flowing
with the market
5. Not caring about the money
6. Always looking to improve your skills
7. Profits now accumulating and flowing in as your skills improve
8. Keeping an open mind, keeping opinions to a minimum
9. Accepting the risk in trading
10. No Anger
11. Learning from every trade
12. Winning and losing trades accepted equally from an emotional
standpoint
13. Enjoying the process
14. Trading your chosen approach or system and not being
influenced by the market or others
15. Not feeling a need to conquer or control the “market”
16. Feeling confident and feeling in control of “yourself”
17. A sense of not forcing the markets or yourself
18. Trading with money you can afford to risk
19. No feeling of ever being victimized by the markets
20. Taking full responsibility for your trading
When you can read the list above and genuinely say that’s me, you have arrived!
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| CONTRARIAN CORNER / by Jeff Weber, Columnist |
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Hey, mutual funds have found another way to take your money and they have the SEC's blessing. Basically, mutual funds have found a way to take advantage of small investors because they allowed small investors to get cheated by allowing the Big Boys to "time" their buys and sells. Here's the lowdown.
You remember wonderful brokers like Putnam that allowed their managers and other "biggies" to make after market trades before the funds were repriced for the next day? That's called "market timing" and mutual funds are not supposed to allow that. And in any case, they can only permit it if all investors are allowed to do that. Well, Putnam and the others weren't letting everyone do that - just the selected, catered, rich few. So the SEC decided that the way to clean up the market timing scandal was to require a "redemption fee" of 2% for any mutual fund shares sold within 5 days of purchase. This would prevent the Big Boys from making money timing the mutual fund shares and so would stop them because they won't do it if they will lose money.
Well, mutual funds, always looking for new ways to screw investors and make money for themselves really went for this idea energetically. That's why small mutual fund investors are now hearing from their mutual fund companies who are telling them: Better hold into your mutual fund shares after you buy them or you'll have to pay us with fees of up to 2% when you sell your shares! The industry watchdog, Lipper found that over 1,100 mutual funds suddenly added these "redemption fees". Some funds even outdo the SEC by charging the fees not only within the first 5 days, but even if the investor waits 30 days, 90 days. And some even have the nerve to charge a redemption a year after the investor bought the shares - what next, you have to hold the shares until you die??
In the immortal words of Al Franken when confronted with an issue: "How does this affect me, Al Franken", this is how the redemption fees affect Mr. & Mrs. small mutual fund holder. Now, small investors can't respond quickly to changes in the market or their mutual fund going to hell from fraud, bad management, whatever. They are the ones hurt by these fees. The Big Boys can still make more than the 2% fee so they will still do quick in and outs which will hurt the returns of the small investor even more.
And since the Virus "small investor screw syndrome" spreads quickly, the next sluggers to swing at the small investors are 401 (k) firms. Some of the larger 401 (k) firms are also putting limits on how fast participants can move their money around - remember how Enron only allowed the big scum management to trade their shares but didn't allow their employees in their 401 (k) plan trade their Enron shares?? Bankrupted many employees and destroyed their retirement!
The funds adding fees the most are global and small-cap stock funds which can change rapidly in value up AND down! Read this arrogant quote: In January the Oakmark Fund which invests in Blue-Chip type companies and Oakmark Equity & Income Fund, a mid-to-large-stock-and-bond fund, started charging 2% on shares held less than 90 days, the same fee it charges on five other funds. Listen to this unmitigated gall: "We didn't see any evidence of timing in these two funds, but thought it would be prudent to institute redemption fees across all our funds" an Oakmark Family of Funds spokeswoman says. Unsaid part of the same quote: "We thought it would be prudent to charge this 2% because our mutual fund investors will take any crap we hand them and come back begging for more. We expect our employees will like the higher bonuses they will receive in the future from all the money we will collect from the suckers."
Of course, they continually come up with excuses to cheat you like this one. The Vanguard Group imposes the worst fees in the industry - 2% on shares redeemed up to a year after purchase and 1% on shares held less than 4 years! General Motors now charges its 401 kers a 1% fee on redemptions within 30 days of purchase. And I think General Motors plans to extend this idea - if you sell your Buick within two years of buying, they will charge a redemption fee of 2%!!!!!!! AT &T socks their potential retirees 1% to 1 1/2% if they sell holdings in the 401 (k) plan's international funds with 30 - 90 days of buying.
You were only safe in the past because then, mutual fund companies, thought they would lose business to their competitors who didn't charge fees. But now that the SEC has apparently given the green light to screw investors, they all feel safe cheating you again.
Here are three stocks I like this month:
Borland - (Nasdaq: BORL, $9.11)
52 week: High - $12.24 - Low $7.24
Analysts think Borland looks attractive to Mircosoft.
Reebok - (NYSE: RBK, $38.40)
52 week: High - $42.95 - Low $29.50
RBK doesn't pay Tiger Woods $50 million a year! Big pudh into Chinese market - signed up Yao Ming to endorse line of shoes - also possible buyout target.
ATS Medical - (Nasdaq: ATSI, $5.37)
52 week: High - $6.70 - Low $1.88
ATSI new management is raising shareholder spirits. Some analysts see it hitting new highs within a year - gaining on St Jude's 50% share of the mechanical-valve market.
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| INSIDE TRACK: Weekly Insider Report / By Jeff Williams |
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| Jeff Williams is a partner with http://www.insiderreview.com For the past seven years Jeff has done extensive investment research as a member of an institutional investment team. His background consists of a degree in Finance from the University of South Florida with a minor in Economics. Jeff's everyday activities as an insider stock analyst consist of analyzing data available through a multiple of sources as it applies to all publicly traded companies. With this information he can then make short-term and long-term evaluations on a company’s present and future performance based on insider buying patterns. Each month Jeff will share with you his thoughts on stocks he believes to display the most interesting insider buying patterns. |
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Interesting Buy Patterns
Open market insider trading activity for AYI April 2004
Acuity Brands, Inc.
Acuity Brands, Inc. operates in two business segments: lighting equipment and specialty products. The lighting equipment segment, operated through Acuity Lighting Group (ALG), manufactures and distributes a variety of fluorescent and non-fluorescent lighting fixtures for markets throughout North America and other foreign markets, primarily western Europe. The specialty products segment, operated through Acuity Specialty Products Group (ASP), produces and distributes cleaning, maintenance, sanitation and water treatment chemicals and other products for customers throughout the United States, Canada and western Europe. In the fiscal year ended August 31, 2002 (fiscal 2002), the lighting equipment segment generated approximately 75% of total revenues, while the specialty products segment provided the remaining 25%.
Mr. Nagel, 45 years old, has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Corporation since December 2001. Mr. Nagel was a principal with Jepson Associates, Inc., a private investment company, from 1999 until joining the Corporation. He was Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Kuhlman Corporation, a diversified industrial manufacturing, from 1993 to 1999. Mr. Nagel is a Certified Public Accountant (inactive).
Interesting that this is Nagel's first purchase despite the fact that he has been with the company since 2001. Why is he all of a sudden now purchasing $175,000 worth of stock? We believe he sees improving fundamentals/good news on the way. He is the CFO, which means he is involved with the daily operations of the company. He is aware of the revenues and current profit margins. We doubt he would be buying if he saw any trouble ahead. We expect a strong earnings report based on the purchase and upward pressure on the stock price in the coming months.
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Do you have comments, thoughts or opinions on Talking Points that you would like to share? Email them to letters@talking-points.com.
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Weekly Stock Picks From Bob Coppo - New Feature!
Top Stock PickS for Monday, Apr 26, 2004:
JUPM, PCLE
Good Trading!
Bob Coppo is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.
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1. ELX (Emulex Corporation, Computer Storage Devices) $17.48 - Buy. We kick off the week with a familiar blast-from-the past, Emulex. Most of you will remember the shorting scandal that occured with this stock several years ago, making national news that transcended the business pages. We are looking to catch a falling knife here after the stock sold off Friday following earnings that met expectations and fourth quarter that didn't. "Emulex Corporation designs, develops and supplies Fiber Channel host bus adapters (HBAs), application specific computer chips (ASICs) and embedded firmware and software products that enhance access to, and storage of, electronic data and applications. The Company's products are based on internally developed ASIC and embedded firmware and software technology and offer support for a wide variety of storage area network (SAN) protocols, configurations, system interfaces and operating systems." Friday saw a bloodbath as ELX sold off 11% to levels not seen in more than a year. The numbers weren't so bad, but as is tradtion, The Street reacted to the extreme and drove the stock into the land of the deeply oversold on huge volume. Looking at the cause of the bleeding, ELX said it expects adjusted earnings of $0.25 on revenue of $100 million to $103 million for the fourth quarter ending in June while analysts had expected earnings of $0.26 on revenue of $105.4 million. It also reported fiscal third-quarter net earnings of $14.55 million, or $0.17 per share, compared with a loss of $248 million, or $0.00 per share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose to $99 million from $79.6 million a year earlier. The outlook combined with the beating leaves ELX looking extremely attractive to us here, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just over 15 for a leader in its space growing revenue at 20%+. Additionally, we like the heavy short position, more than 8% of available shares as of April 8, with a reversal likely to trigger some covering. With the gap down and the stock dredging new lows, keep in mind that there is nothing in the way of support underneath, and so consider waiting for a reversal to emerge before jumping in. On a turn, we'd look first to the March low of $20.35, with a move above that level opening the door to a run at the 50-day MA of $22+. We view this as an intermediate-term trade. Keep a tight stop in place if you intend to time your entry at the bottom. Short-term price target: $20.35 (16% gain) Stop loss trigger: $16.20 (7% loss)
2. INVX (Innovex Inc., Electronic Instruments and Controls) $5.69 - Buy. Our second play for the coming week is in the form of electronics provider INVX. "Innovex Inc. is a worldwide provider of flexible circuit interconnect solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the electronics industry. It offers a range of customized flexible circuit applications and services from initial design, development and prototype to fabrication, assembly and test on a global basis. The Company targets high-volume markets where miniaturization, form and weight are driving factors and flexible circuits are an enabling technology. Applications for flexible circuits addressed by Innovex include data storage devices such as hard disk drives (HDDs), liquid crystal displays (LCDs) for mobile communication devices, tape drives and arrays, flat-panel displays and printers." The Company's client list features some big names, including 3M, Dell, Hitachi, HP, Maxtor, Medtronic, Philips, Quantum, SAE Magnetics, Samsung, Seagate, Staktek, StorageTek, Xerox and others. On Monday, INVX reported revenue of $39.3 million for the fiscal 2004 second quarter ending March 31, 2004, a 6% increase from the $37.1 million reported for the prior year second quarter. The company's net income was $137,000 or $0.01 per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2004. This compares to a net loss of $1.4 million or $0.09 per share in the prior year second quarter. Looking forward to its June quarter, the company expects revenue between $39 and $43 million and diluted earnings per share between $0.00 to $0.04. In its September quarter, the company anticipates revenue of $45 to $50 million and earnings of $0.05 to $0.10 per diluted share. Following the earnings call, INVX spent the rest of the week trading in a range about $1 off its intraweek high, meandering in the $5.50 range before making a nice move toward the bell to close just $0.03 off its intraday high to close up about 1%. We like the looks of the chart here, with selling volume drying up after Tuesday followed by Friday's emergence of the reversal bar on the OHLC chart. The stochastic and RSI indicators both point to an oversold condition here, and we're looking for a short-term bounce in the least, with a target in the low $6 range, just below the pre-earnings level. Looking at the fundamentals, the price-to-book ratio of right around even and the price-to-sales number of 0.65 are both quite appealing here, as is the year-to-year revenue growth and positive managemnet numbers. Short-term price target: $4.10 (13% gain) Stop loss trigger (if bought at current price): $3.40 (6% loss)
As always, do your own research before buying or selling any security. Our recommendations are for informational purposes only and are only our opinions. Make sure to read our Disclaimer
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and click on the "Past Issues" menu item.
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1. We are not brokers, investment advisors, or securities dealers. Our newsletter is provided as our personal opinions and are for informational purposes only.
2. Information on our website may contain "forward looking statements" as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
3. Always research your own investments, and consult your investment advisor before investing.
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5. Understand that we at Talking-Points.com may buy stock in the companies that we recommend in our newsletter, and may sell those shares after recommending them.
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The stocks profiled on Talking-Points.com are only the opinions of Talking-Points.com and its representatives. These opinions are based on our research, which may be extensive or limited, done on each individual stock. Our sources include, but are not limited to, online research, company profiles, member suggestions, past performance, magazines, newspapers, analyst suggestions, broker recommendations, contact with the company, company rumors, and other similar information sources. All opinions are based on information that is accessible by the public.
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