June 27, 2004


Issue #123

Greg Fry
   Greg Fry

Latest Updates:

No new updates this week.

Thanks again for subscribing to Talking Points Premium Edition!



Back to top

Regain Financial Control! No fees, no obligation consultation.

Please visit the site of this week's sponsor by clicking on the banner above.

If you are interested in placing an ad in Talking Points, or are interested in receiving information about ad rates, please send your inquiry to advertise@talking-points.com.

WEEK ON WALL STREET: Week In Review  /   by Bob Coppo

Back to top

Our new Week on Wall Street columnist is Bob Coppo. Bob is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

Bob Coppo
Week on Wall Street
The Week on Wall Street

Friday's Action:   Stocks finished mixed Friday as traders digested a mixed batch of economic data. One report showed the economy growing at an unexpectedly slow pace, while others provided encouraging numbers on home sales and consumer sentiment. Major world markets posted mostly lower results on Friday. London's FTSE closed down 0.20%; Frankfurt's DAX closed up 0.16%, and Paris' CAC 40 finished lower by 0.36%. Japan's Nikkei closed up 0.31%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 0.18%, and Sydney's All Ordinaries finished lower by 0.05%. In economic news, GDP (final) for the 1st qtr was revised to 3.9% from 4.4%, with the Chain Deflator up 2.9% from 2.6%. Consumer Sentiment (final) for June was revised to 95.6 from 95.2, while Existing Home Sales in May rose 2.6% to 6.8 mil units. Volume came in at 1.82 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 2.67 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was mixed, with NYSE advancing issues over declining issues by 1.22, and down volume over up volume by 112; Nasdaq advancing issues over declining issues by 1.41, and up volume over down volume by 1.91. Leading sectors were Networkers, +1.59%. Disk Drives, +1.43% and Oil Services +1.14%. Laggards were Pharmaceuticals, -1.79%, Integrated Oils, -0.81% and Banks, -0.79%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 12 pts higher to settle at 1505.50, while the S&P's settled down 6.10 pts at 1135.20.

Weekly Recap:   Investors continued to mark time ahead to next week's FOMC meeting, the restoration of sovereignty to Iraq, and the June employment report. There was some buying interest, however, based on a number of favorable earnings reports and renewed interest in the influential semiconductor sector, which drove the SOX up 5.7%. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000, which are heavily weighted with technology stocks, rallied 1.9 to 3.0% respectively. The Russell indexes experienced a late surge of buying on Friday based on a re-balancing that was finalized after Friday's close.

Besides the SOX, the Broker/Dealer Index gained approximately 3.0% and regional banks got a boost from take over speculation that followed Monday's announcement from Wachovia that it would be acquiring SouthTrust for $14.3 bln. The energy, steel, diversified metals, aluminum, home building, biotech, gold, building materials, and transportation groups were some of the other standouts.

Laggards included retailers, consumer staples and drugs. Wal-Mart fell 4.7% on a judge's ruling that a sex discrimination suit against the company could move forward as a class action. AT&T dropped 9.3% after lowering its FY04 revenue outlook due to ongoing pricing pressure, recent changes in FCC policies, and new product initiatives. Their losses paled in comparison to Career Education Corp, which sank 20% on announcement that it received a formal order of investigation from the SEC. That news cast a pall on the entire post-secondary education group with peer companies like Corinthian Colleges and Apollo Group dropping 8.1% and 7.9%, respectively.

For the week, the Dow lost -0.4%, the S&P 500 finished -0.1% lower and the Nasdaq rose +1.9%. The small cap Russell 2000 gained +3.0%. Next week, we get the FOMC announcement on interest rates and the handover in Iraq on Wednesday. Wednesday is also the end of the second quarter when fund managers will attempt to spruce up their portfolios. Friday has the June jobs report and the start of the long 4th of July weekend.

The Effects of the Current Account Deficit:   Last week, the US trade balance came in at a new record all-time deficit. The chart below shows that the decline in the US Dollar over the past 2 1/2 years has yet to reverse the plunge of the US quarterly current account deficit. The question raging between the bulls and the bears is whether or not the US financial markets will be able to continue to attract enough new investment each quarter to offset the imbalance in trade. If not, then the US financial markets and the US economy could face some very serious challenges.

Well, if the 2-yr note auction held last Wednesday is any reflection of foreign appetite for US treasuries, the bulls have little to worry about, at least for the time being. While the yield was somewhat lower than expected and the bid/cover was adequate at 2:17:1, the real significance of the auction was in the fact that a record 61% of the competitive bid awards went to what the bond traders call "indirect bidders", or foreign buyers. This was well above the 42% taken by "indirects" at the May auction and far above the one-year moving average of 39%. Foreign demand for US treasuries remains high and is apparently on the rise.

Using Options to Generate Cash Flow:   Is it possible to achieve a steady cash flow stream trading options? The answer, we believe, is a resounding yes. Most people who trade options lose money, sometimes lots of money. The reason is that most of the time they are guessing which way the market or a stock will go. And because options are "wasting assets", if they guess wrong, they can end up losing their entire stake. But there are two proven strategies that consistently generate cash using options month after month after month.

The first strategy is our Peak Open Interest Indicator (POI). The POI has predicted where the S&P 100 Index (OEX) will close on options expiration day with a high degree of accuracy. The OEX tends to be attracted to price levels where the largest amount of open interest exists. The indicator is simply a chart showing the amount of call and put options open at each strike price in any given expiration month. Typically, a stock or index will be attracted to the strike price that has the most combined open options contracts for the front month, or the month closest to expiring. What makes this indicator particularly useful for the OEX is its low implied options volatility index. Below is a table of the previous 14 months of data displaying this phenomenon. Notice that the OEX has never closed more than 1.58% away from the POI on expiration day.

Expire "Target" "Actual" Pt Diff % Diff
18-Apr-03 450.00 453.72 +3.72 +0.83%
16-May-03 480.00 475.72 -4.28 -0.89%
20-Jun-03 500.00 502.40 +2.40 +0.48%
18-Jul-03 500.00 501.50 +1.50 +0.30%
15-Aug-03 500.00 498.30 -1.70 -0.34%
19-Sep-03 520.00 520.62 +0.62 0.12%
17-Oct-03 520.00 518.12 -1.88 -0.36%
21-Nov-03 520.00 511.78 -8.22 -1.58%
19-Dec-03 540.00 540.26 +0.26 +0.05%
16-Jan-04 560.00 564.72 +4.72 +0.84%
20-Feb-04 570.00 564.88 -5.12 -0.90%
19-Mar-04 550.00 543.68 -6.32 -1.15%
16-Apr-04 560.00 554.94 -5.06 -0.90%
21-May-04 550.00 554.80 +4.80 +0.87%

We use the POI to set up OEX credit spreads during the last week before expiration. By knowing where the OEX has a high probability of closing at expiration, we can put on either a bullish put spread or a bearish call spread so that our options expire worthless. Typically, we will receive a $1.00 credit for a $5.00 spread, or a 20% return on capital. We've never had a losing trade and this set-up occurs every month.

The second strategy is called the Premium Collapse Indicator (PCI). The PCI finds set-ups where the option premium has a high probability of declining rapidly. When a set-up is triggered, we establish a credit spread to take advantage of the rapid premium decay. In back-testing, this strategy had 12 winning trades with no losers. Trading the OEX, we typically receive a $1.00 credit for a $5.00 spread, or a 20% return on capital. The PCI trades are never executed during the last week before expiration, so they do not conflict with our Peak Open Interest trades.

The POI and PCI strategies give us at least one, and most times, two opportunities each month the earn on average a 20% return per trade. If you would like to receive timely updates on these strategies, just send an email to info@stockmarkettimer.com and ask to be put on our distribution list. There is no cost or obligation.

The COT Report:   The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers bought some 7,700 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -7,620 contracts. Large Traders remained net short -27,431 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +35,051 contracts held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold some 21,200 contracts to bring their net long position to +2,984 contracts. Small Traders were net short -639 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money buy some 1,400 contracts to bring their net long position to +7,056 contracts.

Commercial Hedgers were better buyers in the S&P's last week, while Small Traders were better sellers. That's a bullish sign for the short term. For the intermediate term, their opposing net positions should still be considered bearish.

Sentiment Surveys:   The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed that the percentage of bullish newsletter writers came in at 54.6%, while the percentage of bears was 18.6%. The bullish ratio (bulls/bulls +bears) was 74.6%.

The latest AAII survey showed an increase to 56% bulls, and an decrease to 23% bears. The bullish ratio came in at 71%, while the 4-week moving average remains high at 66%. One thing to note about the AAII survey is that, while membership in this organization is quite large as investor groups go, the number of members that actually participate in the survey is very small. Thus, large fluctuations in survey results from week to week are not uncommon.

The latest Market Vane survey came in at 66%, indicating that the majority of commodity trading advisors (CTA's) remain bullish on the future direction of the S&P's.

The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days:   Friday's price action was mixed, so we don't have a clear directional bias for Monday. Friday's action was skewed by the re-balancing of the Russell indexes. The Russell 1000, 2000 and 3000 re-balancing went into effect at the end of Friday's trading session. Names added include TFSM, NILE, ORBZ, MCHX. Deletions included TSCM, EELN, and ROXI. Since the names added and deleted were four letter symbols, it's not too surprising that the Nasdaq faired better than the Dow and the SPX. One way to view what's happening beneath the surface is to look at smoothed charts of the market internals. The charts below of the advance-decline line and new highs-new lows are 10-day moving averages of the underlying data. Smoothing the data helps to see more clearly the prevailing trend(s). Notice that, while the trends shown on the smoothed charts are up, the strength of the trends is anything but robust. Which raises the question, is the up-trend running out of steam? We should know much more by mid-next week.

SMT's Pivot Point Forecast; 1-2 Weeks:   Our Pivot Point RS indicator is currently on a BUY signal. Our next Pivot Point is forecast to occur on or near July 2nd.

The 60-mn NDX chart below shows that the StochRSI indicator is in the BUY zone. For Monday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 1105.50 and then 1123. Support lies at 1084 and then 1078. For the Naz, resistance comes in at 1420 and then 1442. Support lies at 1390 and then 1383.

The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks:   Over the past couple of years, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has tended to either lead or validate the US equity markets at important turning points. The Nikkei put in a bottom on May 17th and has been in rally mode ever since. Last week, the index closed above it's 50-day moving average for the first time since the end of April. Japan's Tankan index of service industries released on Thursday rose 2.2%, well above the consensus estimate of 1.6%. Japan's economy appears to finally be in turn-around mode, and that's positive sign for global equity markets, including the US.

Our Market Trend Indicator (MTI) is currently positive and trended higher again on Friday.

Good Trading!

Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:

LAST WEEK'S PICKS: Pushing Higher

Back to top

Last week's Fresh Picks picked up a solid average gain of 6.5% on the week, outperforming the markets.

The week's profits were led by the performance of digital imaging play LEXR, which blew threw our target price for a 12% gain. Our second pick of the week, BEAS, moved sideways most of the week to close with a 1% gain over the five sessions.

With the handover of power in Iraq, it will be interesting to see how the markets respond early this week, with higher-than-normal volatility likely.

Make sure to also have a look at the Track Record page on the site for our 2003 monthly breakdown showing each and every Fresh Pick from the year, along with its price when recommended and where it ended the year. For specific targets and stops, please see the archives.

Have you traded any of our recommended plays along the way? We'd love to hear from you and how you did. Please send your stories to comments@talkingpoints.com.

TECH WATCH: Challenges and Changes for Next Generation Internet / by Jeff Neal, Technical Market Columnist

Back to top

Jeff Neal is a veteran options strategist and trader with over a decade of experience in the trading business. Jeff has had a diversified business career operating a very successful management consulting business with his clients representing some of the largest companies in the world.

He has a B.S. in Computer Science from Indiana University and an MBA in Finance from the University of Indianapolis. Jeff is a writer, mentor, and options strategist for Optionetics (http://www.optionetics.com/) and as head of his own hedge fund is an active options trader in both the equity and futures markets.

Jeff Neal - Staff Writer & Options Strategist - Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

Jeff Neal
Tech Watch

Challenges and Changes for Next Generation Internet

By Jeff Neal

Many technology leaders in the Internet space recently came together at a high-tech summit in San Francisco to reveal their vision of the future. Their thoughts ranged from the large obstacles that face the Internet to the major transformation that is expected to take place. They also commented on the possibility of another Internet explosion.

One of the first things that was being discussed is that how the Internet will be more and more part of the average American’s home life leading to another Internet boom. By reaching the average household, Internet experts assert that this will open up a whole new array of applications such as gaming, video, health care and education.

The big explosion is anticipated to take place in voice and video over Internet protocol networks versus the traditional switch line networks. The beauty to the consumer is that they will now have tremendous flexibility with the ability to choose from more than 9,000 plus channels of television programming.

Another reason cited for future Internet growth is the number of kids that are now using it. Many 10-year olds and up increasingly use the Internet to watch movies, play games, listen to music and talk to their friends. The mindset is being developed at a very early age that the Internet will be available everywhere they go for the rest of their lives. Industry experts conclude that this type of thinking should keep the Internet growing for many years to come

In addition to increased applications, the way we search on the Internet is expected to go through a major transformation by adding localization coupled with social networking. The problem of getting to much information from a search should soon be addressed with new visualization tools. This type of software will arrange information in graphical form making it much easier for the user to sort it all out. Also, the whole concept of the localizing the Internet has extensive ramifications in the field of education.

The amount of business actually being conducted over the Internet keeps increasing at a torrid pace. One of the reasons business has taken off is due to the fact that over the last five years there has been about a 10 times reduction in price in a lot of components that go into building the Internet as well as services on the Internet. These components include such things as software, servers and networking equipment.

The economics of doing business over the Internet simply makes sense. Consider that if one wants to launch an Internet site or business it will cost about a tenth of what it would of cost five years ago. In addition you will have ten times more customers you can address as well as ten times more advertising revenue.

However, even with this bright growth future being projected for the Internet it still has its share of challenges. The main issues are better encryption techniques that need to be developed along with the continuing problem of spam. It is absolutely essential that information over the Internet be protected better. Once people are 100 percent assured that their information is fully protected then usage should increase dramatically.

Of course the other drawback for the Internet user is the overwhelming spam that is currently out there. This seems to be a bigger challenge than solving the encryption problem since this is how many of the viruses evolves. Also, the amount of bogus and unethical business being conducted through spam techniques has proliferated. In addition, it makes the usage of e-mail unbearable for many users.

The future of the Internet does offer a lot of promise and as the infrastructure technology continues to evolve we definitely might see another huge growth spurt. However, it is paramount that the privacy and spam concerns be addressed effectively if we are indeed going to experience this new expansion cycle.

Happy Trading.

MARKET TA: Riding the Waves / by Dale Woodson, Technical Market Columnist

Back to top

Dale Woodson is the editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

We encourage our subscribers to visit his site at http://www.woodsonwave.com and please see Dale's complete bio following his column.

Dale Woodson

Dale Woodson
Market TA columnist

TIMER DIGEST’S (P.O. BOX 1688, Greenwich, CT. 06836/ 203-629-3503)

















Year 2012



1932 or 1942


Year 2012*



12/6/74 or 8/12/82


Year 2012





.618 = 5803





Complete @ 8062 on 9/21/01





Complete @ 10,673 on 3/19/02





Complete @ 7197 on 10/10/02





Topping, high 10,753 on 2/19/04





 .500 = 6865/ .618 = 5803





Year 2012

* "…it should terminate about the year 2012"

* "...not expected to terminate until about 2012"

R. N. Elliott, Educational Bulletin O

R.N. Elliott, Interpretive Letter No. 17

October 26, 1942.



August 25, 1941.

Primary degree wave 2 down (1987 - 1990) running flat correction.

Primary degree wave 3 up (1990 - 1999)



Primary degree wave 4 down (8/24/99 -?)





In our blueprint for wave (E) down in the May 10 report, we had proposed an ideal wave structure that labeled this third wave as complete today, May 18, 2004. Wave one came to completion a fibonacci 34 days after the wave (D) high on 3/24/04. A fibonacci 89 days from that high marks today, May 18, 2004. As I write this at midday, the market appears stuck in a fourth wave, which upon completion, will yield to wave five down. The end of this third wave is near and should come to completion within the next day or so.

The May 13 email alert noted that the Dow had just completed wave iii of v of 3 down. The chart above illustrates that point. Of course, third waves are always followed by fourth waves. Note that the fourth wave high should hold below the previous first wave low. In this case, that mark is 10,285. The fibonacci retracement levels for this fourth wave remain as stated in the May 13 email alert at 10,055 and 10,180.

At a minimum, the wave v of 3 should break below the 9853 low of wave iii for completion. Wave 3 will gain equality with wave 1 at Dow 9788 and this third wave will gain a fibonacci 1.1618 ratio to wave one at Dow 9326.

Dale Woodson is editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

Timer Digest rates Woodson Wave Report as the #5 stock market timer and #5 bond market timer for the three-year period from 12/31/98 through 12/31/2001. Woodson broke into the top ten rated stock market timers by placing #7 in the year 2000. He followed that up with a #4 rating for the year in 2001. These ratings were achieved during a period when market timing was extremely difficult as the bull market was turning over to bear and most were caught off guard.

While there is no feeling like catching a turn on the dime, Dale especially enjoys writing the newsletter. He is most proud of the numerous correspondences complimenting him on his writing abilities. He has a real passion for his work. He knows that the market will move in certain Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci sequences. His challenge is to identify those patterns and sequences in advance, while there is still time to profit from them.

Woodson Wave Report offers monthly, quarterly and yearly subscriptions. Newsletters are delivered via email and URL links and are published on the first Friday of every month. Special interim reports are released as market conditions warrant and targets are achieved. All new annual subscribers receive two months free.

You can subscribe to Woodson Wave Report via the secure online order form link below: http://www.woodsonwave.com/orderform.html

Disclaimer: The Woodson Wave Report combines Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci ratios to identify turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 cash, bond and gold markets with respect to both price and time. The monthly newsletter is generally released on the first Friday of the month and special interim reports are issued as market conditions warrant and as targets are achieved. The information contained in the report is prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be taken as an offer to buy or sell any investment vehicle. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Woodson Wave Report is waived of any liabilities.

GOLD RUSH: Golden 400/ by John Dowdee, Ph.D., Gold Editor

Back to top

Golden 400

Last Thursday the dollar sprinted above its 200 day moving average and it looked like the greenback was off to the races. But the 50 day moving average (just above 90) proved to be formidable resistance and slapped the dollar hard, causing it to plunge all the way back to 88.62, the low for the week. This collapse of the dollar was all gold needed to blast above the psychologically important $400 level. What may be even more important is that on Friday, gold consolidated above $400 and closed the week at $403.20. Thus, our prediction that the yellow metal would surpass $400 proved to be correct and happen even faster than I had expected.

Gold stocks, as measured by the XAU index, mirrored the rise in the precious metal. The XAU gapped higher on Thursday, reaching a weekly high of 89.39 before closing at 88.42. The gap between 86.80 and 87.99 now provides support. Stocks however are much weaker than the metal. The last time gold bounded through $400 (early December 2003) the XAU was sitting at 112, over 20% higher than today. So either gold stocks are undervalued and will catch up with bullion or the metal is overvalued and the bull will falter in the next few weeks. The key levels are $393 for gold and 86.80 for the XAU. As long as these levels are maintained, the bull is healthy. However, if gold falls below $393 or the XAU falls below 86.80, it will not bode well for continuation of the bull market (at least in the near term).

Last week I noted that I had begun accumulating gold stocks. For short term trades, I have tightened stops in concert with the pivotal levels discussed above. For my “buy and hold” core gold portfolio, I believe the gold mutual funds are a good investment vehicle. I currently have US World Gold (UNWPX), primarily a small cap fund, and American Century Global Gold (BGEIX), a fund that tends to hold the large blue chip names. Some of the major holdings of UNWPX include Wheaton River (WHT), Placer Dome (PDG), and Bema Gold (BGO). For BGEIX, the holdings include Barrick (ABX), Newmont (NEM), and Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold (FCX). For readers of this column, these names should be familiar since they are among my favorite stocks for trading.

Over the long term, I am still a gold bug and believe gold will sell for over $1000 an ounce by the end of the decade. However, the ride will not be smooth and the potential rewards will often be offset by the agony of losses. As always, we advise you to never depend on anyone else’s opinion. You should do your own due diligence and evaluate your risk tolerance before making decisions to buy (or sell) any stocks or funds. Best of luck!

MR. SWING'S PLACE: Weekly Swing Trading Ideas / by Larry Swing

Back to top

Each week, Mr. Swing analyzes his database of more than 9,200 securities to scan for swing trading opportunities. But be warned: Do not expect a fast way to make money. Mr. Swing is going to show you how you can accumulate small gains weekly, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach. While he realizes that this short-term swingtrading approach is not for everyone, he hopes that the information given at MrSWING.com will be useful to you in the near future...

These are your Swing Trading Opportunities for this week:

Talking Points member - Over the nearly two years that we have carried the Mr. Swing's Place column, Larry's picks have consistently put in great performances. Don't miss out on the full swing-trading content available at Mr. Swing.com. Take advantage of some of the great programs available by clicking here.

Long Swings:


^ click here
F,Ford Motor
FHCC,First Health Group
CVX,ChevronTexaco Corp
CCE,Coca-Cola Enterprises
FLE,Fleetwood Enterpr


Short Swings:


^ click here
ATVI,Activision Inc
FLEX,Flextronics Intl
FMT,Fremont Genl
UVN,Univision CommunicA
UNH,UnitedHealth Group

^ click here
LZB,La-Z Boy
RTN,Raytheon Co
PLB,Amer ItalianPastaA

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5
^ click here
TSM,Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg ADS
AUO,AU Optronics ADS
SSTI,Silicon Storage Tech
NDN,99(Cents) Only Stores

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5
^ click here
AVP,Avon Products
LZB,La-Z Boy
MTLM,Metal Management
CCE,Coca-Cola Enterprises
FDS,FactSet Research Systems

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1 and HIGH1< HIGH2

^ click here
SYMC,Symantec Corp
FMT,Fremont Genl
UNH,UnitedHealth Group
ADBE,Adobe Systems
NDN,99(Cents) Only Stores

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH> HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2

^ click here
FHCC,First Health Group
RTN,Raytheon Co
XEL,Xcel Energy
HOT,Starwood Hotels&ResWorldwide
NCF,Natl Commerce Finl


^ click here
SYMC,Symantec Corp
AEOS,Amer Eagle Outfitters
LOW,Lowes Cos
SINA,Sina Corp


^ click here
LUV,Southwest Airlines
A,Agilent Technologies
AAI,AirTran Hldgs
CVD,Covance Inc
CPB,Campbell Soup

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >= 0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE > SMAC50
^ click here
ABT,Abbott Laboratories
GIS,Genl Mills

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1) >= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC50
^ click here
FHCC,First Health Group
MTLM,Metal Management

^ click here
BJ,BJs Wholesale Club

^ click here
GPS,Gap Inc
GM,Genl Motors
SEPR,Sepracor Inc
PLCM,Polycom Inc
LXK,Lexmark IntlA

^ click here
NWS,News Corp Ltd ADS

^ click here
LUV,Southwest Airlines
SY,Sybase Inc
AAI,AirTran Hldgs
CVD,Covance Inc

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW )
^ click here
PFE,Pfizer, Inc
ELX,Emulex Corp
REY,Reynolds & ReynoldsA
EVC,Entravision CommunicA

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW)
^ click here

AINV,Apollo Investment
CYPB,Cypress Bioscience
HAYZ,Hayes Lemmerz Intl
ARB,Arbitron Inc
XIDE,Exide Technologies

^ click here
ANDW,Andrew Corp
WWCA,Western WirelessA
ARG,Airgas Inc
CACS,Carrier Access


REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

AIG (Long) - Chart of the Week
Larry Swing



AIG trades at very reasonable multiples; the forward P/E ratio is 13.9, and the forward P/EG ratio is .925.  Considering the company’s great business stability, these multiples are low.


It is the technical picture, however, not the fundamentals, that truly make AIG an attractive buy candidate:


Following an extraordinarily strong uptrend, the stock consolidated for several months between 68 and 78.  Recently, the stock retreated within this consolidation range to 68.73, then rallied to 75, and finally fell back to 71.10.  The most recent fall back to near support has resulted in a stochastic buy signal, and an unusual and short-term divergence with the NASDAQ.  This in and of itself is a great buy signal.  However, on Friday, the stock also traded with extremely high volume as prices rallied slightly.  This suggests that buying pressure is building, and that the divergence is likely to be soon repaired.




Key Levels:


Buy:  Market


Stop Loss:  70.97, below the most recent low.


Target:  76.97, below the highs.



Mr.Swing DISCLAIMER: Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MRSWING.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the strategies described above. © Copyright 2002, MrSwing.com. All rights reserved. COPYING AND OR ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF THIS DOCUMENT WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONSENT OF MRSWING.COM IS A VIOLATION OF THE COPYRIGHT LAW.

THE TRADER'S MINDSET: The Day Trader's "Edge" / by Bennett McDowell, Columnist

Back to top

Founder and President of TradersCoach.com, Bennett started his financial career on Wall Street with the firm J.J. Kenny Co. in 1984 after serving as an officer in the U.S. Navy. Bennett also served as a Retirement Plan Specialist with the Equitable in New York and has investment real estate experience as well. In addition, his 1979 Economics BA degree from Syracuse University in upstate New York gave him a foundation on which he was able to build a solid background in Finance.

Bennett has extensive experience in trading the financial markets and is currently an active trader including day trading the financial futures markets. He also coaches many traders through his company TradersCoach.com.

Considered an expert in technical analysis and complex computer trading platforms and applications, Bennett has educated and helped traders worldwide improve their trading. Bennett is well known for helping traders overcome sabotaging psychological issues that keep them from reaching their full potential. In addition to his educational and coaching abilities, Bennett, a registered securities broker, manages money and trades for clients throughout the United States.

Bennett released his home study course Applied Reality Trading, also known as "ART" in January 2002. His cutting-edge course teaches traders his state of the art Pyramid Trading Points, Money management, and developing the "Trader's Mindset." Bennett is also known for developing The Trader's Assistant - a premier trade-posting record-keeping system for traders, as well as writing and publishing The Survival Guide For Traders, a book on how to set up and organize your trading business.

Bennett provides private consultation/coaching services to many traders throughout the world by telephone, video conferencing, and in person. Working with Bennett, traders spend time focusing on trading system development, trading psychology, and disciplined money management.


The Trader's Mindset Columnist
The Day Trader’s “Edge”

In this article, we will discuss “Day Trading” and developing your trading “edge”. Exactly what is it, how to do it, and why it is so tough.

“Day Trading” in it's truest since means to only trade during the day and close out all your open trades by the time the market closes.  So, when you finish trading for the day, your trading account is "flat" and is "all cash" meaning no positions are being held over night.  This is “Day Trading” in the purest since.  There are many shades of gray in defining “Day Trading.”  Some traders use 30 minute charts and hold positions overnight and call this “Day Trading” because they are using an intraday chart to base their trading decisions.   Thus, they consider themselves “Day Traders.”  I actually would consider them short term position traders or even perhaps overnight "Swing" traders.  So, for our discussion here, let's use the purist definition for “Day Trading,” we do not hold positions overnight.

To be successful in trading regardless of the time frame, you must have an “edge”, and once you have it, stick with it to be a consistent winner.  As a “Day Trader” you must decide on how you are going to trade, what is your “edge”.  Are you going to trade intraday trends or are you going to scalp?  Deciding how you are going to trade will depend on your personality and beliefs about trading.

But realize when trading on such a short time frame of say one minute, 5 minute, or even 10 minute time frames, “Day Trading” takes a lot of energy, and can be emotionally draining.  Some days after I “Day Trade,” I feel like I just played an intense tennis matches or a game of intense golf.  And “Day Trading” is much like competing in sports!   Because in “Day Trading,” you are definitely competing against other traders during the day.  It is not buy and hold where an investor depends on the fundamentals to make money.  It is a game where you play to win, just like in athletics!  “Day Trading” surely is a zero sum game meaning that for every winner there is a loser. Top athletes practice, practice, and practice until they perfect their skill. Much like these top athletes, traders need to practice, practice, and practice to become top traders. Traders should practice their trading through “paper trading” until they are consistently profitable. “Paper trading” is a great way to perfect your trading skills without risking your hard earned trading capital.

Many good “Day Traders” in fact are athletes, but athletes like Tennis Players, Golfers, and sports where individual competition vs. team playing are emphasized.  Why is this?  Because individual athletes that place winning solely on their shoulders can candle the stress of Day Trading where winning is also squarely on the trader's shoulders.  There is a difference from that of a team player who relies on the whole team to win.  Individual athletes have developed a tough mindset that performs well under pressure.

Good “Day Traders” do not look for "holy grail" trading system!  Instead they focus on their “edge” just like an athlete focuses on their “edge” in sports.  A tennis player with an excellent back hand relies on that back hand to win.  A trader with an excellent trade set up relies on that set up to win.  Once you have your "secret" edge, the hard work of staying out of the market until the proper time and controlling your emotions while trading is key.  You must be disciplined in not being sucked into a trade based on the markets seductive environment.  Only trade when your “edge” says too! 

Like an athlete, a trader will have both good days and bad days.  On the bad days, it is usually because you head is really not in the game of trading or you are tired, or have other stuff on your mind.  Just like when you have a bad game of tennis or golf, it usually is because you head was just not in the game that day.  It is not because you need some additional skill or a new trading system!  This of course is assuming your trading is generally consistently profitable and you just had a bad day.  The best thing to do if you do not feel like trading is don’t trade that day or week.  Instead take time off, and when you’re ready get back in the game.  You will feel refreshed and ready to win!

That is your goal in trading, find your edge, and align that edge with your personality for a winning game!

Bennett McDowell, President
Free Video – Trading The Perfect Business!
10755-F Scripps Poway Parkway, #477
San Diego, CA. 92131

Copyrighted © 2003 TradersCoach.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

CONTRARIAN CORNER / by Jeff Weber, Columnist

Back to top

As a leading contrary investing expert, Jeff has written own investing book, I Guarantee You Will Buy Low Sell High and Make Money, which shows you when to buy and sell the stocks he recommends in his book. You can order the book by clicking on the title and it comes with a free one-year subscription to his newsletter, one month of coaching articles, and one year free email support.

Jeff Weber of JJJ Investing Services
Jeff Weber
Jeff Weber
Contrarian Columnist

Contrarian Corner will return next week

INSIDE TRACK: Weekly Insider Report / By Jeff Williams

Back to top

Jeff Williams is a partner with http://www.insiderreview.com For the past seven years Jeff has done extensive investment research as a member of an institutional investment team. His background consists of a degree in Finance from the University of South Florida with a minor in Economics. Jeff's everyday activities as an insider stock analyst consist of analyzing data available through a multiple of sources as it applies to all publicly traded companies. With this information he can then make short-term and long-term evaluations on a company’s present and future performance based on insider buying patterns. Each month Jeff will share with you his thoughts on stocks he believes to display the most interesting insider buying patterns.

Jeff Williams
Inside Track Columnist

Open market insider trading activity for IDGR June 2004

Industrial Distribution Group, Inc.

Industrial Distribution Group, Inc. (IDGR) is a nationwide supplier of maintenance, repair, operating, and production (MROP) products and services to manufacturers and other industrial users. The Company provides value-added services and other arrangements, including Flexible Procurement Solutions, such as storeroom management. IDGR specializes in cutting tools, abrasives, hand and power tools, coolants, lubricants, adhesives, safety products, and machine tools, supplying virtually any other MROP product that a customer may require. The Company's operations are organized into four regional divisions. IDGR has sales coverage in 43 of the top 75 manufacturing markets in the United States and has an active presence in Mexico and China. IDGR has approximately 20,000 active customers (customers that purchased at least one item in the last 12 months), including General Electric Company, Borg-Warner Inc., Ford Motor Company, Duracell Corporation and The Boeing Company.

Mr. Lingenfelter was named President of the Southern region in January 2002. Prior to that time, Mr. Lingenfelter served as President of the IDG-Charlotte business unit (from January 2001) and as President of The Distribution Group, Inc. (from 1997), one of the companies that combined to form us in 1997 and with whom he had been an executive since 1988. Prior to 1988, Mr. Lingenfelter served Ingersoll-Rand Company, including as Vice President of Sales and Marketing for its Tools Group. Mr. Lingenfelter received his undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Indiana Institute of Technology.

We are impressed, in particular, with this large purchase by Lingenfelter. Lingenfelter last bought in August 2002.  Why has he waited almost two years to make another purchase?  It is also important to not the the stock has been performing well recently.  Looking at the chart, IDGR has been in a steady up-trend for some months.  There has been a recent pull back and insiders seem to have bought into this dip.  This large purchase by Lingenfelter along with the buying by other insiders, including the CFO, is very encouraging in our opinion.  We expect more good news from the company and a higher stock price in the coming months.

From our Readers:

Back to top

Do you have comments, thoughts or opinions on Talking Points that you would like to share? Email them to letters@talking-points.com.

FRESH PICKS: On the Prowl

Back to top

Weekly Stock Picks From Bob Coppo - New Feature!  

Top Stock Picks for Monday, June 28th, 2004:

Bob Coppo is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

As the week ahead is clouded with uncertainty following the exchange of power in Iraq, we thought it a great time to point out a number of stocks we're watching in the exciting FTTP space. For those of you not familiar with this telcom technology, you will likely be hearing a tremendous amount about it throughout the remainder of 2004 and beyond.

FTTP, or "Fiber-To-The-Premesis," is, quite simply, the future of broadband. This is no understatement. To put FTTP in perspective, consider this - your DSL connection is going to look like a 2400 baud modem from the early 80's in a short time, with FTTP delivering infinitely upgradable speeds beginning at somewhere in the neighborhood of 622 Mbps, or around 1,000x the speed you're now achieving with DSL.

Below, we've highlighted a number of stocks to watch that are involved in FTTP. At the very least, load these into your long-term watchlist:

Symbol Current Price 52-week high/low Short-term Target
GLW $12.71 $7.15 / $13.89 $14.50
VZ $35.77 $31.10 / $40.25 $40.00
EXFO $4.86 $2.55 / $7.20 $6.00
SBC $23.80 $21.16 / $27.73 $24.90
BLS $25.16 $23.15 / $31.00 $27.50
AVNX $3.83 $2.55 / $7.57 $4.25
JNPR $23.89 $12.10 / $31.25 $26.50
LU $3.80 $1.59 / $5.00 $4.15
JDSU $3.82 $2.60 / $5.88 $4.10

As always, do your own research before buying or selling any security. Our recommendations are for informational purposes only and are only our opinions. Make sure to read our Disclaimer

List Maintenance:

Back to top

Online issues can be found at
and click on the "Past Issues" menu item.


Back to top

1. We are not brokers, investment advisors, or securities dealers. Our newsletter is provided as our personal opinions and are for informational purposes only.

2. Information on our website may contain "forward looking statements" as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

3. Always research your own investments, and consult your investment advisor before investing.

4. Visit the Securities Exchanges Commission website and read about how to avoid internet scams.

5. Understand that we at Talking-Points.com may buy stock in the companies that we recommend in our newsletter, and may sell those shares after recommending them.

6. Small-cap companies, micro-cap companies, penny stocks and/or thinly traded shares are highly risky and volatile investments. You risk losing some or all of the money you invest.

7. We disclose any and all compensations received from companies profiled or mentioned on the site in accordance with the 1933 Securities Act Section 17 (b).

Our Picks

The stocks profiled on Talking-Points.com are only the opinions of Talking-Points.com and its representatives. These opinions are based on our research, which may be extensive or limited, done on each individual stock. Our sources include, but are not limited to, online research, company profiles, member suggestions, past performance, magazines, newspapers, analyst suggestions, broker recommendations, contact with the company, company rumors, and other similar information sources. All opinions are based on information that is accessible by the public.

Risks Involved

Investing in stocks involves risk. You should consult a qualified financial advisor or stock broker before making any decisions to invest. Stocks reviewed on this website or through email are for informational purposes only. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.

Accuracy of Information is not Guaranteed

Talking-Points.com works to verify the accuracy of all information contained on its website but does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Talking-Points.com does not represent itself to be, nor is it a registered investment advisor or stock broker. As advised before, you should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance of stocks profiled on this website is not a guarantee as to future performance. The performance of other members choosing to invest in any stocks profiled on this site may or may not be an indication as to your performance.

Our Positions in the Stocks Mentioned

Talking-Points.com and its representatives reserve the right to buy and sell any stock mentioned on this web site. Talking-Points.com reserves the right to buy or sell any of these profiled stocks before, during and immediately after they are posted to the site. Talking-Points.com is not responsible for any gains or losses incurred do to investing in these opinions.

Our Relationship to You as a Subscriber

Obtaining a subscription to the emailed newsletter does not in any way create any principle-agent relationship between Talking-Points.com and the recipient. Receipt of the recommended stocks, either via email, or directly from our website, is not in any way a recommendation to buy or sell but is just the opinion of StockTalkReport.com and its representatives and should be used for informational purposes only.

Compensation Received if Any

As in compliance with the 1933 Securities Act Sect. 17 (b) any and all compensation received from a company is publicly stated.

Forward Looking Statements

Information presented on the Talking-Points.com web site and supplied through the newsletter may contain "forward looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, goals, assumptions or future events or performance are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward looking statements." Forward looking statements are based on expectations, estimates and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. Forward looking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as "projects", "foresee", "expects'", "will," "anticipates," "estimates," "believes," "understands" or that by statements indicating certain actions "may," "could," or "might" occur.

General Risks, Research and Types of Orders

Short-term trading can be extremely risky. It is highly recommended that when ever making a decision to buy or sell you use limit orders. As with any investment decision, careful research should be done before making any decision to invest. As with any decision to invest it is usually recommended that you use limit orders, especially in fast moving, volatile stocks. You should only invest money that you are willing to lose. We also encourage you to read up on the SEC policies regarding online newsletters. Also before investing online please visit the Securities Exchanges Commission website and read about how to avoid internet scams.

Copyright © 2002-2003, StockTalkReport.com and Talking-Points.com