July 5, 2004


Issue #124

Greg Fry
   Greg Fry

Latest Updates:

No new updates this week.

Thanks again for subscribing to Talking Points Premium Edition!



Back to top

Regain Financial Control! No fees, no obligation consultation.

Please visit the site of this week's sponsor by clicking on the banner above.

If you are interested in placing an ad in Talking Points, or are interested in receiving information about ad rates, please send your inquiry to advertise@talking-points.com.

WEEK ON WALL STREET: Week In Review  /   by Bob Coppo

Back to top

Our new Week on Wall Street columnist is Bob Coppo. Bob is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

Bob Coppo
Week on Wall Street
The Week on Wall Street

Friday's Action:   Stocks retreated Friday as investors digested a weaker-than-expected report on the nation's employment picture in June. Traders were also reluctant to take positions ahead of the Independence Day holiday weekend. Major world markets reported lower results on Friday. London's FTSE closed down 0.39%; Frankfurt's DAX closed down 0.90%, and Paris' CAC 40 finished lower by 0.83%. Japan's Nikkei closed down 1.47%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.57%, and Sydney's All Ordinaries finished lower by 0.07%. In economic news, Non-farm Payrolls in June rose by 112,000 jobs, far fewer than the 250,000 that Street analysts expected. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.6% while Hourly Earnings were up 0.1%. Finally, Factory Orders in May dipped 0.3%, less than expected. Volume came in at 1.08 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.21 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was mixed, with NYSE advancing issues over declining issues by 1.83, and down volume over up volume by 1.59; Nasdaq declining issues over advancing issues by 1.07, and down volume over up volume by 2.51. Leading sectors were Gold Bugs, +2.62%, Homebuilders, +0.56% and Oil Services, +0.37%. Laggards were Semiconductors, -2.08%, Disk Drives, -1.33% and Comp Tech, -1.16%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 6 pts lower to settle at 1488, while the S&P's settled down 0.40 pts at 1125.80.

Weekly Recap:   Last week was one of confusion on the part of investors and the results showed, with all three major averages losing ground. The week began with concerns about the Fed "being behind the curve" and needing to raise rates rapidly, to concerns that the economy was not growing as fast as thought and talk that the Fed may not raise rates this year as much as previously expected. In the end, the Fed did the expected 1/4 pt hike and the market sold off after the fact.

In fairness, some earnings warnings hurt the market late in the week. A number of small semiconductor firms warned on Thursday, driving that sector sharply lower. Being a leading sector, the SOX pulled the overall market down for the day. Earlier in the week, both Wal-Mart and Target lowered their guidance for June same-store sales. A slowdown in June consumer spending was also seen in a soft auto sales report on Thursday. And finally, June non-farm payrolls were less than half the expected gain. It was not a weak number and is consistent with 4% real GDP growth, but it nevertheless raised questions about the strength of economic growth.

For the week, the Dow lost -0.9%, the S&P 500 finished -0.8% lower and the Nasdaq fell -0.9%. The small cap Russell 2000 finished even. Next week should be relatively quite, with many traders likely to extend the three-day weekend. The economic calendar is very light, with ISM Services on Tuesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday and Wholesale Inventories on Friday.

The Revolving Credit Crunch:   The big event last week was the Fed announcing an increase in the fed funds target of 0.25% to 1.25%. It was widely expected, but the Fed also showed no panic towards raising rates rapidly, and noted that "with underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured."

Measured or not, interest rates are going to rise, and that will effect consumer borrowing. The only financial indicator that has been in a steady, unbroken rise over the last 20+ years has been consumer debt, specifically "revolving" debt like credit cards and auto loans. Federal Reserve data shows that in January 1980, total revolving consumer credit was $56 billion. That figure underwent a 14-fold increase by April 2004, to $751 billion. Thats a compound annual increase rate of 11.4%, far outpacing real GDP growth. And even as many lending rates declined sharply during the past three years as the Fed cut interest rates to below the CPI rate of inflation, the average credit card interest rate barely budged. The average assessed rate in 2000 was 14.8%, while in Q1 of 2004 it rate stood at 12.4%.

So what happens to debt bubbles when interest rates start rising? With the Fed raising the discount rate, banks and credit card companies have an excuse to start increasing consumer loan rates, and many have already done so. Obviously, many over-extended consumers are going to feel the crunch. Expect the bankruptcy rate to increase and consumer spending to decrease. And since the US is a consumer-driven economy, those changes canÕt be good news.

Using Options to Generate Income:   Is it possible to achieve a steady cash flow stream trading options? The answer, we believe, is a resounding yes. Most people who trade options lose money, sometimes lots of money. The reason is that most of the time they are guessing which way the market or a stock will go. And because options are "wasting assets", if they guess wrong, they can end up losing their entire stake. But there are two proven strategies that consistently generate cash using options month after month after month.

The Peak Open Interest Indicator (POI) has predicted where the S&P 100 Index (OEX) will close on options expiration day with a high degree of accuracy. The OEX tends to be attracted to price levels where the largest amount of open interest exists. The indicator is simply a chart showing the amount of call and put options open at each strike price in any given expiration month. Typically, a stock or index will be attracted to the strike price that has the most combined open options contracts for the front month, or the month closest to expiring. What makes this indicator particularly useful for the OEX is its low implied options volatility index.

A review of some previous months' options activity illustrates how the indicator functions. February's expiration saw the OEX close at 564.88, only -0.90% from peak open interest at the 570 strike level. In March, the 550 strike held the most open interest. The OEX was once again attracted to that strike level, this time closing at 543.88, or just -1.15% away. In fact, over the past 15 months, only twice (November 2003, and March 2004) did the OEX close more than one percent away from its peak strike price on expiration day. Below is a table of the previous 15 months of data displaying this phenomenon.

Expire "Target" "Actual" Pt Diff % Diff
18-Apr-03 450.00 453.72 +3.72 +0.83%
16-May-03 480.00 475.72 -4.28 -0.89%
20-Jun-03 500.00 502.40 +2.40 +0.48%
18-Jul-03 500.00 501.50 +1.50 +0.30%
15-Aug-03 500.00 498.30 -1.70 -0.34%
19-Sep-03 520.00 520.62 +0.62 0.12%
17-Oct-03 520.00 518.12 -1.88 -0.36%
21-Nov-03 520.00 511.78 -8.22 -1.58%
19-Dec-03 540.00 540.26 +0.26 +0.05%
16-Jan-04 560.00 564.72 +4.72 +0.84%
20-Feb-04 570.00 564.88 -5.12 -0.90%
19-Mar-04 550.00 543.68 -6.32 -1.15%
16-Apr-04 560.00 554.94 -5.06 -0.90%
21-May-04 530.00 534.34 +3.34 +0.63%
18-Jun-04 550.00 554.80 +4.80 +0.87%

For example, the April peak open interest settled at the 560 strike during the last week before expiration. We recommended opening a Bullish Put Spread on Tuesday, April 13th, selling the Apr 550 Put and buying the Apr 545 Put, for a $1.30 credit. Since the OEX closed at 554.94 on Friday, both of our options expired worthless and we captured the full credit, less commissions. We were only "in the market" for four days and realized a 26% return on the trade.

The POI strategy has been consistently profitable. In fact, over the past fifteen months, it has never had a loser in simulated options trading. Below are the results of our last five trades in real time. The average percent profit for the five trades (not including commissions) has been 26.0%. And we were only "exposed" to the market less than five days each month.

Expire "Spread" "Credit" % Profit Days Traded
20-Feb-04 Bullish Put $190 38% 5
19-Mar-04 Bullish Put $135 27% 4
16-Apr-04 Bullish Put $130 26% 4
21-May-04 Bullish Put $140 28% 4
18-Jun-04 Bearish Call $55 11% 4

The POI system has a number of advantages over buying call or put options. Most options traders end up losing money due to the inherent difficulty of consistently being on the right side of the trade and the fact that options are "wasting assets". The POI strategy overcomes most of these disadvantages by:

  • Accurately defining the range where the OEX will close at expiration.
  • Reducing "market exposure" to one week or less.
  • Consistently returning 15% to 25% on investment per month.
  • Limiting downside risk by the use of "market if touched" stop orders.

The Premium Collapse Indicator (PCI) is similar to the POI in that it trades OEX and QQQ credit spreads. The PCI finds set-ups where the option premium has a high probability of declining rapidly. When a set-up is triggered, we establish a credit spread to take advantage of the rapid premium decay. In back-testing, this strategy had 12 winning OEX trades with no losers and 14 winning QQQ trades with just one loser. Trading the OEX, we typically receive a $1.00 credit for a $5.00 spread, or a 20% return on capital. The PCI trades are never executed during the last week before expiration, so they do not conflict with our Peak Open Interest trades.

The POI and PCI strategies give us at least one, and most times, two opportunities each month the earn on average a 20% return per trade. If you would like to receive timely updates on these strategies, just send an email to info@stockmarkettimer.com and ask to be put on our distribution list. There is no cost or obligation.

The COT Report:   The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers sold some 500 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -8,078 contracts. Large Traders remained net short -27,365 contracts, with the entire offsetting net long position of +35,443 contracts held by Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials bought some 900 contracts to bring their net long position to +3,884 contracts. Small Traders were net short -4,467 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money sell some 300 contracts to bring their net long position to +6,766 contracts.

Commercial Hedgers were better sellers in the S&P's last week, while Small Traders were better buyers, although the amount of contracts traded was insignificant. For the intermediate term, their opposing net positions should still be considered bearish.

Sentiment Surveys:   The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed that the percentage of bullish newsletter writers came in at 56.1%, while the percentage of bears was just 17.4%. The bullish ratio (bulls/bulls +bears) was 76.3%.

The latest AAII survey showed an increase to 57% bulls, and an decrease to just 16% bears. The bullish ratio came in at 78%, while the 4-week moving average remains high at 72%. One thing to note about the AAII survey is that, while membership in this organization is quite large as investor groups go, the number of members that actually participate in the survey is very small. Thus, large fluctuations in survey results from week to week are not uncommon.

The latest Market Vane survey came in at 66%, indicating that the majority of commodity trading advisors (CTA's) remain bullish on the future direction of the S&P's.

The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days:   Friday's price action was mixed, so we don't have a clear directional bias for Tuesday. Friday's trading was light ahead of the 3-day weekend, with both the S&P's and the Naz forming narrow range days. Narrow range days, called "wimp" days are often transition points in the market trend. Both the NYSE TRIN-5 and Up Volume indicators triggered buy signals again on Friday, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq is still showing weakness. On the negative side, the Dow Transports fell 25 pts and turned the TRAN:INDU Ratio lower. The Transports had been leading the Dow higher, so it's reversal can be seen as bearish. On the positive side, the 10-yr T-Note yield dropped to 4.46%, its lowest level in two months. That had a positive effect on rate-sensitive stocks like the financials and homebuilders, but the suggestion of economic weakness pushed the techs lower. The NDX has support at the 1450-52 level, which is also its 50-day moving average.

SMT's Pivot Point Forecast; 1-2 Weeks:   Our Pivot Point RS indicator is on a sell signal. Our next Pivot Point is forecast to occur on or near July 2nd.

The 60-mn NDX chart below shows that the StochRSI indicator is in the NEUTRAL zone. For Tuesday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 1129 and then 1133. Support lies at 1122 and then 1118. For the Naz, resistance comes in at 1496 and then 1504. Support lies at 1480 and then 1471.

The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks:   Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) is the world's largest company based on sales. WMT is a bellwether stock for the S&P 500 Index and is unique in that it often leads the benchmark index by two to four weeks. The chart below shows that WMT clearly diverged from the SPX when it started selling off after hitting a high back on June 8th. If the so-called summer rally is to take hold, we'll need to see WMT start working its way higher real soon.

Our Market Trend Indicator (MTI) generated a SELL signal last Thursday. For those who follow this indicator, we have switched to the negative beta index funds.

Good Trading!

Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:


Back to top

Last week's Fresh Picks were a mixed bag in an overall ugly market environment. However, with the developments in Iraq, last weeks highlighted stocks were meant as more of a longer-term set of stocks-to-watch in the growing FTTP space. So make sure to keep an eye on these plays as summer heats up and the technology around this market begins to roll out. We anticipate solid long-term results from the stocks below and will continue to follow them throughout the second half of 2004.

Symbol Current Price 52-week high/low Short-term Target
1-week change
GLW $12.71 $7.15 / $13.89 $14.50 -1.4%
VZ $35.77 $31.10 / $40.25 $40.00 +1%
EXFO $4.86 $2.55 / $7.20 $6.00 +9.1%
SBC $23.80 $21.16 / $27.73 $24.90 +1.3%
BLS $25.16 $23.15 / $31.00 $27.50 +3.5%
AVNX $3.83 $2.55 / $7.57 $4.25 -7.3%
JNPR $23.89 $12.10 / $31.25 $26.50 -1%
LU $3.80 $1.59 / $5.00 $4.15 -6.8%
JDSU $3.82 $2.60 / $5.88 $4.10 -7%

Make sure to also have a look at the Track Record page on the site for our 2003 monthly breakdown showing each and every Fresh Pick from the year, along with its price when recommended and where it ended the year. For specific targets and stops, please see the archives.

Have you traded any of our recommended plays along the way? We'd love to hear from you and how you did. Please send your stories to comments@talkingpoints.com.

TECH WATCH: Challenges and Changes for Next Generation Internet / by Jeff Neal, Technical Market Columnist

Back to top

Jeff Neal is a veteran options strategist and trader with over a decade of experience in the trading business. Jeff has had a diversified business career operating a very successful management consulting business with his clients representing some of the largest companies in the world.

He has a B.S. in Computer Science from Indiana University and an MBA in Finance from the University of Indianapolis. Jeff is a writer, mentor, and options strategist for Optionetics (http://www.optionetics.com/) and as head of his own hedge fund is an active options trader in both the equity and futures markets.

Jeff Neal - Staff Writer & Options Strategist - Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

Jeff Neal
Tech Watch

Hi-Tech Memory Cards Shaping the Digital Camera Sector

The new memory cards embedded in the latest digital cameras have allowed customers to shoot both videos and photos with the same device. The improvement in new memory card technology has provided many digital cameras to now offer much better image quality while at the same time add much faster processing times. The technology will have significant ramifications in the digital camera space, as some of the possibilities are quite exciting going forward.

One of the better features afforded by memory cards is its portability. Photographers can now go on a shoot over rugged terrain without having to carry a relative larger and clumsier piece of equipment like a camcorder. This is because they can now pack a much smaller digital camera that can capture both still photos and video which is just what many avid photographers have been clamoring for.

The latest improvements in the memory card technology have finally addressed the key issues with digital cameras. In the past the video clips inside of digital cameras only provide silent video and had a time limitation less than 30 seconds. The resolution was also very poor only filling less than 25 percent of television screen with a very jerky image when being replayed.

What has happened with the new memory card capabilities is that now the latest digital camera models can now offer videos that are unlimited in length. Even though it still doesn’t compare to a camcorder shoot most customers have really embraced the portability and improved video features. In fact, digital cameras are one of the best selling hi-tech products across the globe. The market is particularly strong in late spring for things like graduations. The summer season also is strong with many people taking vacations and of course the winter holidays always show very robust sales numbers.

The current digital camera limitations as compared to camcorder revolve around the storage, sound, and zooming capabilities. Images stored on the digital devices use memory cards instead of film. To maximize the amount of video a customer can get on a card the customer needs at least a 1-gigabyte memory card ranging from $200 to $300 in cost. These cards are reusable and their images can be transferred to hard drives. Conversely, the camcorder utilizes MiniDV tape. The price is much less with a 60-minutes cassette tap costing less than $5.

Sound and zooming features are also key differentiators. Digital cameras record in mono using tiny embedded microphones with lower quality than camcorders since they shoot in stereo. Most digital camera devices do not have the capability to zoom in and out while shooting video however camcorders can do so.

These limitations still have not dampened consumer enthusiasm for digital cameras. According to IDC research digital camera sales should show a 40 percent improvement in 2004 compared to 2003 with an estimated 70 million expected to be sold. The competition in this arena has started to become quite fierce led primarily by Sony and Cannon, which are the current leaders in market share. Their strength in the camcorder market allows these companies to apply their video expertise to the digital camera market segment. This knowledge should bode well for these two companies since video will be one of the key differentiators with these cameras in the future.

Look for memory cards to continue to improve along with better features being continually offered as the digital camera market continues to evolve. In addition, as this technology gets even better and more prevalent look for video cellphones to really start to take off and become the next big market winner.

Happy Trading.

MARKET TA: Riding the Waves / by Dale Woodson, Technical Market Columnist

Back to top

Dale Woodson is the editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

We encourage our subscribers to visit his site at http://www.woodsonwave.com and please see Dale's complete bio following his column.

Dale Woodson

Dale Woodson
Market TA columnist

TIMER DIGEST’S (P.O. BOX 1688, Greenwich, CT. 06836/ 203-629-3503)

















Year 2012



1932 or 1942


Year 2012*



12/6/74 or 8/12/82


Year 2012





.618 = 5803





Complete @ 8062 on 9/21/01





Complete @ 10,673 on 3/19/02





Complete @ 7197 on 10/10/02





Topping, high 10,753 on 2/19/04





 .500 = 6865/ .618 = 5803





Year 2012

* "…it should terminate about the year 2012"

* "...not expected to terminate until about 2012"

R. N. Elliott, Educational Bulletin O

R.N. Elliott, Interpretive Letter No. 17

October 26, 1942.



August 25, 1941.

Primary degree wave 2 down (1987 - 1990) running flat correction.

Primary degree wave 3 up (1990 - 1999)



Primary degree wave 4 down (8/24/99 -?)





In our blueprint for wave (E) down in the May 10 report, we had proposed an ideal wave structure that labeled this third wave as complete today, May 18, 2004. Wave one came to completion a fibonacci 34 days after the wave (D) high on 3/24/04. A fibonacci 89 days from that high marks today, May 18, 2004. As I write this at midday, the market appears stuck in a fourth wave, which upon completion, will yield to wave five down. The end of this third wave is near and should come to completion within the next day or so.

The May 13 email alert noted that the Dow had just completed wave iii of v of 3 down. The chart above illustrates that point. Of course, third waves are always followed by fourth waves. Note that the fourth wave high should hold below the previous first wave low. In this case, that mark is 10,285. The fibonacci retracement levels for this fourth wave remain as stated in the May 13 email alert at 10,055 and 10,180.

At a minimum, the wave v of 3 should break below the 9853 low of wave iii for completion. Wave 3 will gain equality with wave 1 at Dow 9788 and this third wave will gain a fibonacci 1.1618 ratio to wave one at Dow 9326.

Dale Woodson is editor of Woodson Wave Report, a market-timing newsletter. Woodson Wave Report identifies turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 index as well as the bond and gold markets using Elliott Wave analysis and fibonacci ratios. Since publishing the newsletter began online in 1998, Woodson Wave Report has been downloaded in twenty-five different countries.

Timer Digest rates Woodson Wave Report as the #5 stock market timer and #5 bond market timer for the three-year period from 12/31/98 through 12/31/2001. Woodson broke into the top ten rated stock market timers by placing #7 in the year 2000. He followed that up with a #4 rating for the year in 2001. These ratings were achieved during a period when market timing was extremely difficult as the bull market was turning over to bear and most were caught off guard.

While there is no feeling like catching a turn on the dime, Dale especially enjoys writing the newsletter. He is most proud of the numerous correspondences complimenting him on his writing abilities. He has a real passion for his work. He knows that the market will move in certain Elliott wave patterns and fibonacci sequences. His challenge is to identify those patterns and sequences in advance, while there is still time to profit from them.

Woodson Wave Report offers monthly, quarterly and yearly subscriptions. Newsletters are delivered via email and URL links and are published on the first Friday of every month. Special interim reports are released as market conditions warrant and targets are achieved. All new annual subscribers receive two months free.

You can subscribe to Woodson Wave Report via the secure online order form link below: http://www.woodsonwave.com/orderform.html

Disclaimer: The Woodson Wave Report combines Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci ratios to identify turning point targets in the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 cash, bond and gold markets with respect to both price and time. The monthly newsletter is generally released on the first Friday of the month and special interim reports are issued as market conditions warrant and as targets are achieved. The information contained in the report is prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be taken as an offer to buy or sell any investment vehicle. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Woodson Wave Report is waived of any liabilities.

GOLD RUSH: Gold Bull Returns to Range/ by John Dowdee, Ph.D., Gold Editor

Back to top

Gold Bull Returns to Range

Gold opened the week at $403.20 and meandered upward to $405.70 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the bear attacked, driving the yellow metal backwards by over $8.00 an ounce (to a low of $391). The bull then bounced off its 50 day moving average and started a new trek upwards, closing the week at $398.70 (slightly above the 200 day moving average at $397.47). The bull thus returned to its trading range (between $370 and $400) that has characterized its behavior over the last few months. First support is now around the $390 level with resistance at the psychologically important $400 level. Even though next week is Independence Day, I would not expect a lot of fireworks in the gold market. As we have stated previously, the summer months are typically a quite time and I don’t expect gold to either blast upwards to a new high or sink into the abyss.

Long term I am still a firm believer in precious metals, mainly because I am a bearish on the dollar. Bonds rallied after the Fed announcement and then on Friday, the jobs picture was not that good. The combination of lower interest and poor economics caused the greenback to sink to 87.99, the low end of its support range. The dollar is now well below both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages and has to rise above 90 to keep the dollar healthy. Otherwise look out below.

Gold stocks, as measured by the XAU index, mirrored the action in bullion. After opening at 89.04, the XAU plunged downward, closing the gap left by the bullish action of the previous week. Mimicking gold, the XAU bounced off the 50 day moving average and then began a comeback, closing the week at 87.24, slightly above the 200 day moving average. Support is now around 80 to 85 with resistance between 95 to 100.

If you followed my lead and accumulated gold stocks on weakness, then last week offered numerous opportunities. However, if you are just starting to add gold to your portfolio, there is still plenty of time. I would suggest that you take a look at Barrick (ABX). This is a “blue chip” mining stock that I believe is still undervalued. As shown in the chart, ABX is tracing out a triangular pattern that has support between $19.50 and $19.78. A purchase at $20 with a stop near at $19.50, would only risk $0.50 but would still offer good upside potential (if gold eventually breaks out to a new high). As always, when speculating in the gold market, caution is the watchword! You should never rely on anyone’s opinion except your own. Gold stocks are volatile and not for everyone. You should do your own due diligence and evaluate your risk tolerance before making decisions to buy (or sell) any stocks or funds. Best of luck!

MR. SWING'S PLACE: Weekly Swing Trading Ideas / by Larry Swing

Back to top

Each week, Mr. Swing analyzes his database of more than 9,200 securities to scan for swing trading opportunities. But be warned: Do not expect a fast way to make money. Mr. Swing is going to show you how you can accumulate small gains weekly, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach. While he realizes that this short-term swingtrading approach is not for everyone, he hopes that the information given at MrSWING.com will be useful to you in the near future...

These are your Swing Trading Opportunities for this week:

Talking Points member - Over the nearly two years that we have carried the Mr. Swing's Place column, Larry's picks have consistently put in great performances. Don't miss out on the full swing-trading content available at Mr. Swing.com. Take advantage of some of the great programs available by clicking here.

Long Swings:


^ click here
JPM,J.P. Morgan Chase & Co
MU,Micron Technology
EBAY,eBay Inc
DIS,Disney (Walt) Co


Short Swings:


^ click here
FE,FirstEnergy Corp
PFGC,Performance Food Group
NVS,Novartis AG ADS
MKC,McCormick & Co

^ click here
YHOO,Yahoo Inc
TLAB,Tellabs, Inc
JNPR,Juniper Networks
EBAY,eBay Inc
ALTR,Altera Corp

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5
^ click here
ELY,Callaway Golf
TRID,Trident Microsystems
PFGC,Performance Food Group
UDR,United Dominion Rlty Tr
ALD,Allied Capital

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5
^ click here
YHOO,Yahoo Inc
TYC,Tyco Intl
ALTR,Altera Corp
SOTR,SouthTrust Corp

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1 and HIGH1< HIGH2

^ click here
BRL,Barr Pharmaceuticals
FMT,Fremont Genl
PFGC,Performance Food Group

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH> HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2

^ click here
JNPR,Juniper Networks
EBAY,eBay Inc
IWM,iShares Russell 2000 Index Tr
SOTR,SouthTrust Corp
NBR,Nabors Indus


^ click here
KO,Coca-Cola Co
AXP,Amer Express
BRL,Barr Pharmaceuticals


^ click here
ABX,Barrick Gold
PAAS,Pan Amer Silver
BBX,BankAtlantic Bancorp

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >= 0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE > SMAC50
^ click here

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1) >= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC50
^ click here
^ click here

^ click here
HNT,Health Net

^ click here
^ click here
SFI,iStar FinancialA

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW )
^ click here
ESPD,eSpeed IncA
PPP,Pogo Producing
BORL,Borland Software

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW)
^ click here

NYB,New York Community Bancorp
CRL,Charles River Labs Intl

^ click here
PENN,Penn National Gaming


REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...

NEXM (Long) - Chart of the Week
Larry Swing



NEXM has broken out of a trading range, and now has very bullish technical studies:

  • Positive Money Flow
  • A MACD breakout after a long period of the MACD slowly trending towards zero.
  • A volume surge during the stock’s breakout
  • A completed double bottom pattern, with a higher low after the second bottom
  • Negative divergence against the NASDAQ


    These bullish technical measures combined suggest significant upside for the stock.


    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index


    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index


    MrSwings Real-Time Stock Charts RISK-FREE TRIAL featuring one-click access to Larry Swing's profit-generating indicators - Force Index, EquiVolume, True Strength Index



    Mr.Swing DISCLAIMER: Information for the stock observations was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MRSWING.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the strategies described above. © Copyright 2002, MrSwing.com. All rights reserved. COPYING AND OR ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF THIS DOCUMENT WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONSENT OF MRSWING.COM IS A VIOLATION OF THE COPYRIGHT LAW.

    THE TRADER'S MINDSET: How to Align Your Beliefs With the Market / by Bennett McDowell, Columnist

    Back to top

    Founder and President of TradersCoach.com, Bennett started his financial career on Wall Street with the firm J.J. Kenny Co. in 1984 after serving as an officer in the U.S. Navy. Bennett also served as a Retirement Plan Specialist with the Equitable in New York and has investment real estate experience as well. In addition, his 1979 Economics BA degree from Syracuse University in upstate New York gave him a foundation on which he was able to build a solid background in Finance.

    Bennett has extensive experience in trading the financial markets and is currently an active trader including day trading the financial futures markets. He also coaches many traders through his company TradersCoach.com.

    Considered an expert in technical analysis and complex computer trading platforms and applications, Bennett has educated and helped traders worldwide improve their trading. Bennett is well known for helping traders overcome sabotaging psychological issues that keep them from reaching their full potential. In addition to his educational and coaching abilities, Bennett, a registered securities broker, manages money and trades for clients throughout the United States.

    Bennett released his home study course Applied Reality Trading, also known as "ART" in January 2002. His cutting-edge course teaches traders his state of the art Pyramid Trading Points, Money management, and developing the "Trader's Mindset." Bennett is also known for developing The Trader's Assistant - a premier trade-posting record-keeping system for traders, as well as writing and publishing The Survival Guide For Traders, a book on how to set up and organize your trading business.

    Bennett provides private consultation/coaching services to many traders throughout the world by telephone, video conferencing, and in person. Working with Bennett, traders spend time focusing on trading system development, trading psychology, and disciplined money management.


    The Trader's Mindset Columnist
    We All Trade By Our Unique "Beliefs”
    How To Align Your Beliefs With The Market


    You may not even realize it, but you trade in accordance with your own belief system.  And if you are not successful, it is because you are trading with a trading system that is not in alignment with your unique beliefs about the markets.  Also, some of your beliefs may not be valid for use in the markets.  Let me explain:

    First let's define what a person's "belief system" is. A person's belief system is a set of sometimes conscious and sometimes unconscious rules we have about life, trading, money, relationships, etc., etc.  Beliefs shape how you see or interpret reality.  Every one of us has a unique set of beliefs which make up our belief system.  Our upbringing, our environment, life experiences, etc. all come together to form our belief system.  So we can basically say that our personality is shaped by our belief system. In fact, just about everything we do is shaped in some way by our belief system.

    Great traders are those traders that can accept who they are, thus accepting their beliefs both positive and negative.  Because once you can accept yourself as you are, you also accept and take responsibility for yourself and both your positive and negative beliefs.  You can realize your short comings and strengths as well.  This can help you determine how to successfully trade the markets.

    Thus, by “accepting” yourself, you can actually help your trading by aligning both your positive beliefs and negative beliefs with not only your trading system, but the markets themselves.

    Let's say for example that you do not like to go with the crowd, you are “a loner” in life, and you do not like to conform to authority figures, corporate environments, etc.  In other words, you have a belief about going with the crowd that you do not like (the reasons may be unknown for you, but if you dig deep enough, you can find out why). Do you think you will be a good trend trader?  Do you think you will like to trade with trend and go with the crowd of traders trading with this trend?

    I doubt it! Because in this example, your beliefs are in direct conflict with going with the crowd so to speak. And in the markets that would mean trading with the the trend. Thus as a trader, if you are using a trend following trading system, you are trading in direct conflict with your beliefs. And success will be highly unlikely. In fact you will probably fight a trending market the entire way!  And chances are you will not be successful and feel like once again you are the victim of the masses!!!

    Now let's see how to approach the market by aligning that same “loner” belief system with the markets to be successful.  Step One: is to accept yourself as having that belief to begin with.  Step Two: once you accept your beliefs, find a set of trading entries or a trading system that satisfies those beliefs. In this example, that would be to find trades that allow you a low risk entry to counter trend trade the trends or use corrections in the trend to get a good, unique entry to take advantage of other traders which represent the crowd so to speak.  That way you are not trading with the crowd, but you are either trading against the crowd (countertrend trading) or taking advantage of the trend (crowd) by getting in at a better price in relation to the other traders.  The point here is to find a way for your trading entries to satisfy your beliefs thus aligning your beliefs with the markets!  If you can do this successfully, then you don't need to change your beliefs!

    However, there are times when you may want to attempt to change your beliefs. This will be a personal decision that only you can make.  A quick example of this is one from my own trading:

    For the longest time I struggled with getting out of trades too soon.  Technically I would make great entries and set well defined stops, but it was hard for me to stay with trades for a long enough time to see big money.  I finally overcame this by confronting reality and being brutally honest with myself and my beliefs.  The problem was not with my abilities or technical evaluations, it was with my emotions structured by my belief system.  In fact, my technical analysis was usually right on the mark.  But time and time again, I would get out too soon because my emotions and anxiety took over and literally would force me out of the trade to take a quick profit. I wanted to take that quick profit emotionally before the market reversed and took it away from me. 

    I had to change my beliefs about money, fear, and how the markets work.  When trending, markets usually correct, and then trend, correct again, and then trend again.  So I had to change my beliefs about the market to accept this.  And also change my beliefs about taking a quick profit verses letting the market give me all it wants before the trend ends.  Of course intertwined in my unrealistic beliefs about the market, was the fear of losing money, etc., etc.,etc.!  Well, that was a belief that I wanted to change and worked on it until I did!  It was a slow process and even today, I sometimes get the urge to take a quick profit, but instead of doing that, I will wait for the market to tell me when to exit my profitable trades. Now I insure I do not trade on an emotional level. If you find yourself trading based on your emotions, you need to stop trading and get help with your trading.

    So take some time, get to know yourself, your beliefs (both negative & positive), accept them, and own them.  Then decide on which ones to change and which ones to align with the markets.  I think you will find amazing results just as I did!

    Remember also that trading systems are nothing more than the "tools" you will use to trade well.  Use trading systems that align your beliefs with that of the markets.  One note here is that our home study trading course called "APPLIED REALITY TRADING" does just that, it helps to match your beliefs with trading signals so that you are trading in alignment with not only your beliefs, but the market as well!

    Remember this; "Nothing in life worth doing comes easy or else everyone would be doing it!"

    Bennett McDowell, President
    Free Video – Trading The Perfect Business!
    10755-F Scripps Poway Parkway, #477
    San Diego, CA. 92131

    Copyrighted © 2003 TradersCoach.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

    CONTRARIAN CORNER / by Jeff Weber, Columnist

    Back to top

    As a leading contrary investing expert, Jeff has written own investing book, I Guarantee You Will Buy Low Sell High and Make Money, which shows you when to buy and sell the stocks he recommends in his book. You can order the book by clicking on the title and it comes with a free one-year subscription to his newsletter, one month of coaching articles, and one year free email support.

    Jeff Weber of JJJ Investing Services
    Jeff Weber
    Jeff Weber
    Contrarian Columnist

    Contrarian Corner will return next week

    INSIDE TRACK: Weekly Insider Report / By Jeff Williams

    Back to top

    Jeff Williams is a partner with http://www.insiderreview.com For the past seven years Jeff has done extensive investment research as a member of an institutional investment team. His background consists of a degree in Finance from the University of South Florida with a minor in Economics. Jeff's everyday activities as an insider stock analyst consist of analyzing data available through a multiple of sources as it applies to all publicly traded companies. With this information he can then make short-term and long-term evaluations on a company’s present and future performance based on insider buying patterns. Each month Jeff will share with you his thoughts on stocks he believes to display the most interesting insider buying patterns.

    Jeff Williams
    Inside Track Columnist

    Interesting Buy Patterns
    Open market insider trading activity for ECHO June 2004

    Electronic Clearing House, Inc.

    Electronic Clearing House, Inc. (ECHO) is an electronic payment processor that provides for the payment processing needs of merchants, banks and collection agencies. The Company derives the majority of its revenues from two main business segments, bankcard and transaction processing services (bank card services), whereby it provides solutions to merchants and banks to allow them to accept credit and debit card payments from consumers, and check-related products (check services), whereby it provides various services to merchants and banks to allow them to accept and process check payments from consumers. The principal services ECHO offers within the bank card services segment are debit and credit card processing, and with respect to the check services segment, it offers check guarantee, check verification, electronic check conversion, check re-presentment and check collection services.

    Mr. Seltzer joined ECHO in August 2002 as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Information Officer. Prior to joining ECHO, Mr. Seltzer was the CIO and co-founder of Online Resources Corporation, an e-financial services outsourcer providing home banking, bill payment, and integrated third-party financial services to small and medium-sized U.S. banks. Mr. Seltzer holds a BS degree in Applied Math and Computer Science from MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts and an MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business in Stanford, California.

    Impressive to see this large purchase by the Chief Operating Officer, Seltzer.  We like the fact that he is in a very knowledgeable position.  He has also been with the company since 2002, yet this is the largest purchase he as made to date.  Why the large purchase now? This "out of the blue" purchase by Seltzer looks interesting and in our opinion is a good indication of continued strong fundamentals and a higher stock price on the way at ECHO.

    From our Readers:

    Back to top

    Do you have comments, thoughts or opinions on Talking Points that you would like to share? Email them to letters@talking-points.com.

    FRESH PICKS: On the Prowl

    Back to top

    Weekly Stock Picks From Bob Coppo - New Feature!  

    Top Stock Picks for Tuesday, July 6th, 2004:

    Bob Coppo is Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst for JNL Financial Consultants, Inc. The company has operated StockmarketTimer.com on the internet since 1997 and provides investment advice to both individual and institutional clients. Make sure to visit his site, StockMarketTimer.com.

    1. AMKR (Amkor Technology, Inc., Semiconductors) $5.88 - Buy. With a high degree of uncertainty still unfolding in Iraq, including the reduction of up to 50% of oil exports due to sabotage and the resulting increase in oil prices to once again near $40 per barrel, we are approaching the week ahead with caution. We start off the week with semiconductor play AMKR, coming off a Friday intraday low that hit a new 52-week abyss. "Amkor Technology, Inc. is a subcontractor of semiconductor packaging and test services. The Company provides customers with an array of packaging alternatives, including traditional leadframe, advanced leadframe and laminate packages, in both wirebond and flip chip formats. It produces more than 1,000 package type. Amkor is also an assembler of complementary metal oxide silicon image sensor devices used in digital cameras and cellular telephones and micro-electromechanical system devices used in a variety of end markets, including automotive, industrial and personal entertainment. In addition, the Company offers a line of services to test digital, logic, analog and mixed signal semiconductor devices. The semiconductors that the Company packages and tests for its customers ultimately become components in electronic systems used in communications, computing, consumer, industrial, automotive and military applications." There's a lot to like about AMKR, including strong revenue growth. For the three-month period ended March, revenues rose 35% to $464.6 million while net income from continuing operations totaled $10.9 million vs. a loss of $40 million. Most recent annual numbers show revenue growing at a strong 14%. Insiders have been nibbling at the stock as well lately, at prices quite a bit higher than Friday's close, another positive. Additional fundamentals that stirred our interest included a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.59, and a very attractive forward P/E of 6.61. Still, the stock is down over 57% for the 52-week period, and took a huge beating on Thursday on a hefty earnings warning. Amkor lost 29% Thursday after it cut its second-quarter outlook by $0.11 per share, citing pressure on gross margins. AMKR now expects to earn around $0.06 and anticipates its gross margin for the quarter will come in at around 19% but still expects sales will rise about 6% from the prior quarter. With the stock now deeply oversold, and we'd say undervalued as well, we'd look for a bounce to come into play here this week. Friday's close was above the line, and is likely to inspire buying Tuesday. We'd look to the April low of $7.80 as an initial target, with a stop trigger just below Friday's 52-week low of $5.66. Short-term price target: $7.80 (33% gain) Stop loss trigger: $5.55 (6% loss)

    AMKR Chart

    2. WEBM (webMethods, Inc., Software and Programming) $5.63 - Buy. Our second pick for the week ahead is another that got torn apart last week, down more than 30% on Friday alone following a warning related to the company's inability to close a number of large deals in the quarter. "webMethods, Inc. is a provider of software and services for comprehensive end-to-end integration solutions. The Company develops and delivers software products and provides related services that give organizations the ability, seamlessly and in real time, to integrate disparate information resources, to connect customers, vendors and business partners with the organization and its employees, to view and manage the connected information resources, data, business processes and human workflows and to provide Web services at the enterprise level. webMethods' integration platform is a comprehensive solution for linking business processes, enterprise and legacy application software products, databases, human workflows and Web services both within and across business enterprises and government organizations." There's a lot less to like in the fundamentals with WEBM as opposed to AMKR. What we do like is the short-term trading potential of a bounce of Friday's 30%+ loss. The only positive in the fundamentals is that WEBM has a decent amount of cash on its balance sheet, and not much debt, so we aren't likely to wake up to find the company in bk anytime in the next week. Friday's closing price puts WEBM more than 39% off its 52-week high, with a corrective turn to the mid-$6 range, or even $7 a possibility given market cooperation. If the Nasdaq looks weak as a whole, you might want to pass on this one. Either way, keep an eye on level II for buy interest to come in before entry. As it is now, the only support below is at Friday's intraday low of $5.35, so look to use that as a stop trigger. Short-term price target: $6.50 (15% gain) Stop loss trigger: $5.30 (6% loss)

    WEBM Chart

    As always, do your own research before buying or selling any security. Our recommendations are for informational purposes only and are only our opinions. Make sure to read our Disclaimer

    List Maintenance:

    Back to top

    Online issues can be found at
    and click on the "Past Issues" menu item.


    Back to top

    1. We are not brokers, investment advisors, or securities dealers. Our newsletter is provided as our personal opinions and are for informational purposes only.

    2. Information on our website may contain "forward looking statements" as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

    3. Always research your own investments, and consult your investment advisor before investing.

    4. Visit the Securities Exchanges Commission website and read about how to avoid internet scams.

    5. Understand that we at Talking-Points.com may buy stock in the companies that we recommend in our newsletter, and may sell those shares after recommending them.

    6. Small-cap companies, micro-cap companies, penny stocks and/or thinly traded shares are highly risky and volatile investments. You risk losing some or all of the money you invest.

    7. We disclose any and all compensations received from companies profiled or mentioned on the site in accordance with the 1933 Securities Act Section 17 (b).

    Our Picks

    The stocks profiled on Talking-Points.com are only the opinions of Talking-Points.com and its representatives. These opinions are based on our research, which may be extensive or limited, done on each individual stock. Our sources include, but are not limited to, online research, company profiles, member suggestions, past performance, magazines, newspapers, analyst suggestions, broker recommendations, contact with the company, company rumors, and other similar information sources. All opinions are based on information that is accessible by the public.

    Risks Involved

    Investing in stocks involves risk. You should consult a qualified financial advisor or stock broker before making any decisions to invest. Stocks reviewed on this website or through email are for informational purposes only. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.

    Accuracy of Information is not Guaranteed

    Talking-Points.com works to verify the accuracy of all information contained on its website but does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Talking-Points.com does not represent itself to be, nor is it a registered investment advisor or stock broker. As advised before, you should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance of stocks profiled on this website is not a guarantee as to future performance. The performance of other members choosing to invest in any stocks profiled on this site may or may not be an indication as to your performance.

    Our Positions in the Stocks Mentioned

    Talking-Points.com and its representatives reserve the right to buy and sell any stock mentioned on this web site. Talking-Points.com reserves the right to buy or sell any of these profiled stocks before, during and immediately after they are posted to the site. Talking-Points.com is not responsible for any gains or losses incurred do to investing in these opinions.

    Our Relationship to You as a Subscriber

    Obtaining a subscription to the emailed newsletter does not in any way create any principle-agent relationship between Talking-Points.com and the recipient. Receipt of the recommended stocks, either via email, or directly from our website, is not in any way a recommendation to buy or sell but is just the opinion of StockTalkReport.com and its representatives and should be used for informational purposes only.

    Compensation Received if Any

    As in compliance with the 1933 Securities Act Sect. 17 (b) any and all compensation received from a company is publicly stated.

    Forward Looking Statements

    Information presented on the Talking-Points.com web site and supplied through the newsletter may contain "forward looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, goals, assumptions or future events or performance are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward looking statements." Forward looking statements are based on expectations, estimates and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. Forward looking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as "projects", "foresee", "expects'", "will," "anticipates," "estimates," "believes," "understands" or that by statements indicating certain actions "may," "could," or "might" occur.

    General Risks, Research and Types of Orders

    Short-term trading can be extremely risky. It is highly recommended that when ever making a decision to buy or sell you use limit orders. As with any investment decision, careful research should be done before making any decision to invest. As with any decision to invest it is usually recommended that you use limit orders, especially in fast moving, volatile stocks. You should only invest money that you are willing to lose. We also encourage you to read up on the SEC policies regarding online newsletters. Also before investing online please visit the Securities Exchanges Commission website and read about how to avoid internet scams.

    Copyright © 2002-2003, StockTalkReport.com and Talking-Points.com